CoLM 模拟土壤温度和湿度最敏感参数的研究

合理的参数估计是提高陆面模式模拟能力的关键,而其过高的维数极大地增加了合理估计的难度。参数的敏感性分析,旨在针对目标变量找出最敏感的参数,从而实现在有限计算机资源条件下,对参数进行合理估计。本文以Common Land Model(CoLM)为研究对象,利用Morris 方法定性地从40 个参数中筛选出影响土壤温度和土壤湿度的敏感参数,并通过Sobol' 方法从敏感性顺序和各敏感参数的累积贡献率两个方面,对Morris 方法分析结果进行验证。在此基础上,本研究还利用Sobol' 方法对已筛选的参数做定量敏感性分析,最终确定参数的主效应、交互效应和总效应。研究结果表明,Morris 方法可以基于少量样本实现复杂的陆面模式的参数筛选,而Sobol' 方法的结果又从定量的角度描述了每个敏感参数对模型响应的影响程度,并且两种方法结论一致。     

Mass Transfer Velocity and Momentum Vertical Exchange in Simulated Deep Street Canyons

A box model to simulate mass transfer inside deep street canyons and with atmospheric flow above is introduced and discussed. Two ideal deep street canyons with aspect ratios of 3 and 5 (the aspect ratio being the ratio between building height and street width H/W) are considered. This range of aspect ratios, found in many densely populated historical centres in Mediterranean cities as well as in other cities around the world, potentially creates high air pollutant concentration levels. Our model is based on a combination of analytical solutions and computation fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations using carbon monoxide (CO) as a tracer pollutant. The analytical part of the model is based on mass transfer velocity concepts while CFD simulations are used both for a preliminary validation of the physical hypothesis underlying the model (steady-state simulations) and to evaluate the concentration pattern with time (transient or wash-out simulations). Wash-out simulation curves were fitted by model curves, and mass transfer velocities were evaluated through a best-fitting procedure. Upon introducing into the model the contribution of traffic-produced turbulence, the modelled CO concentration levels became comparable with those obtained in real-world monitoring campaigns. The mass transfer rate between the canyon and the above atmosphere was then expressed in terms of an overall mass transfer velocity, which directly allows the evaluation of the mass transfer rate between the bottom volume of the canyon (pedestrian level) with the above atmosphere. Overall mass transfer velocities are reported as a function of the operating conditions studied (H/W = 3–5 and wind speeds = 2–8 ms⁻¹). Finally, a simple expression is reported for determining pollutant concentrations at the pedestrian level based on the overall mass transfer velocity defined.     

夏季东亚环流年际和年代际变化对登陆中国台风的影响

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,探讨夏季东亚大气环流、大气视热源和视水汽汇的年际及年代际变化与登陆中国台风频数的关系.研究表明:夏季200 hPa风场上南亚高压中心位置偏北(南)其形态表现向东北(东南)伸展,西太平洋热带地区上空(200 hPa)的东风急流加强(减弱),中层(500 hPa)西太平洋副热带高压脊线位置偏北(南),低层(850 hPa)东亚夏季风环流偏强(弱),登陆中国台风数偏多(少).夏季东亚-西太平洋热带大气视热源和视水汽汇为正(负)距平, 即东亚热带大气出现辐射加热(冷却)和变湿(变干),登陆中国台风数偏多(少).20世纪50～60年代登陆中国台风频数处于年代际变化相对偏少期,70～90年代中期登陆中国台风频数处于年代际变化相对偏多期.夏季登陆中国台风频数的年代际变化与西太平洋热带大气视热源、视水汽汇及西太平洋热带海温的年代际变化一致,西太平洋热带大气视热源、视水汽汇及西太平洋热带海温处在年代际变化的低(高)值阶段时,夏季登陆中国台风频数也处在年代际变化的偏少(多)期.     

全球变暖减缓期陆地地表气温变化特征和CMIP5多模式的未来情景预估

2000年后全球气温的增温率显著下降,全球进入变暖减缓期.本文基于CRU(Climatic Research Unit) 观测资料,分析讨论了2000年后全球及欧亚中高纬度地区全球变暖的减缓特征,评估了CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)试验多模式对全球变暖减缓的模拟及未来气温变化预估.结果表明,2000年后全球陆地平均地面气温的增温率大幅下降至0.14℃ (10 a)-1,仅为1976~1999年加速期增温率的一半.全球陆地13个区域中有9个地区的增温率小于2000年前,4个地区甚至出现了降温.其中以欧亚中高纬地区最为特殊.加速期(1976~1999年)增温率达到0.50℃ (10 a)-1,为全球陆地最大,2000年后陡降至-0.17℃ (10 a)-1,为全球最强降温区,为全球变暖的减缓贡献了49.13%.并且具有显著的季节依赖,减缓期冬季增温率下降了-2.68℃ (10 a)-1,而秋季升高了0.86℃ (10 a)-1,呈现反位相变化特征.CMIP5多模式计划中仅BCC-CSM1.1在RCP2.6情景下和MRI-ESM1模式在RCP8.5下的模拟较好地预估了全球及欧亚中高纬地区在2000年后增温率的下降以及欧亚中高纬秋、冬温度的反位相变化特征.BCC-CSM1.1在RCP2.6情景下预估欧亚中高纬地区2012年后温度距平保持在1.2℃左右,2020年后跃至2℃附近振荡.而MRI-ESM1在RCP8.5情景下预估的欧亚中高纬度温度在2030年前一直维持几乎为零的增温率,之后迅速升高.     

