Evaluation and comparison of LogitBoost Ensemble,Fisher’s Linear Discriminant Analysis,logistic regression and support vector machines methods for landslide susceptibility mapping

The purpose of this study was to investigate and compare the capabilities of four machine learning methods namely LogitBoost Ensemble (LBE), Fisher’s Linear Discriminate Analysis (FLDA), Logistic Regression (LR) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) to select the best method for landslide susceptibility mapping. A part of landslide prone area of Tehri Garhwal district of Uttarakhand state, India, was selected as a case study. Validation of models was carried out using statistical analysis, the chi square test and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Result analysis shows that the LBE has the highest prediction ability (AUC = 0.972) for landslide susceptibility mapping, followed by the SVM (0.945), the LR (0.873) and the FLDA (0.870), respectively. Therefore, the LBE is the best and a promising method in comparison to other three models for landslide susceptibility mapping.     

Application of a Conceptual Ecological Model to Predict the Effects of Sand Mining around Chilsan Island Group in the West Coast of Korea

Chilsan Island Group, located on the west coast of South Korea, has been recognized as a critical breeding and nursery ground for endangered seabirds because food is abundant and human activity is low. Chilsan Island Group has been under protection as a Natural Monument (Article no. 389) since 1997, but attempts were made in 2004 to exploit the coastal sands around the islands. A conceptual ecological model (CEM) was employed with energy flow diagram (EFD) to predict the effects of sand mining on the islands’ ecosystem. The results showed that sand mining activities caused long-term damage to benthic ecosystems and threatened seabird communities by reducing fish populations throughout the food web. The changes in energy flow in the ecosystem due to sand mining operations predict that reduction in secondary production of benthic animal communities might reduce energy transfer to humans and seabirds by 30%. Different ranges of uncertainty provided by the Monte Carlo simulation lead to the conclusion that sand mining could bring about undesirable consequences. One concern is that such negative consequences would have a much more severe impact on seabirds than humans because seabirds cannot compete effectively against humans for the limited food sources. In this study, the complex interrelationships between ecosystem members were simplified and a CEM was established to clearly identify which elements would be affected. The CEM with EFD was found to be helpful in promoting communication between stakeholders, and it is expected to be widely used as a decisionmaking tool by public officials.     

Temporal variation in the vertical distribution of microphytobenthos in intertidal flats of the Nakdong River estuary,Korea

The vertical distribution of microphytobenthos (MPB) was investigated in intertidal flats of the Nakdong River estuary over different temporal periods. The MPB biomass were measured as chlorophyll a concentration in the sediment, and monitored at two different depth scales. From August 2006 to August 2007, monthly sampling was carried out at four sites to a depth of 10 cm. The vertical distribution exhibited an exponential decline with depth and the slope was closely related to sediment composition and MPB biomass in the surface sediment. The two slightly muddy sand (5–25% mud, <63 μm) sites presented similar trends of seasonal variation to a sediment depth of 10 cm, and no statistical difference was observed in their initial values and the slope of the exponential curves applied to each data set. The site with higher mud content also had higher surface biomass, and the fitted exponential curve had a larger slope than sites with more sand content. The seasonal variations of phaeo-pigments compared to chlorophyll a revealed higher grazing stress on the MPB in summer at the three slightly muddy sand sites, and low grazing stress all year around at the sand (<5% mud) site. In January, April and October 2007, and January 2008, diurnal sampling was conducted at hourly intervals at one slightly muddy sand site. The investigation in January 2007 which was conducted at 1 cm intervals to a depth of 10 cm sediment showed the migration mainly existed in the upper 1 cm. The other diurnal sampling was undertaken to a 1 cm depth at 0.5 mm intervals. An evident migratory rhythm was present, with migration up to the surface during daytime emersion and down into deeper sediment during night and high tide submersion. Migrating cells could reach sediments as deep as 6 or even 10 mm. When the visible thick biofilms formed, the migratory rhythm changed by keeping higher biomass at the surface even at night and during high tide submersion. Generally, the MPB surface biomass was an important factor in structuring the MPB vertical distribution. The vertical distribution to depths of 10 cm was closely related to the sediment composition over the long term, while the MPB migration influenced the vertical distribution over the short term in the top 1 cm of the sediment.     

