Sensitivity analysis of EUROSEM using Monte Carlo simulation I: hydrological,soil and vegetation parameters

Knowledge about model uncertainty is essential for erosion modelling and provides important information when it comes to parameterizing models. In this paper a sensitivity analysis of the European soil erosion model (EUROSEM) is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation, suitable for complex non‐linear models, using time‐dependent driving variables. The analysis revealed some important characteristics of the model. The variability of the static output parameters was generally high, with the hydrologic parameters being the most important ones, especially saturated hydraulic conductivity and net capillary drive followed by the percentage basal area for the hydrological and vegetation parameters and detachability and cohesion for the soil erosion parameters. Overall, sensitivity to vegetation parameters was insignificant. The coefficient of variation for the sedigraph was higher than for the hydrograph, especially from the beginning of the rainstorm and up to the peak, and may explain difficulties encountered when trying to match simulated hydrographs and sedigraphs with observed ones. The findings from this Monte Carlo simulation calls for improved within‐storm modelling of erosion processes in EUROSEM. Information about model uncertainty will be incorporated in a new EUROSEM user interface. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multiseason evaluation of the MM5, COAMPS and WRF over southeast United States

Three models, MM5, COAMPS, and WRF, have been applied for the warm season in 2003 and the cool season in 2003?C2004 to evaluate their performances. All models run over the same domain area covering the north Gulf Mexico and southeastern United States (US) region with the same spatial resolution of 27?km. It was found that the temporal variations of the mean error distribution and strength at 24 and 36?h were rather weak for surface temperature, sea level pressure, and surface wind speed for all models. A warm bias in surface temperature forecasts dominated over land during the warm season, whereas a cool bias existed during the cool season. The MM5 and WRF produced negative biases of sea level pressure during the warm season and positive biases during the cool season while the COAMPS yielded a similar distribution of sea level pressure biases during both seasons. During both seasons, similar surface wind speed biases produced by each model included a high wind speed forecast over most areas by MM5 while the COAMPS and WRF yielded weak surface winds over the western Plains and stronger surface winds over the eastern Plains. Root-mean-squared errors revealed that the forecast of surface temperature, sea level pressure, and surface wind speed were degraded with the increase of forecast time. For rainfall evaluation, it was found that the MM5 underpredicted seasonal precipitation while the COAMPS and WRF overpredicted. The bias scores revealed that the MM5 yielded an underprediction of the coverage of precipitation areas, especially for heavier rainfall events. The MM5 presented the lower threat score at lighter rainfall events compared to the COAMPS and WRF. For moderate and heavier thresholds, all models lacked forecast accuracy. The WRF accuracy in predicting precipitation was heavily dependent upon the performance of the selected cumulus parameterization scheme. Use of the Grell?CDevenyi and Bette?CMiller?CJanjic schemes helps suppress precipitation overprediction.     

Pumped rainfall simulators: the impact of rain pulses on sediment concentration and size

Many pumped rainfall simulators used in soil erosion studies use pulsed rain to control the rainfall intensity. We examined the effect of the rain pulsing on sediment concentration and size using three different pulse cycles with the same rainfall intensity. There was considerable variation in sediment concentration through the pulse cycle: the highest concentration was up to four times that of the lowest concentration. Furthermore, the particle size distribution also varied: the peak median particle size was double the lowest median particle size. The magnitude of differences in sediment concentration and particle size were greater the longer the pulse cycle and these dynamics will vary between rainfall simulators and studies. We suggest the impact of the pulsing on sediment is significant and should be investigated prior to experimentation so that sampling periods are designed to avoid bias introduced by fine temporal scale sediment dynamics. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity analysis of EUROSEM using Monte Carlo simulation II: the effect of rills and rock fragments

A sensitivity analysis of the surface and catchment characteristics in the European soil erosion model (EUROSEM) was carried out with special emphasis on rills and rock fragment cover. The analysis focused on the use of Monte Carlo simulation but was supplemented by a simple sensitivity analysis where input variables were increased and decreased by 10%. The study showed that rock fragments have a significant effect upon the static output parameters of total runoff, peak flow rate, total soil loss and peak sediment discharge, but with a high coefficient of variation. The same applied to the average hydrographs and sedigraphs although the peak of the graphs was associated with a low coefficient of variation. On average, however, the model was able to simulate the effect of rock fragment cover quite well. The sensitivity analysis through the Monte Carlo simulation showed that the model is particularly sensitive to changes in parameters describing rills and the length of the plane when no rock fragments are simulated but that the model also is sensitive to changes in the fraction of non‐erodible material and interrill slope when rock fragments were embedded in the topsoil. For rock fragments resting on the surface, changes in parameter values did not affect model output significantly. The simple sensitivity analysis supported the findings from the Monte Carlo simulation and illustrates the importance when choosing input parameters to describe both rills and rock fragment cover when modelling with EUROSEM. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The active-layer hydrology of a peat plateau with thawing permafrost (Scotty Creek, Canada)

The southern margin of permafrost is experiencing unprecedented rates of thaw, yet the effect of this thaw on northern water resources is poorly understood. The hydrology of the active layer on a thawing peat plateau in the wetland-dominated zone of discontinuous permafrost was studied at Scotty Creek, Northwest Territories (Canada), from 2001 to 2010. Two distinct and seasonally characteristic levels of unfrozen moisture were evident in the 0.7-m active layer. Over-winter moisture migration produced a zone of high ice content near the ground surface. The runoff response of a plateau depends on which of the three distinct zones of hydraulic conductivity the water table is displaced into. The moisture and temperature of the active layer steadily rose with each year, with the largest increases close to the ground surface. Permafrost thaw reduced subsurface runoff by (1) lowering the hydraulic gradient, (2) thickening the active layer and, most importantly, (3) reducing the surface area of the plateau. By 2010, the cumulative permafrost thaw had reduced plateau runoff to 47 % of what it would have been had there been no change in hydraulic gradient, active layer thickness and plateau surface area over the decade.     

