渤海与环渤海地区年降水量的统计分析

本文以渤海海域及环渤海地区分水岭内为研究区域,利用环渤海地区分水岭内92个气象站点自1971年至2000年30年的降水量资料,基于ARC/INFO地理信息系统支持下的泰森多边形法,对研究区域内的平均年降水量进行了统计分析。结论如下:环渤海地区分水岭以内区域的平均年降水量占整个环渤海地区2000年降水量的63.88%;渤海海域海水直接利用量占该海域平均年降水量的8.82%,其中辽东湾的海水利用量占该湾平均年降水量的3.09%,渤海湾为15.86%,莱州湾为17.38%;辽东湾2002年的海冰资源量占该湾平均年降水量的6.08%。在渤海海域水量平衡的关系研究中,本研究是初步的,基础的。划出分水岭内的研究区域进行平均年降水量的统计较对整个环渤海地区进行统计更具精确性。     

Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.     

Mechanical compression release device in steel bracing system for retrofitting RC frames

1 Introduction Braced steel frames are commonly used to resist seismic loads. Their seismic behavior was extensively studied during the past decades (Bertero et al.., 1989; Roeder, 1989; Jain, 1978). Their design is governed by the buckling behavior of the bracing members (ASCE, 1994,2002; CSA, 1994). To prevent or delay the seismic buckling of compressive members in concentrically braced frames in steel structures, a great number of methods have been proposed. These include the use of sp…     

加里福尼亚南部岸外泥火山的甲烷成因方解石、13C亏损的双壳类贝壳以及气水合物

沿大陆边缘的气体和流体通量与构造—沉积过程和(产生冷泉、温泉和甲烷水合物的)物化条件有关(如Obzhirov等,2004)。我们对水合物进行了深入研究,因为它对块体坡移、能源、全球气候突然变化以及全球的碳质量平衡具有潜在的贡献。其中冷泉尤其重要,因为其与大的气体和流体通量、     

南沙他国侵占岛礁战略价值及空间格局评价

从建岛潜力、岛礁辐射能力和岛礁承载能力3个方面选取26个指标,采用主客观综合赋权法确定各因子权重,利用线性加权法获得被越南、菲律宾、马来西亚、文莱等国所侵占的南沙44个岛礁的战略价值,并对结果进行空间插值,分析其空间格局特征。结果表明：1）被马来西亚侵占的弹丸礁、越南侵占的南威岛、以及菲律宾侵占的中业岛,其战略价值位列前3,评价得分分别为100、98.42和97.09。2）岛礁辐射能力空间分布格局呈现“NW—SE条带式”,“最高”和“高”等级的区域由研究区西北延伸至东南,然后向东北、西南两侧递减,辐射能力格局中有2个核心区域和2个次级核心区域。承载能力空间分布格局呈现“横向条带式”,由北向南越来越低,有1个核心区域和2个次级核心区域。建岛潜力空间分布格局有3个核心区域及2个次级核心区域。3）岛礁战略价值空间分布格局有3个核心区域,分布于研究区中部、北部及南部,与越南、菲律宾、马来西亚密切相关的核心区域各有1个。越南侵占岛礁最多且空间分布较广,有2个次级核心区域也与越南密切相关,越占岛礁若进一步建设,将形成多核心协同的战略格局,需密切关注。     

南海与周边海域表层塑料颗粒交换的拉格朗日示踪研究

塑料污染已成为国际海洋界关注的海洋环境问题之一。文章探讨海洋环流对南海及其周边海域表层塑料颗粒交换的影响。在南海周边多个海域, 分别在4个季节投放塑料颗粒。一年后, 用拉格朗日颗粒示踪方法考察投放颗粒的运动轨迹和最终停留位置。结果表明, 在秋、冬季, 大部分塑料颗粒会进入南海和爪哇海, 极少部分颗粒北输送到太平洋; 在春、夏季, 仅有部分颗粒进入南海和爪哇海, 而多数颗粒流到太平洋。南海洋流具有季节特征, 塑料颗粒轨迹特征与之较为符合。     

Morphological and molecular evidence supports the first occurrence of two fishes,Siganus sutor(Valenciennes, 1835)and Seriolina nigrofasciata(Rüppell, 1829)(Actinopterygii:Perciformes), from marine waters of Odisha coast,Bay of Bengal,India

Marine ecosystems provide a wide variety of diverse habitats that frequently promote migration and ecological adaptation. The extent to which the geographic distribution of marine organism has reshaped by human activities remains underappreciated. The limitations intrinsic to morphology-based identification systems have engendered an urgent need for reliable genetic methods that enable the unequivocal recognition of fish species,particularly those that are prone to overexploitation and/or market substitution. In the present study, however, an attempt has been taken to identify two locally adapted fish species, Siganus sutor(Valenciennes, 1835) and Seriolina nigrofasciata(Rüppell, 1829) of order Perciformes, which happens to be the first record in Odisha coast,Bay of Bengal. The diagnostic characteristics of Siganus sutor are: dorsal fin XIII-10, anal fin VII-9, pectoral fin 15,pelvic fin II-3, while that of Seriolina nigrofasciata dorsal fin VI-I-35, anal fin I-17, pectoral fin 16, pelvic fin 5. All COI barcodes generated in this study were matched with reference sequences of expected species, according to morphological identification. Bayesian and likelihood phylogenetic trees were drawn based on DNA barcodes and all the specimens clustered in agreement with their taxonomic classification at the species level. The phylogeographic studies based on haplotype network and migration rates suggest that both the species were not panmitic and the high-frequency population distribution indicates successful migration. The result of this study provides an important validation of the use of DNA barcode sequences for monitoring species diversity and changes within a complex marine ecosystem.     

Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850

Since 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature(ST) estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused. In Connolly et al., we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance(TSI) and ST data sets.We compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by alter...     

《内经》“运气七篇”中关于天干记运的若干问题探讨

文章分析阐述了《内经》“运气七篇”中关于天干记运的若干问题,包括“天干配五行”和“天干化五运”之分、“五气经天化运说”的“五气经天化运图”排布特点、戊己分及天门地户之说以及五天五色之气辨,提出研究运气学说应遵循中国古代哲学的特点及其产生的背景、历史的演变过程,才能更好地把握运气学说的实质。     

中国省域尺度17部门资本存量的时空特征分析

随着灾害强度、频率以及承灾体暴露的增加,自然灾害造成的损失日益严重。资本存量作为承灾体的经济暴露指标之一,是灾害损失评估的前提和基础。针对目前中国缺乏省域尺度长时间序列的经济部门分类的资本存量数据基础,论文通过永续盘存法,建立了2003—2015年中国大陆31省17部门的资本存量数据库,并分析其时空特征。结果显示：① 全国总资本存量与灾害直接损失的年际变化均呈增加趋势。省域尺度上,通过相关性分析显示,在99%置信度水平上,两者呈显著正相关(r=0.3)。② 时间上,各省17部门资本存量基本也呈增加趋势,但增速不同。在各部门增速最快的省份中,黑龙江省的居民服务、修理和其他服务业增速最快,增长约454.3倍;其次是青海省的租赁和商务服务业(398.3倍)、江苏省的金融业(295.1倍)、安徽省的科学研究和技术服务业(125.1倍)等。③ 空间上,2015年各省17部门资本存量最多的前4个部门分别是房地产业,工业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,水利、环境和公共设施管理业,占比均在60%以上;且这4个部门资本存量暴露最多的省份是江苏省和广东省。该结果有助于从时空角度了解各省各部门资本存量暴露情况,为各省灾害风险管理者的防灾减灾工作提供重要的参考价值。