台风灾害综合等级评估模型及应用

选取全国范围内台风灾害中的农作物受灾面积、房屋倒损数、死亡人数、直接经济损失4个常用灾害指标,通过建立无量纲函数转换定义了全国范围内台风各个单项灾害指标的等级,并利用灰色关联度理论确定了全国范围内台风灾害综合等级划分标准,基于上述工作建立了台风灾害综合等级快速评估模型。利用此模型对2000-2007年登陆我国的台风灾害进行了评判与排序,分析结果较为合理。     

大气活动中心长期变化的阶段性

本文根据1871—1970年全球一月、七月海平面的月平均气压,讨论了全球各大气活动中心长期变化的阶段性,同时还讨论了阶段性与太阳黑子数的关系及阶段性在统计学上的意义.我们得到以下几个主要结果: 1.大气活动中心的长期变化存在着阶段,这种阶段一般持续为40—60年. 2.本世纪30年代许多大气活动中心发生了较明显的阶段转折. 3.大气活动中心及气候要素的阶段转折与太阳黑子数的变化有一定的关系.     

理想模拟的温带气旋中冷暖输送带特征分析

本文利用WRF理想斜压波模式模拟了理想湿大气中温带气旋的快速发展过程,采用拉格朗日轨迹筛选方法识别了气旋内部冷、暖输送带结构,分析了沿着输送带轨迹的物理量演变特征,探究了输送带气流对气旋降水结构的影响。本文在再现前人研究结论的基础上,发现了更精细的输送带结构特征,尤其是对冷输送带特征有了进一步认识。研究表明,根据相对气旋中心运动特征可将暖输送带划分为“前倾上升”和“后倾上升”两支。两支气流均起始于对流层低层冷锋前暖区内,旋转上升到对流层中高层出流区后分别向气旋中心的下游和上游运动,并在中高层产生负位涡扰动,促进高空系统发展。同时,暖输送带向上层输送水汽,影响锋面附近降水中心的形成和维持。在对冷输送带的研究中,本文证实了前人研究描述的上升类和低层运动类特征,而且发现其可以更精细地呈现出四支气流结构。“前倾上升”和“后倾上升”两支气流的初始位置靠近暖锋,上升运动到对流层中层后分别向气旋中心的下游和上游运动,利于促进暖锋附近降水形成;而“环气旋前倾”和“环气旋后倾”两支气流始终在对流层低层运动,初始远离暖锋朝向气旋中心运动,水汽含量增加,随后环绕气旋中心缓慢上升运动到气旋西侧后分别向气旋下游...     

播撒盐粉局部消除暖雾的数值模拟

本文使用二维暖雾数值模式来研究人工播撒盐粉局部消除暖雾的物理过程以及盐粉粒子半径、盐粉播撒量、雾层厚度和雾中液水含量对消雾效果的影响。结果表明,使用盐粉局部消除暖雾以增大播撒区的能见度是完全可能的。一般来讲,较大的盐粉粒子和较大的播撒量更有利于提高消雾的效果,但消雾的成本以及对环境的污染也随之加大。文章最后对使用大水滴代替盐滴进行消雾的可能性提出初步的看法。      

Visibility trends in six megacities in China 1973–2007

The particulate matter pollution has been serious in Chinese megacities due to the rapidly expanding economic and industrial developments, which has significant influences in atmospheric visibility. Visibility is a highly relevant factor indicating the level of atmospheric quality, and is inversely related to the optical extinction coefficient caused by gas and particle phases. In our study, visibility trends for six major megacities (Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenyang, and Xi'an) in China were evaluated during 1973–2007 on the basis of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) database using four measurement methods: the days per year of daily visibility < 10 km, the days per year of daily visibility > 19 km, the annual mean visibility, and the dry extinction coefficient. The annual and seasonal change trends of visibility for each city were analyzed by using a linear regression model. The annual mean visibilities for the six cities (Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenyang, and Xi'an) were 10.67, 8.60, 10.76, 8.59, 8.16, and 9.74 km respectively. Shenyang has experienced a significant increasing trend during the entire time series while visibilities for other five sites showed decreasing trends especially since the middle of 1990s. In the southern and midwestern regions (Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Xi'an), visibility was best in summer, whereas in the northern regions (Beijing and Shenyang), visibility was best in spring. Mean visibility in spring was worst at Guangzhou, while for the other five cities visibility in winter was worst, probably because of coal burning during the heating period. The general degradation of visibility in these megacities was probably due to the excess aerosol loading. Consequently, an urgent targeted reduction of aerosol pollution may be needed for the sake of better air quality in Chinese megacities.     

基于CyGNSS数据的土壤水分与植被光学厚度反演研究

本文提出了一种仅基于CyGNSS数据,能够同时反演土壤水分与植被光学厚度的方案,该方案使用了神经网络与暴力穷举算法.首先考察了2018年以及2020年的数据,并对结果进行了验证.通过分析发现反演结果与参考数据展现了良好的一致性.土壤水分的反演结果与2018年和2020年的测试数据比较,其相关系数分别高达0.86和0.84,均方根误差分别为0.064和0.071 cm³/cm³;对于植被光学厚度,2018年与2020年的相关系数均为0.98,均方根误差分别为0.079和0.084.研究结果表明,CyGNSS可作为一种新型且独立的泛热带土壤水分与植被光学厚度反演手段.