以模块化的管理方式促进防震减灾宣传工作

防震减灾宣传是基层地震工作的重要内容之一,本文就如何有效提高防震减灾宣传工作做了初步分析,主要包括层次性和多角度性、针对性和亲和力、宣传工作细化并实施模块化管理几方面,通过事实举例和理性分析,说明模块化管理的必要性和创新性。     

Contribution to the Global Warming Mitigation of Marshlands Conversion to Croplands in the Sanjiang Plain,Northeast China

Based on the estimation of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and carbon sequestration of the total conversion of marshlands (TMC), marshlands conversion to paddy fields (MCPFs) and marshlands conversion to uplands (MCULs), this study revealed the contribution to the global warming mitigation (CGWM) of paddy fields versus uplands converted from marshlands in the Sanjiang Plain (excluding the Muling‐Xingkai Plain on south of Wanda Mountain), Heilongjiang Province, northeast China. The results showed that the total area of MCPFs and MCULs was 504.23 × 10³ ha between 1982 and 2005. The CGWM per unit area was 45.53 t CO₂eq/ha for MCPFs and that was 23.95 t CO₂eq/ha for MCULs, with an obvious 47.40% reduction. The MCPFs and MCULs ecosystems acted as the carbon sink all of the year. As far as CGWM per unit area is concerned, MCPFs mitigated the greenhouse effect which was greater than MCULs. And it was effective that the implementation of the uplands transformed into paddy fields in Northeast China with regard to marshlands protection and croplands (including paddy fields and uplands) reclamation.     

绩溪县洪坑板岩砚石矿的岩性、成分、物理化学性能特征分析

赋存于中元古代大谷运组上段地层中的绩溪县洪坑板岩类砚石,通过与歙砚石～歙县龙头石及江西龙尾石、九江石、大畈石、玉山石的物理化学参数测试资料对比分析,歙砚石其原岩均为泥砂质构造沉积岩,但岩性、成分、物理化学性能特征存在一定差异,与歙砚石—龙尾石属于不同成因机制的砚石。     

Late Quaternary (30.7–9.0 cal ka BP) vegetation history in Central Asia inferred from pollen records of Lake Balikun, northwest China

Surface and fossil pollen samples were collected to reconstruct the vegetation and environment since 30.7 cal ka BP in the Lake Balikun Basin, northwest China. This record demonstrates that the region was occupied by four vegetation communities during the interval 30.7–9.0 cal ka BP, including desert steppe (30.7–25.1 cal ka BP), Amaranthaceae-Asteraceae desert (25.1–17.7 cal ka BP), Amaranthaceae-Artemisia-Asteraceae desert (17.7–12.8 cal ka BP) and Amaranthaceae desert (12.8–9.0 cal ka BP), corresponding to relatively humid, the coldest and driest, cold and dry, and colder and drier conditions, respectively. The reconstructions of vegetation and environmental changes around Lake Balikun do not support the interpretation of an extremely humid LGM in Central Asia, challenging the cold-moist (glacial), warm-dry (interglacial) pattern of late Quaternary environmental change in Central Asia. The Last Glacial Maximum was cold and dry, and similarly harsh conditions continued into the early Holocene.     

Using Contextualized Geographically Weighted Regression to Model the Spatial Heterogeneity of Land Prices in Beijing,China

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a method of spatial statistical analysis allowing the modeled relationship between a response variable and a set of covariates to vary geographically across a study region. Its use of geographical weighting arises from the expectation that observations close together by distance are likely to share similar characteristics. In practice, however, two points can be geographically close but socially distant because the contexts (or neighborhoods) within which they are situated are not alike. Drawing on a previous study of geographically and temporally weighted regression, in this article we develop what we describe as contextualized Geographically Weighted Regression (CGWR), applying it to the field of hedonic house price modeling to examine spatial heterogeneity in the land parcel prices of Beijing, China. Contextual variables are incorporated into the analysis by adjusting the geographical weights matrix to measure proximity not only by distance but also with respect to an attribute space defined by measures of each observation's neighborhood. Comparing CGWR with GWR suggests that adding the contextual information improves the model fit.     

基于区域自动站数据的兰州地区降水精细化特征

基于2012—2019年兰州地区146个区域自动气象站小时降水数据,从不同时间尺度分析兰州地区近8 a降水精细化特征。结论如下:(1)2012—2019年,兰州地区年均降水量总体呈"北少南多、外多内少"的空间分布特征;年降水量具有明显的年际变化,2018年降水异常偏多46%,而2015、2017年降水异常偏少,尤其2015年偏少30%。(2)兰州地区降水主要集中在7—8月,受环流形势影响,7—8月南部降水明显多于北部,其余月份南北降水差异不明显。(3)兰州地区降水量和降水范围分别表现为"朝少夕多"、"夜大日小"的日变化特征;受海拔高度影响,城区降水量总体比山区小,且因热岛效应,城区降水主要集中在午后至傍晚前后,多为对流性降水,而山区降水日分布较为均匀,整体日波动较小。(4)安宁区短时强降水发生频次最高,但短时强降水频发的站点出现在皋兰县六合站和永登县徐家磨村站,永登县是兰州地区短时强降水预报需重点关注的地区。     

