非平稳标准化降水蒸散指数构建及中国未来干旱时空格局

旱灾是一种致灾因子与成害机理均非常复杂的自然灾害,也是目前对其检测与风险防御最为困难的自然灾害种类之一。随着全球气候变化,干旱的变化逐渐趋于非平稳化,水文气象序列的非平稳性已有广泛研究,但在干旱检测指标中却鲜有考虑。基于标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）和非平稳性理论,构建非平稳性标准化降水蒸散指数（NSPEI）并进行适用性评价,利用NSPEI评估未来不同排放情景下中国气象干旱时空格局演变规律。结果表明：① 非平稳性站点集中在东北平原、黄淮海平原、长三角地区、青藏高原及周边区域,NSPEI拟合最优的站点占中国气象站点的88%（2177个站点）。② SPEI对温度较为敏感,在评估未来干旱变化时会高估干旱强度和持续时间性,而NSPEI能够克服这一弱点,较SPEI可更好的检测中国气象干旱,且能很好的刻画中国未来干旱变化。③ 低、高排放情景下中国北方干旱加剧,南方呈湿润化趋势;中排放情景下中国北方湿润化趋势明显,而中国南方则呈干旱化。基于NSPEI干旱检测结果,中高排放情景下中国未来极端干湿历时与发生频率均呈增加趋势。     

ARIMA-LSTM组合模型在基于SPI干旱预测中的应用——以青海省为例

开展干旱预测是有效应对干旱风险的前提基础。利用1958—2017年青海省38个气象站点逐日降水量数据计算多尺度标准化降水指数（SPI）,并建立了SPI序列自回归移动平均模型（ARIMA）、长短时记忆神经网络模型（LSTM）和基于二者优点提出的ARIMA-LSTM组合模型;对模型参数进行率定和验证后,利用所建立的模型,以西宁站点为例,对多尺度SPI值进行预测,借助均方根误差（RMSE）、平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）和决定系数R²对所有预测模型的有效性进行判定。结果表明：ARIMA-LSTM组合模型在SPI1和SPI12的RMSE值分别为0.159 7和0.181 0,均低于ARIMA模型的1.265 4和0.293 3,说明ARIMA模型与ARIMA-LSTM组合模型对SPI的预测精度都与时间尺度有关,ARIMA模型的预测精度随着时间尺度的增加而逐渐提高;结合GIS并利用实测数据与模型的预测数据相比较说明ARIMA-LSTM组合模型相比于单一ARIMA模型的预测精度更高,且能够很好拟合不同时间尺度的SPI值。     

社区生活圈的新时间地理学研究框架

社区生活圈从居民日常活动及行为视角考察城市社区,是城市地理学和城市相关学科的研究前沿,也是中国国土空间规划体系创新的重要组成部分,以及中国城市社会可持续发展的重要抓手。伴随着流动性和信息化的不断深入,社区生活圈的主体日益多元化、社区活动和居民时空行为日益多样化、社区空间的功能与意义日益丰富化,亟需城市地理学的研究创新与实践引导。时间地理学是理解人与环境关系的社会—技术—生态综合方法,为早期基于时空行为与生活空间的社区生活圈研究提供了重要基础。新时间地理学重视家庭及其他组织企划的交互与时空组合,可为社区生活圈内个体—家庭—社区之间的复杂互动关系研究、时空行为的社会文化制约与多情境分析及模拟提供重要支撑。论文基于新时间地理学方法,从理论、方法和实证3个维度提出社区生活圈的新时间地理学研究框架,具体包括构建社区生活圈的时空行为理论,揭示社区生活圈的时空间结构;创新社区生活圈的时空行为分析和模拟方法;从社区生活圈时空行为优化、社区交往生活圈、社区安全生活圈等方面创新中国城市规划与管理等研究内容。     

全球粮食安全格局的时空演化

Food security is the primary prerequisite for achieving other Millennium Development Goals(MDGs).Given that the MDG of“halving the proportion of hungers by 2015”was not realized as scheduled,it will be more pressing and challenging to reach the goal of zero hunger by 2030.So there is high urgency to find the pattern and mechanism of global food security from the perspective of spatio-temporal evolution.In this paper,based on the analysis of database by using a multi-index evaluation method and radar map area model,the global food security level for 172 countries from 2000 to 2014 were assessed;and then spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted to depict the spatial patterns and changing characteristics of global food security;then,multi-nonlinear regression methods were employed to identify the factors affecting the food security patterns.The results show:1)The global food security pattern can be summarized as“high-high aggregation,low-low aggregation”.The most secure countries are mainly distributed in Western Europe,North America,Oceania and parts of East Asia.The least secure countries are mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa,South Asia and West Asia,and parts of Southeast Asia.2)Europe and sub-Saharan Africa are hot and cold spots of the global food security pattern respectively,while in non-aggregation areas,Haiti,North Korea,Tajikistan and Afghanistan have long-historical food insecurity problems.3)The pattern of global food security is generally stable,but the internal fluctuations in the extremely insecure groups were significant.The countries with the highest food insecurity are also the countries with the most fluctuated levels of food security.4)The annual average temperature,per capita GDP,proportion of people accessible to clean water,political stability and non-violence levels are the main factors influencing the global food security pattern.Research shows that the status of global food security has improved since the year 2000,yet there are still many challenges such as unstable global food security and acute regional food security issues.It will be difficult to understand these differences from a single factor,especially the annual average temperature and annual precipitation.The abnormal performance of the above factors indicates that appropriate natural conditions alone do not absolutely guarantee food security,while the levels of agricultural development,the purchasing power of residents,regional accessibility,as well as political and economic stability have more direct influence.     

