气候变化背景下我国周边海域热带气旋灾害风险评估与区划

针对气候变化背景下热带气旋的演变趋势与灾害风险,探讨了我国周边海域热带气旋强度及频数的气候变化特征,从风险分析的角度提出了热带气旋灾害风险概念框架,基于风险评价指数法初步构建了风险评估的指标体系和数学模型,应用GIS技术实现了我国周边海域热带气旋灾害风险的等级区划。结果显示,在气候变化背景下,我国周边海域热带气旋频数和平均强度在近60年来呈现弱的下降趋势,但近10年来,台风及以上级别热带气旋频数和强度极值明显增加;热带气旋灾害高风险区位于南海北部和菲律宾海东部洋面。      

基于对流参数的洋口港地区雷暴预报方法研究

文章分析了洋口港地区2001-2009年4-9月1645个样本22种对流参数与雷暴事件的相关性以及这些参数的统计特征。结果表明,各对流参数月际分布差异较大,各参数与雷暴事件相关系数也不同。因而选择沙氏指数SI、全总指数TT、杰弗逊指数JI、抬升凝结高度温度tcl_t、上下层温差dt_58、大气可降水量Pw、风暴强度指数SSI等7个对于雷暴活动具有较好相关性的因子,并考虑到4-9月月际分布差异,使用不同月份Pw、SI、TT、JI的不同阈值作为排空因子,不’同月份SSI、tcl_t、dt_58的不同阈值作为预报因子,使用二级逻辑回归法建立排空方程和预报方程,同时对所建立各月预报方程进行了检验和拟合结果分析,并对2010年4-9月样本进行试报,预报效果较好。     

黑龙江省东部饶河杂岩的就位时代与东北东部中生代构造演化

黑龙江省东部饶河杂岩由含放射虫深海沉积岩以及镁铁质的熔岩和侵入岩组成,并被视为大洋壳的残片。该杂岩被晚期蛤蚂河和太平村花岗岩侵入。锆石U-Pb年龄结果表明,上述两花岗岩岩体均形成于早白垩世,其中蛤蚂河岩体形成于131、124和～115Ma三个阶段,太平村岩体形成于111～114Ma左右。饶河杂岩中辉长岩的锆石U-Pb年龄为166±1Ma,深海沉积岩中最晚出现的放射虫的时代为160～150Ma,显示饶河杂岩的就位应发生在150～131Ma的晚侏罗世—早白垩世,古地磁资料显示本区自晚三叠世—侏罗纪有明显的从低纬度向高纬度的北移现象：从而表明在晚侏罗世—早白垩世及以前该区存在太平洋板块的俯冲-走滑作用。岩石学研究显示,两花岗岩岩体中均存在岩浆结晶成因的堇青石,并具有过铝质花岗岩的特点,为典型的来源于沉积岩部分熔融形成的S型花岗岩。Hf同位素测定发现,这些花岗岩中的锆石具有较高的~(176) Hf/~(177)Hf同位素比值和较正的ε_(Hf)(t)值,以长英质地壳为源岩的Hf同位素模式年龄为500～780Ma,说明其源岩应为新元古代—显生宙新增生的地壳物质,从而反映在晚侏罗世—早白垩世以前本区曾发生过显著的地壳抬升与风化剥蚀。     

城市生态地球化学评价的盖子模型

分析了城市生态地球化学评价的特点。建立了城市生态地球化学评价的盖子模型。按照盖子的阻隔效应,将城市生态地球化学评价分为盖上循环、盖下库内循环和盖子网眼及边缘的库内外开放性循环三大部分内容。城市化进程就是盖子的扩张与修补过程。按盖子模型进行的城市生态地球化学评价有利于预测和防治城市生态地球化学灾害,为城市规划、建设和管理服务。     

Analysis of the Microphysical Properties of a Stratiform Rain Event Using an L-Band Profiler Radar

This paper investigates spatial and temporal distributions of the microphysical properties of precipitating stratiform clouds based on Doppler spectra of rain particles observed by an L-band profiler radar.The retrieval of raindrop size distributions（RSDs） is accomplished through eliminating vertical air motion and isolating the terminal fall velocity of raindrops in the observed Doppler velocity spectrum.The microphysical properties of raindrops in a broad stratiform region with weak convective cells are studied using data collected from a 1320-MHz wind profiler radar in Huayin,Shaanxi Province on 14 May 2009.RSDs and gamma function parameters are retrieved at altitudes between 700 and 3000 m above the surface,below a melting layer.It is found that the altitude of the maximum number of raindrops was closely related to the surface rain rate.The maximum number of large drops was observed at lower altitudes earlier in the precipitation event but at higher altitudes in later periods,suggesting decreases in the numbers of large and medium size raindrops.These decreases may have been caused by the breakup of larger drops and evaporation of smaller drops as they fell.The number of medium size drops decreased with increasing altitude.The relationship between reflectivity and liquid water content during this precipitation event was Z = 1.69×10~4M~（1.5）,and the relationship between reflectivity and rain intensity was Z = 256I~（1.4）.     

