A comparative study of sequential minimal optimization-based support vector machines,vote feature intervals,and logistic regression in landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS

Landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS has been done for part of Uttarakhand region of Himalaya (India) with the objective of comparing the predictive capability of three different machine learning methods, namely sequential minimal optimization-based support vector machines (SMOSVM), vote feature intervals (VFI), and logistic regression (LR) for spatial prediction of landslide occurrence. Out of these three methods, the SMOSVM and VFI are state-of-the-art methods for binary classification problems but have not been applied for landslide prediction, whereas the LR is known as a popular method for landslide susceptibility assessment. In the study, a total of 430 historical landslide polygons and 11 landslide affecting factors such as slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, curvature, lithology, soil, land cover, distance to roads, distance to rivers, distance to lineaments, and rainfall were selected for landslide analysis. For validation and comparison, statistical index-based methods and the receiver operating characteristic curve have been used. Analysis results show that all these models have good performance for landslide spatial prediction but the SMOSVM model has the highest predictive capability, followed by the VFI model, and the LR model, respectively. Thus, SMOSVM is a better model for landslide prediction and can be used for landslide susceptibility mapping of landslide-prone areas.     

Early J2 basalts in SE China: Incipience of large-scale late Mesozoic magmatism

Magmatism in SE China was dormant during 204–180 Ma, but was reactivated in 180–170 Ma (early J₂), and then became more and more intensive towards the end of early Cretaceous. The small-scale early J₂ magmatism is the incipience to long-term and large-scale magmatism in this region. A near east-west (EW) trend volcanic belt was distributed across south Hunan, south Jiangxi and southwest Fujian was formed during early J₂ time. Along this belt from the inland toward the coast, the lithology of basalts changes from alkali into tholeiite, and the amount of erupted volcanic rocks and the proportions of rhyolites coexisting with the basalts increase. On the basis of geochemical characteristics of these basalts, we infer that the melting degree of source rocks and the extent of fractional crystallization and crustal contamination all increased whereas the depth of mantle source decreased from the inland to the coast, which led to the variations of geological characteristics of the volcanic belt. In early J₂, the western spreading Pacific plate began to subduct underneath SE China continental block, reactivating near EW trend deep fault that was originally formed during the Indosinian event. The stress of the western spreading Pacific plate and the extent of asthenosphere upwelling increased from the inland to the coast, which is consistent with the generation and evolution of early J₂ basalts.     

包头市昆都仑水库增雨燃烧炉首次作业的效果分析

通过2009年5月27日包头市昆都仑水库地面增雨燃烧炉作业实况和多普勒天气雷达速度、713天气雷达回波及区域地面自动雨量站资料的对比分析,发现在深厚的层状云系中,适时进行地面燃烧炉增雨作业,可增强区域降水量,提高增雨作业能力。分析结果为指导包头地区地面燃烧炉布点和增雨作业提供了科学依据。     

鄂温克旗干旱、洪涝灾害期评定及预测方法

根据鄂温克旗1959—2008年气象历史资料,统一归类,并采用统计预报方法,简要评定预测出鄂温克旗50年来主要气象灾害之一的干旱、洪涝灾害期,为鄂温克旗防范旱涝灾害做参考。     

阿尔金活动断裂带的分数维及分析

本文应用分数维理论，计算了阿尔金活动断裂带的分数维值，从分数维值的大小反映断裂构造复杂程度的观点出发，分析了阿尔金活动断裂带的活动特点。     

威海市杨家滩水源地地下水资源评价

本文分析了威海市杨家滩不源地第四系冲洪积－海相沉积物分规律和水文地质特征；在此基础上，应用有限单元方法进行了地下水量评价和预测水源地地下水位的变化趋势；提出了最优开采方案。     

横断山脉地区大气环流演变特征分析

应用Lamb-Jenkinson大气环流分型方法对横断山脉地区的8个经度×10个纬度范围内1948-2012年逐日平均的海平面气压场进行环流分型,由日平均海平面气压场算出6个环流指数（u、v、V、ξu、ξv、ξ）,并由此划分出27种不同的环流型。分型结果表明：横断山脉地区主要环流分型为E型、NE型、SE型、N型和C型,其频率分别为：21.4%、14.6%、13.7%、9.8%和9.5%;E和NE型环流频率逐渐增加,C型环流型频率逐渐减少。春季横断山脉地区主导环流比较繁琐;NE、N型为夏季的主要环流型,但E型环流在夏季的频率也相当大;秋季和冬季横断山脉地区的主导环流型都为E型和SE型。夏季主导环流型持续时间较长,冬季也是主导环流持续的时间较长,个别年份主导环流型持续时间超过了一个月,这主要与横断山脉地区复杂的地形有联系。     

CCD Photometry and Long-Term Optical Variability of 3C 345

This paper presents evidence for long-term optical variability and colour behaviour of the blazar 3C 345 (1641+399, z=0.595). Our results show that the amplitude of the optical variations of 3C 345 has been only about 3 magnitudes from its photometric history; existent significant correlation between brightness and colours is found for 3C 345. Our recent CCD photometry of 3C 345 in May 1996 and May 1997 showed that they are in good agreement with our prediction of the optical variability period of about 10 years (see Zhang et al., 1998; Webb et al., 1988). This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The potential of contribution of mangrove-derived organic matter in intertidal sediments as a proxy of mangrove development in the northern Beibu Gulf

University of Maryland, College Park     

煤层冲刷带预测方法评述

介绍了沉积分析法、矿井物探法以及地质统计法三种煤层冲刷带预测方法.实例证明,根据煤矿生产的具体情况,选择一种或综合运用几种方法,能较好地预测冲刷带的位置和范围.