Effects of land-surface heterogeneity on numerical simulations of mesoscale atmospheric boundary layer processes

Landscape heterogeneity that causes surface flux variability plays a very important role in triggering mesoscale atmospheric circulations and convective weather processes. In most mesoscale numerical models, however, subgrid-scale heterogeneity is somewhat smoothed or not adequately accounted for, leading to artificial changes in heterogeneity patterns (e.g., patterns of land cover, land use, terrain, and soil types and soil moisture). At the domain-wide scale, the combination of losses in subgrid-scale heterogeneity from many adjacent grids may artificially produce larger-scale, more homogeneous landscapes. Therefore, increased grid spacing in models may result in increased losses in landscape heterogeneity. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in this paper, we design a number of experiments to examine the effects of such artificial changes in heterogeneity patterns on numerical simulations of surface flux exchanges, near-surface meteorological fields, atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, mesoscale circulations, and mesoscale fluxes. Our results indicate that the increased heterogeneity losses in the model lead to substantial, nonlinear changes in temporal evaluations and spatial patterns of PBL dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The decreased heterogeneity favor developments of more organized mesoscale circulations, leading to enhanced mesoscale fluxes and, in turn, the vertical transport of heat and moisture. This effect is more pronounced in the areas with greater surface heterogeneity. Since more homogeneous land-surface characteristics are created in regional models with greater surface grid scales, these artificial mesoscale fluxes may have significant impacts on simulations of larger-scale atmospheric processes.     

Sulfur isotope evidence for penetration of MVT fluids into igneous basement rocks,southeast Missouri,USA

Previous studies of galena and sphalerite from Paleozoic MVT deposits in the Viburnum Trend, southeast Missouri documented large variations in ³⁴S values throughout the ore-forming event. The present study of Cu-Fe-sulfides reveals a similar ³⁴S variation that reflects two end-member sulfur reservoirs whose relative importance varied both temporally and spatially. More ³⁴S-enriched sulfides (³⁴S approaching 25) indicate introduction of sulfur from basinal sedimentary sources, whereas more ³²S-enriched sulfides (³⁴S < 5) may reflect fluids moving through underlying granitic basement. Two areas containing Precambrian, igneous-hosted FeCu mineralization in southeast Missouri (West and Central Domes of Boss-Bixby) were investigated to elucidate their relationship to Cu-rich MVT orebodies hosted nearby within the overlying Cambrian Bonneterre Dolomite. Mineralization at Boss-Bixby is composed of an early phase of iron oxide deposition followed by Cu-Fe-sulfides. The Central Dome is faulted and its mineralization is more fracture-controlled than the typically podiform ores of the West Dome. The ³⁴S values of West Dome sulfides are 0.9 to 6.5 and pyrite-chalcopyrite indicate a temperature of 525° ± 50 °C. These data indicate an igneous source of sulfur during Precambrian ore deposition. In contrast, ³⁴S values of Central Dome sulfides are 9.4 to 20.0 and pyrite-chalcopyrite indicate temperatures of 275° ± 50 °C. Similar ³⁴S values are obtained for chalcopyrite from the overlying MVT deposits. We speculate that deeply circulating, basin-derived MVT fluids mobilized sulfur and copper from the underlying igneous basement and redeposited them in overlying Curich MVT orebodies, as well as overprinting earlier Precambrian sulfides of the Central Dome with a later, Paleozoic MVT sulfur isotope signature. Many models for MVT fluid circulation in the Midcontinent region of North America assume that igneous basement rocks are an impermeable boundary, but in southeast Missouri, evidence exists for structurally controlled MVT fluid movement > 600 m vertically through underlying Precambrian igneous rocks. Such basement involvement has been suggested for other carbonate-hosted base-metal districts (e.g. Irish base metal deposits) and should be considered an integral part of the ore-forming process in southeast Missouri.     

Measuring saturated hydraulic conductivity and anisotropy of peat by a modified split-container method

Long-term changes in the physical and hydraulic properties of peat result from the decomposition and consolidation processes. The saturated hydraulic conductivity (K _s) of peat is depth-dependent and could increase or decrease with depth; therefore, K _s determination on a large number of samples is required to more accurately assess field variability. The cube method is a popular laboratory procedure to determine K _s because it allows use of smaller sample dimensions, while minimizing edge effects. This article describes the design and use of an alternate split container to enclose undisturbed peat cubes during measurement of K _s and the application of this method to a field site in Northwest Territories, Canada. The method allows for simpler and more controlled K _s measurements while also permitting anisotropy measurements. Matched tests on identical samples (K _s range 21–314 m/d), using the split-container and wax methods, showed a good agreement for intermediate K _s values; however, significant deviations occurred for low and high K _s values. Hydraulic-conductivity measurements taken on field samples showed a decrease with depth and exhibited anisotropic hydraulic conductivity as expected based on previous studies.