新疆富蕴地区晚第四纪松散沉积的孢粉研究

据对新疆富蕴吐尔洪及干沟等剖面的孢粉分析,揭示这些剖面沉积时期的气候温和干燥,植被为荒漠草原或稀树草原。孢粉分析结果及14C年龄数据说明,这些沉积物的地质时代属全新世。通过对取自断层两侧沉积物的孢粉分析研究,获知此断层的形成时间不会早于全新世     

我国部份地区雷暴活动、大气电场等与太阳活动的关系

本文用时序迭加法统计分析了1976—1985年太阳黑子一个完整周期内太阳活动与雷暴活动及地面大气电场之间的可能相关性。结果表明:高纬度地区有较好的相关性,耀斑爆发以后雷暴指数有明显增大趋势,最大关联日在+5日以后。中、低纬度地区几乎不存在相关性。随着耀斑强度增强,相关性也增大,且影响区域从高纬度向中、低纬度移动。在耀斑爆发后2天左右,地面电场强度增大,其关联日比雷暴指数提前。太阳黑子数和雷暴活动之间的相关性很微弱。本文又从全球电路概念出发,简单地解释了形成上述相关性的可能原因。     

1987年9月19日富蕴北5.8级地震

1987年6月19日新疆富蕴县可可托海镇西北发生了Ms=5.8级地震,震中位于喀依尔提河与阿拉散河交汇处,震中烈度为Ⅶ度,等震线长轴方向与可可托海——二台断裂基本一致。震中区人员无伤亡,仅有山石滚落;Ⅵ、Ⅴ度区内的土平房、有不同程度的损坏个别砖平房,楼房出现裂缝。这次地震属于孤立型地震,震前有中短期异常。     

ON THE MECHANISM OF TELECONNECTIONS BETWEEN EL NINO AND EAST ASIAN ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION

Based on the linear planetary wave theory and observed data,the teleconnections between El Nino andatmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere(NH)are studied.It is shown that the zonal groupvelocity for stationary Rossby waves in the atmosphere is always positive.Thus,the energy of thesedisturbances can not propagate westward.In certain conditions,however,the westward propagation ofnonstationary waves is possible.Going further into this question,we prove that the low-frequency distur-bances over the eastern equatorial Pacific,which are closely related to the large-scale air-sea interactionin low-latitudes,can influence the extratropical atmospheric circulation in the NH along two typical energypaths;i.e.,the waves with wavenumber one(n=1)propagate through the western North Pacific into EastAsia and form the“East Asian Path”,which plays an important part in the teleconnections between ElNino and atmospheric anomalies over East Asia,besides,the waves with n≥2 propagate along the“PNAPath”into the middle and eastern North Pacific as well as North America,leading to the relevant atmos-pheric anomalies to be excited over there.     

节气与灾害

节气是我国古人的创见,它属于东方科学观点,在农时上具有重大意义。除此之外,我们发现,它在灾害预测上也有价值。我们曾发现上海的龙卷风以及与我国同纬度的美国的龙卷风的发生在节气日占优势。今年以来我们对我国的灾害性天气作了检验,发现绝大多数也发生在节气日或其附近,其余多在期望日或其附近。现列举于下:     

湖北地区历史有感地震震级测定方法的探讨

1.引言中国地震记载虽有数千年的历史,但无烈度和震级量度,仅有文字的直观叙述,如何根据历史记录资料来确定震级,以便进而研究地震分布及其活动规律,这是十分必要的基础工作。     

Research on the regionalQ values of coda waves for the aftershocks in Luquan,Yunnan of 1985

Based on the scattering coda model by which local and regional earthquakes are interpreted (K. Aki, 1969), and using observational coda data of 68 aftershocks of the 1985 Luquan, Yunnan earthquake registered by the VGK seismographs installed at 12 stations in the Yunnan regional short-period network, theQ-values of coda waves are calculated respectively for 6 time intervals. It is observed that within the frequency range of 0.40–1.65 Hz of the observed data, theQ-values are closely related with the frequencies and the calculated codaQ ranges between 80–240 with the coefficient of frequency dependence η=0.45. The calculated source factorsB(f> _p) of the coda waves which indicate the scattering strength are mostly within the order 10^?23–10^?24. Areas with lowQ-values present high scattering. It should be noted that by comparing data obtained before and after the Luquan earthquake, clear changes can be detected in theQ-values measured at stations close to the epicentral region, and that theQ-values of the aftershock coda are less than about one half of the pre-shock values. It may be mentioned that the time-dependent regional variations of theQ-values might possibly bring about practical significance in earthquake prediction. Moreover, aftershock focal parameters are determined. Through discussions on the quantitative relations between the focal parameters, we get: 1gE=1.59M _L+ 11.335;E=(2.10 × 10^?5)M ₀; length of focal rupturea=0.40?0.80 km for 3.0≤M _L<5.0 events; stress drop Δσ=(6.0–130) ×10⁵ Pa. Through interpretation of the data, we have also learned the important characteristics that there is no linear relation between the stress drops and the earthquake magnitudes.     

Isostatic status in North China (1) Method and local compensation

Following Airy and Pratt principles, five kinds of local-compensation models are analysed and a rapid 3-D gravity formula is utilized to calculate isostatic anomalies for 66 models with different parameters. It is noted that isostatic gravity maps appear nearly identical in their main patterns and features. The optimum compensation model in North China is one of modified Airy models in which the different density distribution in the surface, upper crust and lower crust is taken into account and the standard crustal thickness is about 50km. The position of the complete compensation interface is located in the upper mantle. The North China platform as a whole is under sub-isostatic equilibrium status with an isostatic anomaly of about 18·10⁻⁵ m/s² on an average. The distribution of isostatic gravity anomaly shows an obvious blockwise pattern. Most positive anomaly areas occur over the eastern part, the Jiao-Liao Block, Mt. Yan block and northern margin of the Hebei-Shandong block, whereas a negative area occurs in the Shanxi graben. The comparison of models indicates that the Moho discontinuity is not suitable to be taken as a compensation interface, and the compensation effects in Airy model are better than that in Pratt model, which is consistent with the feature of dominant layered structure and less lateral inhomogeneity in crust. Some results about composite compensation, the basic characteristics of isostatic anomaly and deep stucture will be published later in the second part of this paper. Wang Bowen took part in some work in this paper.     

滑坡灾害预报的非线性动力学方法

基于现代反演理论,建立了滑坡灾害预测的非线性动力学模型,给出了可预报时间尺度的确定方法及稳定性判断准则。通过实例分析表明,非线性动力学分析方法是行之有效的。