上海地区雨水酸度与天气背景的关系

1981—1983年在上海地区11个观测站进行了雨水pH值观测,取到资料2448份.从资料分析得到:(1)雨水pH值与天气背景有关,静止锋天气影响时,酸雨出现几率达44.5％,雨水较酸;暖锋天气时,酸雨出现几率仅9％.(2)台风、高压边缘天气影响下,酸雨的形成主要是受局地污染源的影响;但静止锋、冷锋、低压系统天气时,酸雨的形成不仅受局地污染源的影响,而且还可能受随气流输送来的外来污染物的影响.     

应用通量方差法估算戈壁绿洲下垫面湍流通量的研究

利用“绿洲系统能量与水分循环过程观测试验” 2005年绿洲、戈壁点的观测资料, 分析与讨论了温度、水汽的归一化标准差随稳定度变化的通量方差关系, 应用通量方差法对感热、 潜热通量进行了计算, 并同涡动相关系统的观测结果进行了比较。不稳定条件下, 戈壁点温度归一化标准差随稳定度变化的通量方差关系优于下垫面非均匀性更强的绿洲点, 绿洲点水汽的归一化标准差随稳定度变化的通量方差关系较温度量表现得更好。对同一站点, 归一化温度标准差的通量方差关系并不总是优于水汽的通量方差关系, 其取决于该站点的温度以及水汽的源汇分布情况; 通量方差法对两个站点的感热、 潜热通量均有较好的再现, 但戈壁点感热通量的计算效果优于非均匀性更强的绿洲点。应用通量方差法对潜热通量计算时若采用直接观测的感热通量, 则潜热通量的计算效果具有一定程度的改善。     

Evaluation of a Photosynthesis-Based Canopy Resistance Formulation in the Noah Land-Surface Model

Accurately representing complex land-surface processes balancing complexity and realism remains one challenge that the weather modelling community is facing nowadays. In this study, a photosynthesis-based Gas-exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) is integrated into the Noah land-surface model replacing the traditional Jarvis scheme for estimating the canopy resistance and transpiration. Using 18-month simulations from the High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS), the impact of the photosynthesis-based approach on the simulated canopy resistance, surface heat fluxes, soil moisture, and soil temperature over different vegetation types is evaluated using data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site, Oklahoma Mesonet, 2002 International H₂O Project (IHOP_2002), and three Ameriflux sites. Incorporation of GEM into Noah improves the surface energy fluxes as well as the associated diurnal cycle of soil moisture and soil temperature during both wet and dry periods. An analysis of midday, average canopy resistance shows similar day-to-day trends in the model fields as seen in observed patterns. Bias and standard deviation analyses for soil temperature and surface fluxes show that GEM responds somewhat better than the Jarvis scheme, mainly because the Jarvis approach relies on a parametrised minimum canopy resistance and meteorological variables such as air temperature and incident radiation. The analyses suggest that adding a photosynthesis-based transpiration scheme such as GEM improves the ability of the land-data assimilation system to simulate evaporation and transpiration under a range of soil and vegetation conditions.     

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.     

阿尔山地区积雪变化特征

选取阿尔山气象站1981—2015年冷季(10月—次年4月)气象资料,利用滑动平均、线性倾向估计和Mann-Kendall等方法,对年最大积雪深度、积雪日数、气温和降水量进行分析。结果表明,阿尔山地区年最大积雪深度主要发生在1月至3月,其中2月份概率最大,达50%;34 a内最大积雪深度呈上升趋势(2.77 cm/10a),年平均增加0.98%,且年最大积雪深度在1998年发生了突变,即在1998年之前增长缓慢,在2000年以后上升趋势显著。积雪日数的统计分析表明,初始积雪日数和有效积雪日数呈现略微减少趋势,而稳定积雪日数有微弱的增加趋势;通常初始积雪日数比有效积雪日数大30天左右。年最大积雪深度与稳定积雪时期的降水量、积雪日数、日照时数有显著的相关性,相关系数分别为0.647、0.515、0.584,但与稳定积雪时期的气温没有明显的相关性。在全球变暖的大环境下,积雪深度随着降水量和日照时数的增加而增加,且积雪深度受降水量的影响大于日照时数的影响。     

气溶胶对我国中东部地区秋季降水的影响

通过分析近50年来中国中东部地区降水资料发现,秋季降水与其他季节相比有明显减少趋势(每10年下降约54.3 mm),尤其自1980年代以来呈直线下降趋势(每10年降水减少5.6%)。从降水形成三个基本条件(水汽输送条件、稳定度条件、云微物理条件)出发,探究秋季降水减小的原因。结果表明,大气稳定度(对流抑制能(convective inhibition,CIN)以28.67(J/kg)/(10年)的速率增加,对流有效位能(convective available potential energy,CAPE)以12.81(J/kg)/(10年)的速率减小以及云微物理性质的变化(云滴有效粒子尺度减小)是导致秋季降水减少的直接原因,而这两个因素的变化与近20多年来气溶胶的大量增多有着非常密切的关系。因此,由空气污染造成的气溶胶浓度的增加可以作为导致中国中东部地区秋季降水减少的其中一个重要原因。由于秋季天气系统较稳定,主要受到大尺度系统影响,动力作用影响大于热力作用,所以减少了复杂中小天气系统和热力作用对降水的影响,故而更加突显出气溶胶对秋季降水的影响。     

Influence of leaf water potential on diurnal changes in CO2 and water vapour fluxes

Mass and energy fluxes between the atmosphere and vegetation are driven by meteorological variables, and controlled by plant water status, which may change more markedly diurnally than soil water. We tested the hypothesis that integration of dynamic changes in leaf water potential may improve the simulation of CO₂ and water fluxes over a wheat canopy. Simulation of leaf water potential was integrated into a comprehensive model (the ChinaAgrosys) of heat, water and CO₂ fluxes and crop growth. Photosynthesis from individual leaves was integrated to the canopy by taking into consideration the attenuation of radiation when penetrating the canopy. Transpiration was calculated with the Shuttleworth-Wallace model in which canopy resistance was taken as a link between energy balance and physiological regulation. A revised version of the Ball-Woodrow-Berry stomatal model was applied to produce a new canopy resistance model, which was validated against measured CO₂ and water vapour fluxes over winter wheat fields in Yucheng (36°57′ N, 116°36′ E, 28 m above sea level) in the North China Plain during 1997, 2001 and 2004. Leaf water potential played an important role in causing stomatal conductance to fall at midday, which caused diurnal changes in photosynthesis and transpiration. Changes in soil water potential were less important. Inclusion of the dynamics of leaf water potential can improve the precision of the simulation of CO₂ and water vapour fluxes, especially in the afternoon under water stress conditions.     

DLP大屏幕投影墙显示系统在山西气象业务工作中的应用

DLP（Digital Light Processor）大屏幕投影墙显示系统是集多种信息接收处理显示、多功能平台综合鼹示与控制于一体的全数字多用途高科技显示系统,在气象部门天气预报会商和会议系统中已普遍使用？奉文拟对DLP的技术特点和优势进行分析,结合山西省气象台业务现状和发展需求,对DLP大屏幕显示系统在业务一体化会商室业务平台中的设计方案及应用情况进行探讨,对应用DLP大屏幕显示系统后的远景功用和效益进行分析,旨在为气象DLP大屏幕项目建设提供前期研究支持。