Present-day stress and pore pressure fields in the Cuu Long and Nam Con Son Basins, offshore Vietnam

Knowledge of the in situ, or contemporary stress field is vital for planning optimum orientations of deviated and horizontal wells, reservoir characterization and a better understanding of geodynamic processes and their effects on basin evolution.This study provides the first documented analysis of in situ stress and pore pressure fields in the sedimentary formations of the Cuu Long and Nam Con Son Basins, offshore Vietnam, based on data from petroleum exploration and production wells.In the Cuu Long Basin, the maximum horizontal stress is mainly oriented in NNW–SSE to N–S in the northern part and central high. In the Nam Con Son Basin, the maximum horizontal stress is mainly oriented in NE–SW in the northern part and to N–S in the central part of the basin.The magnitude of the vertical stress has a gradient of approximately 22.2 MPa/km at 3500 m depth. Minimum horizontal stress magnitude is approximately 61% of the vertical stress magnitude in normally pressured sequences.The effect of pore pressure change on horizontal stress magnitudes was estimated from pore pressure and fracture tests data in depleted zone caused by fluid production, and an average pore pressure–stress coupling ratio (ΔS_h/ΔP_p) obtained was 0.66. The minimum horizontal stress magnitude approaches the vertical stress magnitude in overpressured zones of the Nam Con Son Basin, suggesting that an isotropic or strike-slip faulting stress regime may exist in the deeper overpressured sequences.     

A comparison of analytic and numerical results for a two-dimensional control model in electromagnetic induction – I. B-polarization calculations

Summary. A conducting slab of finite thickness divided into three segments of different conductivities and overlying a perfect conductor is proposed as a suitable two-dimensional 'control' model for testing the accuracy of the various numerical modelling programs that are available for calculating the fields induced in the Earth by an external, time-varying magnetic source. An analytic solution is obtained for this control model for the case of the magnetic field everywhere parallel to the conductivity boundaries ( B -polarization). Values of the field given by this solution for a particular set of model parameters are calculated at selected points on the surface and on a horizontal plane inside the conductor, and are tabulated to three figure accuracy for reference. They are used to check the accuracy of the results given by the finite difference program of Brewitt-Taylor & Weaver and the finite element program of Kisak & Silvester for the same model. Improved formulae for calculating the derived electric field components in B -polarization are first developed for incorporation in the finite difference program, and these give surface electric fields within 1 per cent of the analytic values, while all three field components inside the conductor are calculated to better than 96 per cent accuracy by the finite difference program. The results given by the finite element program are not quite so satisfactory. Errors somewhat greater than 10 per cent are present and although the program requires much less disk space it takes rather more CPU time to complete the calculations.     

Potential of Argo Drifters for Estimating Biological Production within the Water Column

Argo drifters provide information of the vertical structure in the water column and have a potential for the improvement of understanding phytoplankton primary production and biogeochemical cycles in combination with ocean color satellite data, which can obtain the horizontal distribution of phytoplankton biomass in the surface layer. Our examples show that using Argo drifters with satellite-measured horizontal distribution of phytoplankton biomass at the sea surface allow an improved understanding of the development of the spring bloom. The other possible uses of Argo drifter are discussed.     

