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针对参数回归技术制作概率预报存在拟合好、但预报结果不稳定的现象, 提出了用K近邻非参数回归技术制作概率预报的新途径。K 近邻非参数回归技术包括历史样本数据库、近邻子集生成和优化以及预报量估计4 个主要部分。利用该技术进行了单要素概率预报(主要包括云量和降水)和多维联合概率预报(降水、总云量、风速和气温)试验, 并对试验结果进行了检验。实例研究结果表明:该文所给出的计算方案预报稳定性好, 准确率较高,具有良好的业务应用价值。 相似文献
13.
Long-chain alkyl diols contain an alkyl chain with alcohol groups at C1 and at the middle position of carbon chain, which exist widely in seas, rivers and lakes. It has been proven that these compounds are relatively resistant to degradation and have an extended occurrence in the geological record. In addition, they are relatively easy to identify. Therefore, long-chain alkyl diols can be used as potential biomarkers to trace the past change in paleoenvironment and paleoclimate. Although the sources of long-chain alkyl diols are still uncertain, the studies indicate that 1, 13 and 1, 15-diols are mainly produced by eustigmatophytes, while 14-diols are mainly from diatom Proboscia. So far, some proxies based on long-chain alkyl diols have been established to indicate the change in diatom productivity, upwelling intensity, salinity, sea surface temperature, riverine organic matter input and surface seawater nutrient concentration, which are significant for paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Current research and application of long-chain alkyl diols proxies were summarized, which would be helpful for further studying the source of long-chain alkyl diols and the application of relevant proxies in China’s marginal sea. 相似文献
14.
F. Fabio Fussi Letizia Fumagalli Francesco Fava Biagio Di Mauro Cheik Hamidou Kane Magatte Niang Souleye Wade Barry Hamidou Roberto Colombo Tullia Bonomi 《Hydrogeology Journal》2017,25(8):2263-2279
A method is proposed that uses analysis of borehole stratigraphic logs for the characterization of shallow aquifers and for the assessment of areas suitable for manual drilling. The model is based on available borehole-log parameters: depth to hard rock, depth to water, thickness of laterite and hydraulic transmissivity of the shallow aquifer. The model is applied to a study area in northwestern Senegal. A dataset of boreholes logs has been processed using a software package (TANGAFRIC) developed during the research. After a manual procedure to assign a standard category describing the lithological characteristics, the next step is the automated extraction of different textural parameters and the estimation of hydraulic conductivity using reference values available in the literature. The hydraulic conductivity values estimated from stratigraphic data have been partially validated, by comparing them with measured values from a series of pumping tests carried out in large-diameter wells. The results show that this method is able to produce a reliable interpretation of the shallow hydrogeological context using information generally available in the region. The research contributes to improving the identification of areas where conditions are suitable for manual drilling. This is achieved by applying the described method, based on a structured and semi-quantitative approach, to classify the zones of suitability for given manual drilling techniques using data available in most African countries. Ultimately, this work will support proposed international programs aimed at promoting low-cost water supply in Africa and enhancing access to safe drinking water for the population. 相似文献
15.
东亚大气环流的低频振荡及与韵律的关系 总被引:1,自引:2,他引:1
本文根据北半球500hPa高度场30年(1951—1980)平均的逐候格点资料,对气候平均的东亚各主要大气环流系统的年内变化进行了谐波分析和天气学分析.结果表明,东亚大气环流系统存在着三种主要的大气低频波:年波、半年波和30—50天的季内波;中、高纬度的大气环流以年波振荡为主,低纬度的大气环流以半年波振荡为主;30—50天的季内波是北半球各纬度上都存在的一种波,但它对总方差的贡献在低纬比中、高纬度大.此外,还讨论了年波和半年波这两种大气低频波与我国长期预报中常用的各种韵律指标特别是隔季相关现象的关系. 相似文献
16.
Seagrass importance for a small-scale fishery in the tropics: The need for seascape management 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Small-scale fisheries (SSF) in tropical seascapes (mosaics of interconnected mangroves, seagrasses and corals) are crucial for food and income. However, management is directed mostly to corals and mangroves. This research analyzes the importance of seagrasses compared to adjacent ecosystems in Chwaka Bay, Zanzibar, Tanzania. Using fish landings; the study investigated: location of fishing effort, fish production (biomass and species), and monetary benefits (aggregated value and per capita income). Seagrasses were the most visited grounds providing highest community benefits. Per capita benefits were equivalent to those from corals and mangroves. All three habitats provided income just above extreme poverty levels; however catches from seagrass appeared more stable. Seagrass are key ecosystems supporting SSF and protection and management are urgently needed. Adoption of a seascape approach considering all ecosystems underpinning SSF and the social aspects of fishing and a shift in emphasis from pure conservation to sustainable resource management would be desirable. 相似文献
17.
