Stochastic evaluation of simple pairing approaches to reconstruct incomplete rainfall time series

Two-station pairing approaches are routinely used to infill missing information in incomplete rainfall databases. We evaluated the performance of three simple methodologies to reconstruct incomplete time series in presence of variable nonlinear correlation between data pairs. Nonlinearity stems from the statistics describing the marginal peak-over-threshold (POT) values of rainfall events. A Monte Carlo analysis was developed to quantitatively assess expected errors from the use of chronological pairing (CP) with linear and nonlinear regression and frequency pairing (FP). CP is based on a priori selection of regression functions, while FP is based on matching the probability of non-exceedance of an event from one time series with the probability of non-exceedance of a similar event from another time series. We adopted a generalized Pareto (GP) model to describe POT events, and a t-copula algorithm to generate reference nonlinearly correlated pairs of random temporal distributions distributed according with the GP model. The results suggest that the optimal methodology strongly depends on GP statistics. In general, CP seems to provide the lowest errors when GP statistics were similar and correlation became linear; we found that a power-2 function performs well for the selected statistics when the number of missing points is limited. FP outperforms the other methods when POT statistics are different and variables are markedly nonlinearly correlated. Ensemble-based results seem to be supported by the analysis of observed precipitation at two real-world gauge stations.     

Further results on the heating of single and multi-core lead-rubber bearings and dampers

Single-core and to a certain extent multi-core lead-rubber bearings have been extensively used in seismic isolation. Yet their behavior is not well understood and experimentation is required to obtain their mechanical properties. A recently developed and validated theory contributed to the understanding of the effects of heating of the lead core on the characteristic strength and ability to dissipate energy of these bearings. Additional results on the theory of heating of lead-rubber bearings are presented in this paper, including readily useable data on the rise of temperature in the steel shim and end plates of these bearings. The results may be used in the assessment of the validity of the theory of lead core heating in single and multi-core lead-rubber bearings and in recently developed multi-core lead-rubber dampers. Examples are presented (including some experimental data) to illustrate the application of the theory. The utility of the presented theory is to reduce the requirements for physical testing of lead-rubber bearings and dampers.     

Application of SASHA to seismic hazard assessment for Portugal mainland

In the frame of the UPStrat-MAFA “Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources” project, seismic hazard has been assessed in Portugal in terms of macroseismic intensity. Assessment has been performed by using a probabilistic approach based on the statistical analysis of local seismic histories (i.e., the record of seismic effects at each locality) performed by a new version of the SASHA code (D’Amico and Albarello in Res Lett 79(5):663–671, 2008) on purpose modified to account for this specific area of study. Local seismic histories are reconstructed by considering documented effects or indirect estimates deduced from epicentral information or numerical simulations. All these pieces of evidence are combined taking into account relevant uncertainty and statistical completeness of information locally available. Distribution of expected maximum intensity (i.e., the maximum intensity characterized by a fixed exceedance probability for a exposure time of 50 years) has been obtained and compared with the one deduced from alternative approaches.     

On the use of the autocorrelation function: the constraint of using frequency band-limited signals for monitoring relative velocity changes

Correlations of seismic noise are commonly used to monitor temporal variations of relative seismic velocity in period ranges from 1 s up to 100 s. Of particular interest is the detection of small changes in the order of 0.01–0.1 % in propagation speeds. Measuring such small differences can, however, be significantly biased by temporal variations in the properties of the noise sources within the corresponding frequency band. Using synthetic data, we show that apparent relative velocity variations might appear only due to changes in the amplitude and frequency content caused by source variations. Removing such unwanted effects by applying narrow bandpass filters in the preprocessing restricts the high-resolution analysis of any signal due to Gabor’s uncertainty limit, i.e., the correlation function suffers a limited resolution to time delay estimates for small correlation times, low-frequency ranges, and in narrow frequency bands. Better understanding of spatiotemporal noise source properties and the theoretical limitations of time–frequency analysis is critical for accurate and reliable passive monitoring.     

