Ensemble rainfall forecasting with numerical weather prediction and radar‐based nowcasting models

The overall objective of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of the precipitation in the Singapore region by means of both rainfall forecasting and nowcasting. Numerical Weather Predication (NWP) and radar‐based rainfall nowcasting are two important sources for quantitative precipitation forecast. In this paper, an attempt to combine rainfall prediction from a high‐resolution mesoscale weather model and a radar‐based rainfall model was performed. Two rainfall forecasting methods were selected and examined: (i) the weather research and forecasting model (WRF); and (ii) a translation model (TM). The WRF model, at a high spatial resolution, was run over the domain of interest using the Global Forecast System data as initializing fields. Some heavy rainfall events were selected from data record and used to test the forecast capability of WRF and TM. Results obtained from TM and WRF were then combined together to form an ensemble rainfall forecasting model, by assigning weights of 0.7 and 0.3 weights to TM and WRF, respectively. This paper presented results from WRF and TM, and the resulting ensemble rainfall forecasting; comparisons with station data were conducted as well. It was shown that results from WRF are very useful as advisory of anticipated heavy rainfall events, whereas those from TM, which used information of rain cells already appearing on the radar screen, were more accurate for rainfall nowcasting as expected. The ensemble rainfall forecasting compares reasonably well with the station observation data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of the Roll Hydrodynamic Moment Model of a Ship by Using the System Identification Method and the Free Running Model Test

When a fast container ship or a naval vessel turns, accompanying roll motions occur. This roll effect must be considered in the horizontal equations of the motion of the ship to predict the maneuverability of the ship properly. In this paper, a new method for determining a model structure of the hydrodynamic roll moment acting on a ship and for estimating the hydrodynamic coefficients is proposed. The method utilizes a system identification technique with the data from sea trial tests or from free running model (FRM) tests. To obtain motion data that is applied to the proposed algorithm, an FRM of a large container ship was developed. Using this model ship, standard maneuvering tests were carried out on a small body of water out of doors. A hydrodynamic roll moment model was constructed utilizing the data from turning circle tests and a 20-20 zig-zag test. This was then confirmed through a 10-10 zig-zag test. It was concluded that a model structure of the hydrodynamic roll moment model could be established without difficulty through a system identification method and FRM tests.     

Model-based remote sensing algorithms for particulate organic carbon (POC) in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

Hydrographic data, including particulate organic carbon (POC) from the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (NEGOM) study, were combined with remotely-sensed SeaWiFS data to estimate POC concentration using principal component analysis (PCA). The spectral radiance was extracted at each NEGOM station, digitized, and averaged. The mean value and spurious trends were removed from each spectrum. De-trended data included six wavelengths at 58 stations. The correlation between the weighting factors of the first six eigenvectors and POC concentration were applied using multiple linear regression. PCA algorithms based on the first three, four, and five modes accounted for 90, 95, and 98% of total variance and yielded significant correlations with POC with R ² = 0.89, 0.92, and 0.93. These full waveband approaches provided robust estimates of POC in various water types. Three different analyses (root mean square error, mean ratio and standard deviation) showed similar error estimates, and suggest that spectral variations in the modes defined by just the first four characteristic vectors are closely correlated with POC concentration, resulting in only negligible loss of spectral information from additional modes. The use of POC algorithms greatly increases the spatial and temporal resolution for interpreting POC cycling and can be extrapolated throughout and perhaps beyond the area of shipboard sampling.     

Torrential rainfall-triggered shallow landslide characteristics and susceptibility assessment using ensemble data-driven models in the Dongjiang Reservoir Watershed,China

Natural Hazards - This study investigated the characteristics of rainfall-triggered landslides during the Typhoon Bilis in the Dongjiang Reservoir Watershed, China. The comparative shallow...     

Responses of chemically active and naturally fractured shale under time‐dependent mechanical loading and ionic solution exposure

In this paper, the analytical dual‐porosity dual‐permeability poromechanics solution for saturated cylinders is extended to account for electrokinetic effects and material transverse isotropy, which simulate the responses of chemically active naturally fractured shale under time‐dependent mechanical loading and ionic solution exposure. The solution addresses the stresses, fracture pore pressure, matrix pore pressure, fluid fluxes, ion concentration evolution, and displacements due to the applied stress, pore pressure, and solute concentration difference between the sample and the circulation fluid. The presented solution will not only help validate numerical simulations but also assist in calibrating and interpreting laboratory results on dual‐porosity dual‐permeability shale. It is recommended that the analytical solutions of radial and axial displacements be used to match the corresponding laboratory‐recorded data to determine shale dual permeability and chemo‐electrical parameters including membrane coefficient, ions diffusion coefficients, and electro‐osmotic permeability.     