基于区域自动站数据的兰州地区降水精细化特征

基于2012—2019年兰州地区146个区域自动气象站小时降水数据,从不同时间尺度分析兰州地区近8 a降水精细化特征。结论如下:(1)2012—2019年,兰州地区年均降水量总体呈"北少南多、外多内少"的空间分布特征;年降水量具有明显的年际变化,2018年降水异常偏多46%,而2015、2017年降水异常偏少,尤其2015年偏少30%。(2)兰州地区降水主要集中在7—8月,受环流形势影响,7—8月南部降水明显多于北部,其余月份南北降水差异不明显。(3)兰州地区降水量和降水范围分别表现为"朝少夕多"、"夜大日小"的日变化特征;受海拔高度影响,城区降水量总体比山区小,且因热岛效应,城区降水主要集中在午后至傍晚前后,多为对流性降水,而山区降水日分布较为均匀,整体日波动较小。(4)安宁区短时强降水发生频次最高,但短时强降水频发的站点出现在皋兰县六合站和永登县徐家磨村站,永登县是兰州地区短时强降水预报需重点关注的地区。     

Observational Subseasonal Variability of the PM2.5 Concentration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area during the January 2021 Sudden Stratospheric Warming

It is still not well understood if subseasonal variability of the local PM_2.5 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region is affected by the stratospheric state. Using PM_2.5 observations and the ERA5 reanalysis, the evolution of the air quality in BTH during the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is explored. The subseasonal variability of the PM_2.5 concentration after the SSW onset is evidently enhanced. Stratospheric circumpolar easterly anomalies lasted for 53 days during the January–February 2021 SSW with two evident stratospheric pulses arriving at the ground. During the tropospheric wave weakening period and the intermittent period of dormant stratospheric pulses, the East Asian winter monsoon weakened, anomalous temperature inversion developed in the lower troposphere, anomalous surface southerlies prevailed, atmospheric moisture increased, and the boundary layer top height lowered, all of which favor the accumulation of pollutant particulates, leading to two periods of pollution processes in the BTH region. In the phase of strengthened East Asian winter monsoon around the very beginning of the SSW and another two periods when stratospheric pulses had reached the near surface, opposite-signed circulation patterns and meteorological conditions were observed, which helped to dilute and diffuse air pollutants in the BTH region. As a result, the air quality was excellent during the two periods when the stratospheric pulse had reached the near surface. The increased subseasonal variation of the regional pollutant particulates after the SSW onset highlights the important role of the stratosphere in the regional environment and provides implications for the environmental prediction.     

Interannual variability of the sea surface salinity and its related freshwater flux in the tropical Pacific: A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6

This paper assesses the interannual variabilities of simulated sea surface salinity (SSS) and freshwater flux (FWF) in the tropical Pacific from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The authors focus on comparing the simulated SSS and FWF responses to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from two generations of models developed by the same group. The results show that CMIP5 and CMIP6 models can perform well in simulating the spatial distributions of the SSS and FWF responses associated with ENSO, as well as their relationship. It is found that most CMIP6 models have improved in simulating the geographical distribution of the SSS and FWF interannual variability in the tropical Pacific compared to CMIP5 models. In particular, CMIP6 models have corrected the underestimation of the spatial relationship of the FWF and SSS variability with ENSO in the central-western Pacific. In addition, CMIP6 models outperform CMIP5 models in simulating the FWF interannual variability (spatial distribution and intensity) in the tropical Pacific. However, as a whole, CMIP6 models do not show improved skill scores for SSS interannual variability, which is due to their overestimation of the intensity in some models. Large uncertainties exist in simulating the interannual variability of SSS among CMIP5 and CMIP6 models and some improvements with respect to physical processes are needed.摘要通过比较CMIP5和CMIP6来自同一个单位两代模式模拟, 表明CMIP5和CMIP6均能较好地模拟出热带太平洋的海表盐度 (SSS) 和淡水通量 (FWF) 对ENSO响应的分布及其响应间的关系. 与CMIP5模式相比, 大部份CMIP6模式模拟的SSS和FWF年际变化分布均呈现改进, 特别是纠正了较低的中西太平洋SSS和FWF变化的空间关系. 但是, 整体上, CMIP6模式模拟的SSS年际变化技巧没有提高, 与SSS年际变率的强度被高估有关. CMIP5和CMIP6模式模拟SSS的年际变化还存在较大的不确定性, 在物理方面需要改进.     

Reversed impacts of the Arctic oscillation on the precipitation over the South China Sea and its surrounding areas in October and November

Climate Dynamics - The reversed impacts of the Arctic oscillation (AO) on precipitation over the South China Sea and its surrounding areas (SCSA) in October and November during 1979–2014 are...