Developing an intermediate-complexity projection model for China's fisheries: A case study of small yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis) in the Haizhou Bay,China

Projection models are commonly used to evaluate the impacts of fishing. However, previously developed projection tools were not suitable for China's fisheries as they are either overly complex and data-demanding or too simple to reflect the realistic management measures. Herein, an intermediate-complexity projection model was developed that could adequately describe fish population dynamics and account for management measures including mesh size limits, summer closure, and spatial closure. A two-patch operating model was outlined for the projection model and applied to the heavily depleted but commercially important small yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis) fishery in the Haizhou Bay, China, as a case study. The model was calibrated to realistically capture the fisheries dynamics with hindcasting. Three simulation scenarios featuring different fishing intensities based on status quo and maximum sustainable yield(MSY) were proposed and evaluated with projections. Stochastic projections were additionally performed to investigate the influence of uncertainty associated with recruitment strengths and the implementation of control targets. It was found that fishing at FMSY level could effectively rebuild the depleted stock biomass, while the stock collapsed rapidly in the status quo scenario. Uncertainty in recruitment and implementation could result in variabilities in management effects; but they did not much alter the management effects of the FMSY scenario. These results indicate that the lack of science-based control targets in fishing mortality or catch limits has hindered the achievement of sustainable fisheries in China. Overall, the presented work highlights that the developed projection model can promote the understanding of the possible consequences of fishing under uncertainty and is applicable to other fisheries in China.     

Detection of a high-confidence quasi-periodic oscillation in radio light curve of the high redshift FSRQ PKS J0805–0111

In this work,we have searched for quasi-periodic oscillations(QPOs)in the 15 GHz light curve of the FSRQ PKS J0805-0111 monitored by the Owens Valley Radio Observatory(OVRO)40 m telescope during the period from 2008 January 9 to 2019 May 9,using the weighted wavelet Z-transform(WWZ)and the Lomb-Scargle Periodogram(LSP)techniques.This is the first time to search for a periodic radio signal in the FSRQ PKS J0805-0111 by these two methods.Both methods consistently reveal a repeating signal with a periodicity of 3.38±0.8 yr(>99.7%confidence level).In order to determine the significance of the periods,the false alarm probability method was applied,and a large number of Monte Carlo simulations were performed.As possible explanations,we discuss a number of scenarios including the thermal instability of thin disks scenario,the spiral jet scenario and the binary supermassive black hole scenario.We expect that the binary black hole scenario,where the QPO is caused by the precession of binary black holes,is the most likely explanation.FSRQ PKS J0805-0111 thus could be a good binary black hole candidate.In the binary black hole scenario,the distance between the primary black hole and the secondary black hole is about 1.71×10¹⁶ cm.     

我国北方区域沙尘天气的时间特征分析

将我国北方沙尘主要影响区划分为3个区（西北区、华北区、东北区）,用网格面积加权计算区域平均的方法,比较了各区沙尘天气的时间演化特征。结果表明：西北部沙尘日数的量级明显多于东北部;沙尘暴的发生有比较明显的日变化特征,各区白天较夜间更易发生沙尘暴,2区（华北区）和3区（东北区）发生沙尘暴初始时刻的峰值出现在14：00,1区（西北区）出现在15：00～16：00;2区和3区出现沙尘天气的极值在4月,而1区在4、5两个月都是极值期;春季是各区沙尘天气的多发期,1区夏季沙尘天气发生的频次也较高;各区的沙尘日数均在20世纪80年代中期前后发生了由多到少的跃变,1区和2区的突变点在1987年,3区在1983年。我国北方3个区沙尘天气的日、月、季节变化有明显的区域特征,其中1区表现得较为独特,2区和3区则比较接近。     

藏北羌塘地区侏罗系中、基性火山岩的发现及意义

经2003-2006年度西藏1∶25万加措、丁固幅区域地质调查,在冈玛错断裂带内首次发现了一套侏罗系喷发-喷溢相中、基性火山岩与石炭系及二叠系呈角度不整合;岩石地球化学特征显示为海相大陆板内向火山弧转换机制下形成的岩浆岩.为进一步研究羌塘地区侏罗纪岩相古地理和中生代构造演化提供了重要资料.     