Are satellite products good proxies for gauge precipitation over Singapore?

The uncertainties in two high-resolution satellite precipitation products (TRMM 3B42 v7.0 and GSMaP v5.222) were investigated by comparing them against rain gauge observations over Singapore on sub-daily scales. The satellite-borne precipitation products are assessed in terms of seasonal, monthly and daily variations, the diurnal cycle, and extreme precipitation over a 10-year period (2000–2010). Results indicate that the uncertainties in extreme precipitation is higher in GSMaP than in TRMM, possibly due to the issues such as satellite merging algorithm, the finer spatio-temporal scale of high intensity precipitation, and the swath time of satellite. Such discrepancies between satellite-borne and gauge-based precipitations at sub-daily scale can possibly lead to distorting analysis of precipitation characteristics and/or application model results. Overall, both satellite products are unable to capture the observed extremes and provide a good agreement with observations only at coarse time scales. Also, the satellite products agree well on the late afternoon maximum and heavier rainfall of gauge-based data in winter season when the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is located over Singapore. However, they do not reproduce the gauge-observed diurnal cycle in summer. The disagreement in summer could be attributed to the dominant satellite overpass time (about 14:00 SGT) later than the diurnal peak time (about 09:00 SGT) of gauge precipitation. From the analyses of extreme precipitation indices, it is inferred that both satellite datasets tend to overestimate the light rain and frequency but underestimate high intensity precipitation and the length of dry spells. This study on quantification of their uncertainty is useful in many aspects especially that these satellite products stand scrutiny over places where there are no good ground data to be compared against. This has serious implications on climate studies as in model evaluations and in particular, climate model simulated future projections, when information on precipitation extremes need to be reliable as they are highly crucial for adaptation and mitigation.     

The influence of tectonic subsidence on volcaniclastic sedimentation: The Cretaceous upper Daeri Member,Wido Island,Korea

The Daeri Member, a Cretaceous volcanic–sedimentary succession, can be divided into lower, middle, and upper parts based on vertical changes in its lithologic characters. The lower Daeri Member is composed of siliciclastic deposits formed in a semi‐arid floodplain environment, which is overlain by the middle Daeri Member consisting mainly of andesite lava flow. After the emplacement of the andesite, activities of intrabasinal normal faults created accommodation on hanging wall blocks together with the development of intrabasinal topographic relief. The upper Daeri Member occurs only in hanging wall blocks and is composed of rhyolitic volcaniclastic sediments formed during an explosive volcanic eruption. Following the eruption, owing to semi‐arid climatic conditions and the destruction of vegetation, the eruptive materials were easily remobilized and deposited by episodic sediment gravity flows, resulting in deposition of the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits with sheet‐like geometry. Away from the intrabasinal normal faults, the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits show a decrease in grain size together with changes in inferred depositional processes from debris flows to hyperconcentrated flows and supercritical sheetfloods. This suggests that the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits were stacked on alluvial fan environments induced by intrabasinal topographic relief associated with normal fault activities. In addition, episodic movement of the faults gave rise to periodic fluctuation of the accommodation and an increase in gradient of the alluvial fan surface, resulting in the development of coarsening‐upward trends in the resedimented volcaniclastic deposits. The development of the alluvial fan and the coarsening‐upward trends indicate that dynamic tectonic subsidence and concomitant changes in the intrabasinal physiographic relief influenced the depositional processes and sizes of the transported volcaniclastic sediments of the upper Daeri Member. Thus, it is necessary to carefully observe tectonic signatures in volcaniclastic successions, particularly the syneruptive lithofacies, in order to reconstruct the tectonic and volcanic histories of receiving basins.     

Assessment of earthquake hazard for the northwestern Vietnam from geological and geophysical data using an original program package

The highest seismic activity in Vietnam is observed in the northwest of the country, hence the practical significance of more accurate assessment of the earthquake hazard for the area. The worldwide experience of seismicity, in particular, the recent Tohoku mega-earthquake (March 11, 2011, M _w = 9.0, Japan) shows that instrumental and historical data alone are insufficient to reliably estimate earthquake hazard. This is all the more relevant in relation to Vietnam where the period of instrumental observation is short and historical evidence is nearly lacking. In this connection we made an attempt to construct maps of earthquake hazard based on known seismicity data using the available geological and geophysical data and the method of G.I. Reisner and his associates for classification of areas by seismic potential. Since the question of what geological and geophysical parameters are to be used and with what weights remains unresolved, we developed a program package to estimate Mmax based on different options in the use of geological and geophysical data. In this paper we discuss the first results and the promise held by this program package.