CLDASSD: Reconstructing Fine Textures of the Temperature Field Using Super-Resolution Technology

Before 2008,the number of surface observation stations in China was small.Thus,the surface observation data were too sparse to effectively support the High-resolution China Meteorological Administration’s Land Assimilation System(HRCLDAS)which ultimately inhibited the output of high-resolution and high-quality gridded products.This paper proposes a statistical downscaling model based on a deep learning algorithm in super-resolution to research the above problem.Specifically,we take temperature as an example.The model is used to downscale the 0.0625°×0.0625°,2-m temperature data from the China Meteorological Administration’s Land Data Assimilation System(CLDAS)to 0.01°×0.01°,named CLDASSD.We performed quality control on the paired data from CLDAS and HRCLDAS,using data from 2018 and 2019.CLDASSD was trained on the data from 31 March 2018 to 28 February 2019,and then tested with the remaining data.Finally,extensive experiments were conducted in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region which features complex and diverse geomorphology.Taking the HRCLDAS product and surface observation data as the"true values"and comparing them with the results of bilinear interpolation,especially in complex terrain such as mountains,the root mean square error(RMSE)of the CLDASSD output can be reduced by approximately 0.1℃,and its structural similarity(SSIM)was approximately 0.2 higher.CLDASSD can estimate detailed textures,in terms of spatial distribution,with greater accuracy than bilinear interpolation and other sub-models and can perform the expected downscaling tasks.     

基于能见度及AOD数据的北京市PM2.5浓度的反演

选择北京市为研究地区,对2014～2017年AERONET（Aerosol Robotic Network）提供的CE-318太阳光度计440 nm波段反演的气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）进行风速订正,对订正后 AOD 日均数据与同期地面监测站PM2.5日均浓度数据做季节相关性分析并建立回归模型。又引入能见度因子并利用广义差分法构建2015～2017年北京市AOD与PM2.5浓度、能见度的三元回归模型,最后将2014年数据分为污染日和非污染日分别进行模型检验。结果表明:AOD与PM2.5浓度存在显著的线性正相关性,且存在季节性差异,夏季相关性最强、秋季次之、春季和冬季最低。引入能见度因子并消除自相关后,四季的模型相对误差均显著减小,模型拟合优度显著提高。检验结果为四季整体的平均相对误差在21%～31%范围内,与前人的结果相比拟合曲线的准确性得到了明显地提高。且模型对低PM2.5浓度日的模拟效果较好,对于高PM2.5浓度日的模拟效果较差。本研究对构建北京地区PM2.5浓度长期的历史数据具有重要的科学意义。     

A method to estimate concentrations of surface-level particulate matter using satellite-based aerosol optical thickness

We propose a new method to estimate surface-level particulate matter(PM)concentrations by using satellite-retrieved Aerosol Optical Thickness(AOT).This method considers the distribution and variation of Planetary Boundary Layer(PBL)height and relative humidity(RH)at the regional scale.The method estimates surface-level particulate matter concentrations using the data simulated by an atmospheric boundary layer model RAMS and satellite-retrieved AOT.By incorporation MODIS AOT,PBL height and RH simulated by RAMS,this method is applied to estimate the surface-level PM 2.5 concentrations in North China region.The result is evaluated by using 16 ground-based observations deployed in the research region,and the result shows a good agreement between estimated PM 2.5 concentrations and observations,and the coefficient of determination R2 is 0.61 between the estimated PM 2.5 concentrations and the observations.In addition,surface-level PM 2.5 concentrations are also estimated by using MODIS AOT,ground-based LIDAR observations and RH measurements.A comparison between the two estimated PM 2.5 concentrations shows that the new method proposed in this paper is better than the traditional method.The coefficient of determination R2 is improved from 0.32 to 0.62.     

广西米场花岗岩及其暗色微粒包体的地球化学特征和成因分析

本文对博白-岑溪断裂带西南段的米场黑云母花岗岩体及其包体进行了岩石学和地球化学研究.结果表明,米场黑云母花岗岩体暗色包体广泛分布,暗色包体中发育有碱性长石斑晶、暗色镶边的眼球状石英、针状磷灰石和包裹有内环带的斜长石等.寄主岩及暗色包体两者都为准铝质、高钾钙碱性系列岩石,其主要氧化物含量在Harker图解中多呈直线变异趋...     

云南马厂箐多金属矿床地质地球化学特征及成矿机制探讨

云南马厂箐多金属矿床是金沙江-哀牢山构造带上与喜马拉雅期富碱斑岩有关的Cu、Mo、Au 成矿的典型代表之一。矿体（脉）的产出与富碱斑岩体（脉）在空间上共存、时间上相近或稍晚、成因上密切相关, 蚀变和成矿分带明显。岩体内产出斑岩型Mo、Cu 矿化, 以Mo 矿化为主; 岩体与围岩接触带产出接触交代型Cu、Mo、Au、Fe 矿化, 以Cu、Fe 矿化为主, Au 矿化较弱; 而距接触带稍远的围岩地层中则产出Au、Pb、Zn 矿化。流体包裹体研究表明, 从马厂箐矿段→乱硐山矿段→人头箐-金厂箐矿段, 流体包裹体具有相态组合逐渐简单, 温度、盐度逐渐降低, 成矿压力逐渐减小, 成矿深度逐渐变浅的趋势。同位素地球化学研究表明, 马厂箐Cu、Mo、Au 多金属矿属于同一个岩浆和流体成矿系统在不同物理化学条件下的产物, 表现出随流体成矿作用的进行, 矿化由斑岩体内部向接触带和围岩地层推进, 富碱岩浆和地幔流体作用逐渐减弱, 而围岩地层的影响则逐渐增强, 流体性质由幔源向壳幔混合直至壳源为主演化。最后探讨了马厂箐Cu、Mo、Au 多金属矿的成矿机制, 并初步预测该矿床具有较好的深部成矿潜力。