煤矿井下碎软煤层泡沫钻进技术及应用

针对煤矿井下碎软煤层瓦斯抽采中风压空气钻进施工中排粉能力有限,易造成粉尘污染问题,提出采用煤矿井下泡沫灌注系统及宽翼螺旋钻杆进行高效泡沫钻进的技术方案。通过对钻孔环空间隙流场的数值模拟,研究宽翼螺旋钻杆结构对泡沫钻进高效排粉的影响,确定头数3、槽宽26 mm、螺距110 mm为宽翼螺旋钻杆的优化结构参数。在淮北某矿3204工作面碎软煤层中进行了深度达195 m的本煤层钻孔试验,结果表明,相对于中风压空气钻进工艺,钻进回转阻力降低了42%~48%,表现出高效的排粉效果,可提高煤矿井下碎软煤层钻孔深度和成孔率。该工艺可为类似煤矿井下深钻孔施工提供借鉴。     

白利雅盆地构造地貌解析及鲜水河断裂北西段水平滑移速率

白利雅盆地位于青藏高原东部,鲜水河断裂带北西段炉霍活断层与达曲活断层的斜接部位。通过野外实际考查,结合Google Earth地图发现白利雅盆地发育一系列的构造地貌:断层三角面、坡中槽、断错阶地、废弃河道、裂陷湖和阶地面变形。盆地发育的4级阶地是构造成因。废弃河道是新的断裂活动形成的新冲沟、新河道——达曲,其快速下切,废弃老河道,形成狭长的‘U’型沟谷。鲜水河断裂的北西段炉霍活断层切过T3河流阶地,说明其(白利雅以北)是在大约14.92kaB.P.以后形成的,可能预示着构造应力场的变化和白利雅盆地形成。对盆地4级阶地(T1,T2,T3和T4)的河流沉积物光释光(OSL)测年结果分别是 1.06±0.06kaB.P.,1.83±0.06kaB.P.,14.92±0.76kaB.P.和 42.48±2.35kaB.P.,代表了相应阶地的沉积年龄。这些结果与阶地前缘陡坎断错的距离计算显示,从42.48kaB.P.和14.92kaB.P.以来,断层走向平均移动速率分别为3.73mm/a和0.85mm/a,显示从中更新世晚期以来,鲜水河断裂带炉霍活断层水平滑移有减慢的趋势。在42.48~14.92kaB.P.,14.92~1.83kaB.P.和1.83~1.06kaB.P.,相邻阶地垂向隆升或河流下切的速率分别为0.14mm/a(T4~T3),4.66mm/a(T3~T2)和5.19mm/a(T2~T1),显示从中更新世晚期以来,阶地垂直隆升或河流下切有加快的趋势。     

地震灾害风险评估及减灾策略研究——以贵州罗甸县为例

为探究贵州省地震灾害风险薄弱环节,减轻地震灾害风险,以贵州省罗甸县为示范,采用地震危险性概率分析方法对各乡镇进行危险性分析,开展地震灾害承灾体现场抽样调查,通过层次分析法和问卷调查的方式,首次构建乡镇级别的地震灾害风险和减灾能力指标体系,评估各乡镇地震灾害综合指数和程度,计算各乡镇地震灾害风险指数,确定红水河镇为高风险区、罗悃镇为中风险区、木引等7个乡镇为低风险区,并从建筑物设防、地震地质灾害及水库地震等角度剖析罗甸县地震灾害特点,从农村危房改造、移民搬迁、地质灾害防护及交通等方面提出减小地震灾害风险的建议。     

Modelling and experimental study of coupled exchange of p,p′‐DDE and colloids in a flume simulated stream–streambed system

Stream–subsurface exchange plays a significant role in the fate and transport of contaminants in streams. It has been modelled explicitly by considering fundamental processes such as hydraulic exchange, colloid filtration, and contaminant interactions with streambed sediments and colloids. The models have been successfully applied to simulate the transport of inorganic metals and nutrients. In this study, laboratory experiments were conducted in a recirculating flume to investigate the exchange of a hydrophobic organic contaminant, p,p′‐dichloro‐diphenyl‐dichloroethane (DDE), between a stream and a quartz sand bed. A previously developed process‐based multiphase exchange model was modified by accounting for the p,p′‐DDE kinetic adsorption to and desorption from the bed sediments/colloids and was applied to interpret the experimental results. Model input parameters were obtained by conducting independent small‐scale batch experiments. Results indicate that the immobilization of p,p′‐DDE in the quartz sand bed can occur under representative natural stream conditions. The observed p,p′‐DDE exchange was successfully simulated by the process‐based model. The model sensitivity analysis results show that the exchange of p,p′‐DDE can be sensitive to either the sediment sorption/desorption parameters or colloidal parameters depending on the experimental conditions tested. For the experimental conditions employed here, the effect of colloids on contaminant transport is expected to be minimal, and the stream–subsurface exchange of p,p′‐DDE is dominated by the interaction of p,p′‐DDE with bed sediment. The work presented here contributes to a better mechanistic understanding of the complex transport process that hydrophobic organic contaminants undergo in natural streams and to the development of reliable, predictive models for the assessment of impacted streams. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new standardized Palmer drought index for hydro‐meteorological use

Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.