Changes in agricultural virtual water in Central Asia, 1992–2016

Journal of Geographical Sciences - In recent years, flows of many rivers and lakes have become reduced in arid and semi-arid regions around the world. The most typical examples of this phenomenon...     

Cryosphere evapotranspiration in the Tibetan Plateau: A review

Land surface actual evapotranspiration is an important process that influences the Earth's energy and water cycles and determines the water and heat transfer in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system. Meanwhile, the cryosphere's hydrological process is receiving extensive attention, and its water problem needs to be understood from multiple perspectives. As the main part of the Chinese cryosphere, the Tibetan Plateau faces significant climate and environmental change. There are active interaction and pronounced feedback between the environment and ET_a in the cryosphere. This article mainly focuses on the research progress of ET_a in the Tibetan Plateau. It first reviews the ET_a process, characteristics, and impact factors of typical underlying surfaces in the Tibetan Plateau (alpine meadows, alpine steppes, alpine wetlands, alpine forests, lakes). Then it compares the temporal and spatial variations of ET_a at different scales. In addition, considering the current greening of cryosphere vegetation due to climate change, it discusses the relationship between vegetation greening and transpiration to help clarify how vegetation activities are related to the regional water cycle and surface energy budget.     

无人机在重大地质灾害应急调查中的应用

传统的地质灾害应急调查受限于地形、天气等外界条件,不能快速全面地获取灾害的详细信息,而无人机具有灵活性强、时效性高和不受复杂地形影响等特点,在地质灾害应急调查中有独特的优势。本文以“6·24”新磨村滑坡和“10·11”白格滑坡为例,阐述了无人机数据获取及处理流程,重点介绍了无人机获取的数字地形产品在地质灾害精确描述、定性及定量分析中的应用。结果表明：无人机摄影测量技术为重大地质灾害应急调查提供了更加科学高效的现场影像采集和遥感成果处理及应用方案,为应急救灾工作的顺利实施及分析研判提供了重要数据支撑,科学有效地保证了现场施工救援人员的安全。     

移动测量技术在城市绿化普查中的应用

在新时代的城市建设中,绿化建设对于美化城市面貌和提高市民居住舒适度显得十分重要,那么城市绿化普查工作则成为绿化建设工作中的重要一环。为了改进传统绿化普查工作,本文提供一整套基于移动测量技术的城市绿化普查方案,搭配自主研发的GIS采集软件和实景三维管理平台,采集绿化信息的效率和精度显著提高,更可以优化城市绿化管理方法。     

ASTER GDEM V2的南极冰川高程误差校正及精度分析

ASTER GDEM V2是研究南极冰盖表面的一种重要DEM数据源。由于南极冰雪区反射率高且缺乏地形特征,导致ASTER GDEM V2存在大量的坑、隆起等噪声,难以直接用于南极地形分析。本文以ICESat/GLAS激光点高程数据作为参考,采用修正等高线法对南极伯德（Byrd）冰川ASTER GDEM V2进行了误差校正,并将其与ICESat-1 DEM的垂直精度进行了对比分析。结果表明：ASTER GDEM V2的RMSE由校正前的26.56 m下降到校正后的18.77 m,远低于ICESat-1 DEM的RMSE（121.24 m）;校正后的ASTER GDEM V2高程精度受坡度影响较小,不存在明显的系统误差,而ICESat-1 DEM的高程精度受坡度的影响较大。本研究进一步通过地形剖面分析得到：校正前的ASTER GDEM V2噪声主要分布于高程较低、地形平坦的区域,通过修正等高线的方法可以有效去除这些噪声,去除噪声后的ASTER GDEM V2可作为研究伯德冰川理想的DEM数据源。     

基于住房需求意愿的广州市中产阶层住房区位选择

以2014年广州市中产阶层聚居区24个街道、50个社区进行的问卷调查和深度访谈资料为数据源,从住房需求意愿与区位选择方面分析了广州中产阶层住房选择,并运用多元Logistic回归分析法对其影响因素进行研究。研究发现：1）广州市中产阶层住房区位选择表现出明显的“向中心城区”性;2）现居住现状（人均住房面积、现小区区位、现小区建成年代、现居住时间）、家庭生命周期（年龄、家庭规模、子女数量）和经济水平（家庭年总收入、个人年总收入、私家车拥有量）等因素对中产阶层住房需求意愿具有显著影响;3）家庭生命周期（年龄、家庭规模）、个体因素（教育程度、户籍地）等要素对中产阶层住房区位选择具有显著影响。4）制度因素、区位因素和个体因素共同影响着广州市中产阶层住房区位选择。