Recent climatic trends and linkages to river discharge in Central Vietnam

In this study, change in rainfall, temperature and river discharge are analysed over the last three decades in Central Vietnam. Trends and rainfall indices are evaluated using non‐parametric tests at different temporal levels. To overcome the sparse locally available network, the high resolution APHRODITE gridded dataset is used in addition to the existing rain gauges. Finally, existing linkages between discharge changes and trends in rainfall and temperature are explored. Results are indicative of an intensification of rainfall (+15%/decade), with more extreme and longer events. A significant increase in winter rainfall and a decrease in consecutive dry days provides strong evidence for a lengthening wet season in Central Vietnam. In addition, trends based on APHRODITE suggest a strong orographic signal in winter and annual trends. These results underline the local variability in the impacts of climatic change at the global scale. Consequently, it is important that change detection investigations are conducted at the local scale. A very weak signal is detected in the trend of minimum temperature (+0.2°C/decade). River discharge trends show an increase in mean discharge (31 to 35%/decade) over the last decades. Between 54 and 74% of this increase is explained by the increase in precipitation. The maximum discharge also responds significantly to precipitation changes leading to a lengthened wet season and an increase in extreme rainfall events. Such trends can be linked with a likely increase in floods in Central Vietnam, which is important for future adaptation planning and management and flood preparedness in the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced precipitation over the Korean River basins according to three evolution patterns of the Central-Pacific El Niño

This study carried out a comparative analysis of the changes in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis, TC track, and TC intensity focusing on TCs that affected the Korean peninsula (KP) according to three evolutionary patterns (prolonged, abrupt and symmetric-decay) of the abnormal sea surface temperature in the Central-Pacific (CP) region. As a result of the analysis, the activity pattern of TCs was found to vary depending on the evolution patterns of the CP El Niño, and such changes appeared to result in clear variations in the regional rainfall in Korea. In the prolonged-decaying and symmetric-decaying years, the KP received considerable TC rainfall. On the other hand, in abrupt-decaying years, it was subtly affected by the TC rainfall. Although rather limited conditions and relatively short observation data were used to analyze the effects of the evolution pattern of the CP El Niño on TCs, the results can be used to quantitatively identify the spatial features of TCs affecting the KP. These results are expected to be helpful in managing the disaster risks in vulnerable areas, including plans to secure stable water resources in the basin, and in establishing effective and active measures to cope with natural disasters by extreme events over the KP.     

Three‐dimensional modelling of controlled‐source electromagnetic surveys using an edge finite‐element method with a direct solver

A fully three‐dimensional finite‐element algorithm has been developed for simulating controlled‐source electromagnetic surveys. To exploit the advantages of geometric flexibility, frequency‐domain Maxwell's equations of the secondary electric field were discretised using edge‐based finite elements while the primary field was calculated analytically for a horizontally layered‐earth model. The resulting system of equations for the secondary field was solved using a parallel version of direct solvers. The accuracy of the algorithm was successfully verified by comparisons with integral‐equations and iterative solutions, and the applicability to models containing large conductivity contrasts was verified against published data. The advantages of geometry‐conforming meshes have been demonstrated by comparing different mesh systems to simulate an inclined sheet model. A comparison of the performance between direct and iterative solvers demonstrated the superior efficiency of direct solvers, particularly for multisource problems.     

Monitoring of suspended sediment variation using Landsat and MODIS in the Saemangeum coastal area of Korea

Suspended sediment concentration (SS) is an important indicator of marine environmental changes due to natural causes such as tides, tidal currents, and river discharges, as well as human activities such as construction in coastal regions. In the Saemangeum area on the west coast of Korea, construction of a huge tidal dyke for land reclamation has strongly influenced the coastal environment. This study used remotely sensed data to analyze the SS changes in coastal waters caused by the dyke construction. Landsat and MODIS satellite images were used for the spatial analysis of finer patterns and for the detailed temporal analysis, respectively. Forty Landsat scenes and 105 monthly composite MODIS images observed during 1985-2010 were employed, and four field campaigns (from 2005 to 2006) were performed to verify the image-derived SS. The results of the satellite data analyses showed that the seawater was clear before the dyke construction, with SS values lower than 20 g/m(3). These values increased continuously as the dyke construction progressed. The maximum SS values appeared just before completion of the fourth dyke. Values decreased to below 5 g/m(3) after dyke construction. These changes indicated tidal current modification. Some eddies and plumes were observed in the images generated from Landsat data. Landsat and MODIS can reveal that coastal water turbidity was greatly reduced after completion of the construction.