利用压密方程计算分析西安市地面沉降特征

利用西安市地下水位监测资料,基于水文地质三维结构模型,在不考虑粘土层滞后压缩变形的理想情况下,采用压密方程计算获得西安市抽取地下水可引起的理论地面沉降量及沉降分布特征,结果表明:计算所得沉降显著区位于西安市西南部的高新区及东南部的曲江新区,沉降量呈由北向南递增的特征,与InSAR监测结果整体趋势具有较好的一致性;地面沉降分布特征受到活动地裂缝影响,沉降曲线呈近NE向偏转展布。研究结果可为沉降灾害预防研究提供宏观的参考信息。     

GNSS 监测数据预处理在变形预测中的应用

GNSS监测技术被广泛应用于变形监测工作中,但GNSS监测数据中会有缺失值、噪声等误差的存在,对预测结果造成影响。引入改进的小波神经网络模型进行变形预测,并考虑该模型的自适应性和容错性,分别采用三次样条插值法、小波滤波法和拉依达准则对原始监测数据进行缺失值填补、去噪和粗差剔除等预处理。并利用实际监测数据进行短期预报分析,对比原始监测数据和预处理后的监测数据的预测结果,结果表明预处理后的监测数据的预测效果更好。     

利用端元光谱内插的青海植被覆盖度估算研究

针对利用像元二分模型估算植被覆盖度的精度不高的问题,该文基于OSAVI,提出了选定模型参数(OSAVIs和OSAVIv)的方法,并将该方法应用于青海省植被覆盖度估算。该方法通过高分辨率影像在研究区内选取纯裸地和纯植被样点,并将纯裸地样点的OSAVI作为纯裸地样点像元的OSAVIs,将纯植被样点的OSAVI作为纯植被样点像元的OSAVIv,利用样点像元的OSAVIs和OSAVIv值,通过普通克里金内插法,求得研究区每个像元对应的OSAVIs和OSAVIv。经精度验证结果表明:此方法较常规的参数选取方法,RMSE由0.170降至0.156,MAE由0.137降至0.124。经进一步分析表明,此方法对边缘验证点和非边缘验证点的估算精度都有所提高,由于配准误差和周围地表漫反射的影响,边缘验证点的估算精度低于对非边缘验证点的估算精度。     

Atmospheric insight to climatic signals of δ~(18)O in a Laohugou ice core in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during 1960–2006

δ~(18)O variations;;ice core;;outgoing longwave radiation;;meridional wind;;northeastern Tibetan Plateau     

Analysis of the contribution of multiple factors to the recent decrease in discharge and sediment yield in the Yellow River Basin,China

The Yellow River basin is well known for its high sediment yield. However, this sediment yield has clearly decreased since the 1980s, especially after the year 2000. The annual average sediment yield was 1.2 billion tons before 2000, but has significantly decreased to 0.3 billion tons over the last 10 years. Changes in discharge and sediment yield for the Yellow River have attracted the attention of both the Central Government and local communities. This study aimed to identify the individual contributions of changes in precipitation and human activities (e.g. water conservancy projects, terracing, silt dams, socio-economic and needs, and soil and water conservation measures) to the decrease in discharge and sediment yield of the Yellow River. The study used both improved the hydrological method and the soil and water conservation method. The study focused on discharge analysis for the upper reaches and the investigation of sediments for the middle reaches of the river. The results showed that discharge and sediment yield have both presented significant decreasing trends over the past 50 years. Precipitation showed an insignificant decreasing trend over the same period. The annual average discharge decreased by 5.68 billion m³ above Lanzhou reach of the Yellow River from 2000 to 2012; human activities (e.g. socio-economic water use) contributed 43.4% of the total reduction, whereas natural factors (e.g. evaporation from lakes, wetlands and reservoirs) accounted for 56.6%. The decrease in annual discharge and sediment yield of the section between Hekouzhen station and Tongguan station were 12.4 billion m³ and 1.24 billion tons, respectively. Human activities contributed 76.5% and 72.2% of the total reduction in discharge and sediment yield, respectively, and were therefore the dominant factors in the changes in discharge and sediment yield of the Yellow River.     

Glacier changes in the eastern Nyainqêntanglha Range of Tibetan Plateau from 1975 to 2013

Maritime-type glaciers in the eastern Nyainqêntanglha Range, located in the southeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau, are an important water source for downstream residents and ecological systems. To better understand the variability of glaciers in this region, we used the band ratio threshold(TM3/TM5 for the Landsat TM /ETM+ and TM4/TM6 for Landsat OLI) to extract glacier outlines in ~1999 and ~2013. After that, we also generated a series of glacier boundaries and monitored glacier variations in the past 40 years with the help of the Chinese Glacier Inventory data(1975) and Landsat TM, ETM+ and OLI data. The total glacier area decreased by 37.69 ± 2.84% from 1975 to 2013. The annual percentage area change(APAC) was ~1.32% a-1 and ~1.29% a-1 in the periods 1975-1999 and 1999-2013, respectively. According to the lag theory, the reaction time is probably about 10 years and we discuss the variations of temperature and precipitation between 1965 and 2011. Temperature and precipitation increased between 1965 and 2011 at a rate of 0.34°C /10 a and 15.4 mm/10 a, respectively. Extensive meteorological data show that the glacier shrinkage rate over the period may be mainly due to increasing air temperature, while the increasing precipitation partly made up for the mass loss of glacier ice resulting from increasing temperature may also lead to the low APAC between 1999 and 2013. The lag theory suggests that glacier shrinkage may accelerate in the next 10 years. Small glaciers were more sensitive to climate change, and there was a normal distribution between glacier area and elevation. Glaciers shrank in all aspects, and south aspects diminished faster than others.