天气概率预报的科学性及其应用前景

介绍了天气概率预报的科学性、对象、方法及应用前景，指出天然概率预报是我国天气预报技术的发展，它是适应社会需求，提高天气预报效益的重要手段。     

白云鄂博矿区磷灰石氧同位素研究

通过新建立的BiPO4转化法，笔者分析了白云鄂博矿区部分磷灰石的氧同位素组成，其变化范围为6．3‰～9．4‰，并通过与各种产状磷灰石及不同时代磷酸盐沉积的氧同位素对比、磷灰石形成温度的计算，以及磷灰石Sr－Pb同位素数据的分析，推断矿区磷灰石的形成可能与热水沉积作用有关。     

加强地勘行业管理 服务国民经济建设

近年来湖南省在地勘行业管理上开展了法规法制建设、规划计划编制、勘查秩序维护、勘查成果管理、勘查外部环境改善等方面的工作,“八五”后3年继续开展法制建设、勘查登记管理、勘查成果管理、建立行业统计系统、做好服务协调工作,推广改革经验等。     

Stratospheric in situ measurements of H2SO4 and HSO3 vapors during a volcanically active period

In situ measurements of stratospheric H₂SO₄ and HSO₃vapors using passive chemical ionization mass spectrometry were made in October 1982 after the eruption of volcano El Chichon. Data were obtained between about 20 and 41 km showing [H₂SO₄ + HSO₃] sum concentrations between about 10⁴ and 2 × 10⁵ cm^?3 below 29 km and a steep rise above this altitude. Maximum [H₂SO₄ + HSO₃] values of about 3 × 10⁶ cm^?3 are reached above 35 km.Partial [HSO₃] concentrations increase above 34 km reaching about $\text{4 × 10}{}^5\text{cm}{}^{\mathrm{?3}}$ around 40 km. From the measurements it is concluded that H₂SO₄ and probably HSO₃photolysis have an important influence above 34 km leading to the observed increase of [HSO₃] and a depletion of H₂SO₄vapor.It also seems that the data support the view of heterogeneous HSO₃ removal. If correct, this would imply that stratospheric aerosols are formed primarily from HSO₃ rather than H₂SO₄vapor.     

Distribution of <Superscript>226</Superscript>Ra in the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Sea and its hydrologic implications

Radium-226 (²²⁶Ra) activities were measured in the surface water samples collected from the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Sea during the First Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition. The results showed that ²²⁶Ra concentrations in the surface water ranged from 0.28 to 1.56 Bq/m³ with an average of 0.76 Bq/m³ in the Arctic Ocean, and from 0.25 to 1.26 Bq/m³ with an average of 0.71 Bq/m³ in the Bering Sea. The values were obviously lower than those from open oceans in middle and low latitudes, indicating that the study area may be partly influenced by sea ice meltwater. In the Bering Sea, ²²⁶Ra in the surface water decreased northward, probably as a result of the exchange between the ²²⁶Ra-deficient sea ice meltwater and the ²²⁶Ra-rich Pacific water. In the Arctic Ocean, ²²⁶Ra in the surface water increased northward and eastward. This spatial distribution of ²²⁶Ra reflected the variation of the ²²⁶Ra-enriched river component in the water mass of the Arctic Ocean. The vertical profiles of ²²⁶Ra in the Canadian Basin showed a concentration maximum at 200 m, which could be attributed to the inputs of the Pacific water or/and the bottom shelf water with high ²²⁶Ra concentration. This conclusion was consistent with the results from ²H, ¹⁸O tracers.     

A Flare-Triggered Heating of a Quiescent Filament

Using data obtained with the 20-cm H full-disk telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory and Fexii 195 Å EIT on SOHO, we analyze a sudden disappearance event of a quiescent filament in detail. The filament was located along the common boundary of the active regions NOAA 9672 (S19 E13) and NOAA 9673 (N03 E18). The filament disappeared during a time interval between 17:59 UT and 19:47 UT on 22 October 2001 immediately after the onset of a major flare, which occurred in the active region NOAA 9672. At about 23:23 UT of the same day, the filament began to reappear in H and, after about 15 hours, the filament recovered to its steady state with its size being slightly smaller than that before its disappearance. This filament disappearance event belongs to the thermal type of sudden filament disappearances, which is caused by an input of additional heat. The heating mechanism that leads to sudden thermal disappearances of quiescent filaments is still not well understood. This simple event, due to the explicit cause and effect relationship between the flare and the disappearance of the filament, shows us that the flare triggered some kind of heating mechanism which continued several hours. The heat may come from the flare via heat conduction from its ribbon or from the excitation of dissipating Alfvén waves. However, from the data analysis, we conclude that the flare triggered an in-situ heating, which is likely caused by magnetic reconnection.     

基于GIS的秦岭山地气温空间分布

提出一种以气象站点观测资料为基础,用G IS技术建立山地平均气温分布模型的方法。通过数字高程模型(DEM),获取地形数据,建立山地天文辐射模型。考虑海拔高度、地形等影响气温空间分布因子,建立山地气温分布模型。     

南海含天然气水合物地层地震反射特征及可能分布研究

天然气水合物是当前能源与环境领域的研究热点之一,南中国海是天然气水合物赋存的有利区域。天然气水合物的存在改变了沉积地层的声学特征,这一性质使多道地震勘探成为发现海洋天然气水合物的主要手段。本文首先根据地震成像结果定性分析南海可能含天然气水合物沉积地层的地震反射特征,初步确定天然气水合物存在的可能性并指出地震成像关键技术。在无井条件下,构建虚拟井进行波阻抗反演得到定量的地层速度参数进一步证实这一可能性,最后将反演获得的速度场与ODP184 航次在此区域获得的地球物理、地球化学信息综合分析,可以确定此区域天然气水合物的存在及其空间展布。     

夏热冬暖地区建筑节能设计分析

本文根据夏热冬暖地区的气候特点，针对目前建筑节能设计存在的薄弱环节，分析了建筑围护结构的构造措施及其热工性能，提出在节能设计中应注意的问题。     

南海晚新生代地层结构特征、沉积厚度及沉积模式

本文综合地震、钻井及区域地质资料，通过分析地震相参数等，研究南海晚新生代（E3-Q）地层结构特征和沉积厚度变化，建立了晚新生代沉积模式，所取得的研究成果可为南海油气的进一步勘探开发提供有效的基础资料。