鄂尔多斯盆地北部直罗组有机质特征及与铀成矿关系 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文研究了鄂尔多斯盆地典型铀矿床的有机质与铀成矿的关系。探讨了煤屑的赋存状态、煤质特征及成熟度,认为煤屑的演化程度均较低,处于低成熟阶段,有利于对铀的吸附。总体上看煤质有机质和铀矿化关系密切,铀含量与煤屑含量呈正相关关系,对铀矿物为吸附态形式。通过对该区油气包裹体的研究认为,该区存在多期次的成岩方解石胶结过程,并伴随多期次的油气包裹体发育,尤以晚期的胶结方解石矿物中存在丰富的晚期油气包裹体。研究认为晚期可能发生过油、气的运移和聚集,铀矿床的形成与赋矿砂岩中有机流体或还原性气体的充注和络合作用密切相关,因而这些丰富的有机流体和还原性气体对于铀的富集沉淀具有重要意义。 相似文献
18.
In the northwestern North Pacific, annual net air-sea CO2 flux is greatest in the Kuroshio Extension(KE) zone,owing to its low annual mean partial pressure of CO2(pCO2), and it decreases southward across the basin. To quantify the influences of factors controlling the latitudinal gradient in CO2 uptake, sea surface pCO2 and related parameters were investigated in late spring of 2018 in a study spanning the KE, Kuroshio Recirculation(KR), and... 相似文献
19.
Gilberto Saccorotti Ivan Lokmer Christopher J. Bean Giuseppe Di Grazia Domenico Patan 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2007,160(3-4):340-354
Following the installation of a broadband network on Mt. Etna, sustained Long-Period (LP) activity was recorded accompanying a period of total quiescence and the subsequent onset of the 2004–2005 effusive episode. From about 56000 events detected by an automatic classification procedure, we analyse a subset of about 3000 signals spanning the December 17th, 2003–September 25th, 2004, time interval. LP spectra are characterised by several, unevenly-spaced narrow peaks spanning the 0.5–10 Hz frequency band. These peaks are common to all the recording sites of the network, and different from those associated with tremor signals. Throughout the analysed time interval, LP spectra and waveforms maintain significant similarity, thus indicating the involvement of a non-destructive source process that we interpret in terms of the resonance of a fluid-filled buried cavity. Polarisation analysis indicates radiation from a non-isotropic source involving large amounts of shear. Concurrently with LP signals, recordings from the summit station also depict Very-Long-Period (VLP) pulses whose rectilinear motion points to a region located beneath the summit craters at depths ranging between 800 and 1100 m beneath the surface. Based on a refined repicking of similar waveforms, we obtain robust locations for a selected subset of the most energetic LP events from probabilistic inversion of travel-times calculated for a 3D heterogenous structure. LP sources cluster in a narrow volume located beneath the summit craters, and extending to a maximum depth of ≈ 800 m beneath the surface. No causal relationships are observed between LP, VLP and tremor activities and the onset of the 2004–2005 lava effusions, thus indicating that magmatic overpressure played a limited role in triggering this eruption. These data represent the very first observation of LP and VLP activity at Etna during non-eruptive periods, and open the way to the quantitative modelling of the geometry and dynamics of the shallow plumbing system. 相似文献
20.
Giuliano Milana Paola Bordoni Fabrizio Cara Giuseppe Di Giulio Salomon Hailemikael Antonio Rovelli 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):2195-2209
Strong ground motions recorded on the sedimentary deposits of the Po River alluvial plain during the Emilia (Northern Italy) Mw 5.7 earthquake of May 29, 2012 are used to assess the vertical profile of shear-wave velocity above the limestone basement. Data were collected by a linear array installed for site effect studies after the Mw 5.9 mainshock of May 20, 2012. The array stations, equipped with both strong and weak motion sensors, are aligned in the South–North direction, at distances ranging from 1 to 26 km from the epicenter. The vertical components of ground motion show very distinctive, large-amplitude, low-frequency dispersive wave trains. Wavelet analysis yields group-velocity dispersion curve in the 0.2–0.7 Hz frequency band. The availability of a long ambient noise record allows estimates of the site resonance frequency along with its stability among stations. The joint inversion of dispersion of surface waves and ellipticity curves derived from ambient noise H/V allows extending investigations down to the sediment-limestone interface, at a depth of about 5,000 m. Our results add new information about the velocity structure at a scale that is intermediate between the local scale already investigated by other authors with small-aperture arrays using ambient noise and the regional scale inferred from modeling of seismogram waveforms recorded at hundreds of kilometers from the source. 相似文献