欧洲中期天气预报中心的业务系统

1.引言1979年8月1日欧洲中期天气预报中心(EC-MWF)向成员国用户发布它的第一个业务预报。为能做到这一点,必须研制适用于中期天气预报的数值模式,为每天做预报要收集和处理资料,并且制定把分析和预报结果分发给成员国的计划。现已把预报程序、业务工作中收集和处理输入资料程序以及从数值模式输出资料程序合并为一个完整的自动运行程序。这套程序就是欧洲中期天气预报中心的气象业务系统,内部用字头语“EMOS”称呼。2.业务系统的基本结构从原则上讲,所有气象中心业务预报系统制作数值预报的总体结构基本上是一样的。然而,详细     

美国地温分布与后一季降水的相关分析

利用1967—1981年美国100多个站的月平均地温资料,给出了各季(3个月)40吋深度的平均地温距平分布图。将它们分别与后一季的降水量距平百分率分布图相比较,发现两者分布形势基本一致,特别是两种图上的高值轴线或低值轴线都基本相合,轴线之间的平均距离小于2°纬距者占总数的83.7％。 土壤对不同尺度的气候扰动是一个滤波器,只有低频扰动才能穿透到深层土壤之中,它们之间的关系可表示为:。τ为扰动周期,K_s为土壤热传导率,z_m称为“最大信息深度”。     

说明预报技术和可预报性的一种图表

1.引言在过去25年中,数值天气预报模式以及观测资料和分析系统的改进已使天气尺度环流的业务预报取得了稳定的改进(Shuman,1978)。但是,众所周知,在运动的尺度不能分辨(或不能观测)情况下,由于初始误差的增长,最终将影响所有尺度的运动,使大气运动的可预报性有一个固有界限。即使“完美(Perfect)”的数值模式也是这样(完美模式是指一种不增加预报误差的模式)。     

Concentrations of 137Cs, 90Sr, 108m Ag, 239+240 Pu and atom ratio of 240Pu/239Pu in tanner crabs, Chionoecetes japonicus and Chionoecetes opilio collected around Japan

The anthropogenic radionuclides, ¹³⁷Cs, ⁹⁰Sr, ^108mAg, ^239+240Pu, were measured in two Chionoecetes species, red queen crab (Chionoecetes japonicus) and snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) collected around Japan during 1996–2007. There was no increase in the concentrations of these radionuclides and no large variation of the atom ratio of ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu during this research period. These results indicated that the source of the radionuclides was not the radioactive wastes dumped by the former USSR and Russia and originated from past nuclear weapon tests. The higher atom ratio in the crab species than that from global fallout would be contributed by the Pacific Proving Grounds close-in fallout. The variability of the concentration of radionuclides in the crab species would result from the variability of the composition and quantity in the diet. However, the decrease in the concentration of radionuclides with sampling depth would depend on the concentration in the seawater and diet.     

大气环流模式中陆地水过程参数化的现状

(译者加)近年来,全球干旱等现象的模拟研究受到广泛的重视,而模拟的结果在一定程度上依赖于GCM中陆地水过程参数化的改进。这种状况促进了陆地水过程参数化的研究。本文对之进行了较系统的评述,首先回顾了GCM中现行的参数化方案,然后讨论了植被覆盖在地-气相互作用中的重要性以及这方面的研究状况,最后叙述了陆地水过程参数化中的主要困难。     

PRIMARY STUDY OF SULFATE AND CARBONACEOUS AEROSOLS IN BEIJING

Results of our aerosol study, performed during 1983-1984 in Beijing, demonstrate that ambient carbonaceous aerosols are derived mainly from coal combustion. Different SO, oxidation processes have been observed in summer and winter. The winter sulfate appears to be produced locally and associated with products of incomplete combustion.     

The atmospheric heat budget over the western part of the Tibetan plateau during Monex, 1979

The atmospheric heat source strength over western Tibet has been computed for the period beginning with the last ten days in May, 1979 and extending through August, 1979. Our results show a significantly smaller heat source than that obtained by other authors. The discrepancy is mainly due to adjustments in the dray, coefficient suggested by observations and numerical modeling experiments. We subdivided western Tibet into northern and southern parts. In the north sensible heating, SH, provides the dominant input into the atmospheric heat source, whereas in the southern part latent heat, LP, offers a significant contribution after the start of the rainy season.Detailed heat budget calculations were also carried out over limited regions of southwestern Tibet which hau good station coverage. During periods with area-averaged rainfall ≤1 mm/day an atmospheric heat source maximum was located over southwestern Tibet near the 500 hPa level, while a heat sink dominated the upper troposphere in a layer of subsidence. When rainfall exceeded 4 mm/day, ascending motions and heal sources prevailed throughout the troposphere with maxima near 400 hPa. Time series analyses of the heat sourcs components show that the total atmospheric heat source is strongly modulated by the release of latent heat. Atmospheric radiational cooling reveals a phase shift in its relation with precipitation. During the first part of the observation period a correlation of that cooling exists mainly with the net radiation at the top of the atmosphere, during the last part with the net radiation at the ground.     

Derechos:大范围对流诱发的风暴

Derecho是指一种大范围对流诱发的风暴,它被辨别出来并用流行术语定义。70个derecho个例组成的综合数据库由1980—1983年四年间5—8月暖季资料构成。资料分析表明暖季derecho比较典型地来源于某个中尺度对流系统(MCS)。这个中尺度对流系统沿着以高位势不稳定和相对强的中对流层风为特征的环境中的一个低层准静止热边界移动。在美国大陆,这些风暴经常出现在南达科他东部到上俄亥俄河谷地带,而且比较典型的是在下午和晚上出现。雷达和卫星云图的特殊特征与孕育derecho的中尺度系统有关。根据与derecho事件有关的气象参数和天气形势,已经研究出一个判断树帮助气象业务人员预测derecho的发展。     

Some experiments with multivariate objective analysis scheme of heights and winds using optimum interpolation

A two-dimensional, multitvariate objective analysis scheme for simultaneous analysis of geopotential height and wind fields has been developed over Indian and adjoining region for use in numerical weather prediction. The height-height correlations calculated using daily data of four July months (1976-1979), are used to derive the other autocorrelations and cross-correlations assuming geostropic relationship. A Gaussian function is used to model the autocorrelation function. Since the scheme is multivariate the regression coefficients (weights) are matrix.Near the equator, the geostrophic approximation relating mass and wind is decoupled in a way similar to Bergman (1979). The objective analyses were made over Indian and adjoining region for 850, 700, 500, 300 and 200 hPa levels for the period from 4 July to 8 July 1979, 12 GMT. The analyses obtained using multivariate optimum in-terpolation scheme depict the synoptic situations satisfactorily. The analyses were also compared with the FGGE ana-lyses (from ECMWF) and also with the station observations by computing the root mean square (RMS) errors and the RMS errors are comparable with those obtained in other similar studies.     

Relationship between 500 hPa ridge axis positions over the indian and the west Pacific regions and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

500 hPa ridge positions over the Indian and the West Pacific regions during April are related with the summer monsoon rainfall over India. The ridge position over the Indian region shows better relation with monsoon rainfall than that shown by the ridge over the Pacific region. The multiple correlation of these ridge positions with monsoon rainfall exceeds 0.7. These predictive relationships are better than those shown by other parameters, viz. (1) Northern Hemispheric surface temperature; (2) East-Pacific sea surface tempera-ture; (3) El-Nino events and (4) Tahiti-Darwin pressure difference, and index of southern oscillation, over the 30-year samples analysed.