Advances in environmental behaviors and effects of dissolved organic matter in aquatic ecosystems

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is a group of compounds that have complex chemical structures and multiple interactions with their surrounding materials. More than one trillion tons of DOM are stocked in the world’s aquatic ecosystems. DOM is a very important part of aquatic ecosystem productivity and plays a crucial role in global carbon cycling. DOM has rich environmental behaviors and effects such as influencing the bioavailability of contaminants, serving as an important inducer of reactive oxygen species (ROS), and protecting aquatic organisms from the harm of dangerous ultraviolet radiation. There have been many systematic studies on the composition, structure, and sources of DOM because such studies are much easier to conduct than studies on the environmental behaviors and effects of DOM. Due to many factors, the research systems of DOM’s environmental behaviors and effects are still being developed and have become a hotspot of environmental science. This review paper focuses on some critical progress, problems, and trends of DOM’s environmental behaviors and effects in aquatic ecosystems, including mutual exchange mechanisms between DOM and particulate organic matter (POM) with influencing factors, photochemical behaviors of DOM especially inducing ROS, binding interactions between DOM and anthropogenic organic contaminants (AOC), interactions between DOM and microorganisms, effects of DOM on pollutants’ bioavailability, ecotoxicity, and ecological risks. Hopefully, this paper will contribute to a more systematic understanding of the DOM environmental behaviors and effects and to promoting further relevant studies.     

Reducing the biases in shortwave cloud radiative forcing in tropical and subtropical regions from the perspective of boundary layer processes

Biases in shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF), which cause overestimates in tropical regions and underestimates in subtropical marine stratocumulus regions, are common in many climate models. Here, two boundary layer processes are investigated in the atmospheric model GAMIL2, entrainment at the top of the boundary layer and longwave radiative cooling at the top of stratocumulus clouds, in order to reduce biases and reveal the mechanisms underlying these processes. Our results show that including the entrainment process in the model can reduce negative SWCF biases in most tropical regions but increases positive SWCF biases in subtropical marine stratocumulus regions. This occurs because entrainment reduces the low-level cloud fraction and its cloud liquid water content by suppressing the vertical turbulent diffusion in the boundary layer and decreasing the relative humidity when warm and dry free atmosphere is entrained in the boundary layer. Longwave radiative cooling at the top of stratocumulus clouds can enhance turbulent diffusion within the stratocumulus-topped boundary layer. When combined with the entrainment process, longwave radiative cooling reduces the positive SWCF biases in subtropical marine stratocumulus regions that are observed using the entrainment process alone. The incorporation of these two boundary layer processes improves the simulated SWCF in tropical and subtropical regions in GAMIL2.     

The spatial distribution of archaeal lipids in a mesoscale subtropical watershed,Southeast China

Archaea play an important role in global carbon and nitrogen cycles. Archaeal lipids, such as isoprenoid glycerol diakyl glycerol tetraethers (iGDGTs), are important biomarkers tracing change in archaeal community structure and biogeochemical processes in the natural environments. In this research, the spatial distributions of archaeal lipids in the surface sediments of the Jiulong River (JR) and the Jiulong River estuary (JRE) were examined. GDGT-0 (containing zero cyclopentyl ring) and crenarchaeol were the most abundant iGDGTs in the JR and JRE. From the rivers to the estuary, the total iGDGTs, GDGT-0, crenarchaeol and archaeol concentrations showed significant spatial variation; in particular, GDGT-0 and archaeol in the river may be predominantly derived in situ from methanogens, whereas crenarchaeol in the estuary mainly derived in situ from Thaumarchaeota. We inferred that archaeal community was dominated by methanogens in the Jiulong River and by Thaumarchaeota in the Jiulong River estuary, which are consistent with change in archaeal community structure observed in other estuarine environments.