Potential changes in precipitation extremes in July–August over China in response to CO 2 doubling are analyzed based on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and the 1% per year CO 2 increase experiment (to doubling) (1pctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). Evaluation of the models’ performance in simulating the mean state shows that the majority of models fairly reproduce the broad spatial pattern of observed precipitation. However, all the models underestimate extreme precipitation by ～50%. The spread among the models over the Tibetan Plateau is ～2–3 times larger than that over the other areas. Models with higher resolution generally perform better than those with lower resolutions in terms of spatial pattern and precipitation amount. Under the 1pctto2x scenario, the ratio between the absolute value of MME extreme precipitation change and model spread is larger than that of total precipitation, indicating a relatively robust change of extremes. The change of extreme precipitation is more homogeneous than the total precipitation. Analysis on the output of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) indicates that the spatially consistent increase of surface temperature and water vapor content contribute to the large increase of extreme precipitation over contiguous China, which follows the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. Whereas, the meridionally tri-polar pattern of mean precipitation change over eastern China is dominated by the change of water vapor convergence, which is determined by the response of monsoon circulation to global warming. 相似文献
Sun-photometer measurements at Hefei, an urban site located in central East China, were examined to investigate the variations of aerosol loading and optical properties. It is found that aerosol optical thickness (AOT) keeps higher in winter/spring and gets relatively lower in summer/autumn. The large AOT in winter is caused by anthropogenic sulfate/nitrate aerosols, while in spring dust particles elevate the background aerosol loading and the excessive fine-mode particles eventually lead to severe pollution. There is a dramatic decline of AOT during summer, with monthly averaged AOT reaching the maximum in June and soon the minimum in August. Meanwhile, aerosol size decreases consistently and single scattering albedo (SSA) reaches its minimum in July. During summertime large-sized particles play a key role to change the air from clean to mild-pollution situation, while the presence of massive small-sized particles makes the air being even more polluted. These complicated summer patterns are possibly related to the three key processes that are active in the high temperature/humidity environment concentrating on sulfate/nitrate aerosols, i.e., gas-to-particle transformation, hygroscopic growth, and wet scavenging. Regardless of season, the increase of SSA with increasing AOT occurs across the visible and near-infrared bands, suggesting the dominant negative/cooling effect with the elevated aerosol loading. The SSA spectra under varying AOT monotonically decrease with wavelength. The relatively large slope arises in summer, reinforcing the dominance of sulfate/nitrate aerosols that induce severe pollution in summer season around this city. 相似文献
To understand the impacts of large-scale circulation during the evolution of El Niño cycle on tropical cyclones (TC) is important and useful for TC forecast. Based on best-track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction for the period 1975–2014, we investigated the influences of two types of El Niño, the eastern Pacific El Niño (EP-El Niño) and central Pacific El Niño (CP-El Niño), on global TC genesis. We also examined how various environmental factors contribute to these influences using a modified genesis potential index (MGPI). The composites reproduced for two types of El Niño, from their developing to decaying phases, were able to qualitatively replicate observed cyclogenesis in several basins except for the Arabian Sea. Certain factors of MGPI with more influence than others in various regions are identified. Over the western North Pacific, five variables were all important in the two El Niño types during developing summer (July–August–September) and fall (October–November–December), and decaying spring (April–May–June) and summer. In the eastern Pacific, vertical shear and relative vorticity are the crucial factors for the two types of El Niño during developing and decaying summers. In the Atlantic, vertical shear, potential intensity and relative humidity are important for the opposite variation of EP- and CP-El Niños during decaying summers. In the Southern Hemisphere, the five variables have varying contributions to TC genesis variation during peak season (January–February–March) for the two types of El Niño. In the Bay of Bengal, relative vorticity, humidity and omega may be responsible for clearly reduced TC genesis during developing fall for the two types and slightly suppressed TC cyclogenesis during EP-El Niño decaying spring. In the Arabian Sea, the EP-El Niño generates a slightly positive anomaly of TC genesis during developing falls and decaying springs, but the MGPI failed to capture this variation.
Typhoon Durian (2001),which formed over the South China Sea (SCS),was simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The genesis of typhoon Durian which formed in the monsoon trough was reproduced by numerical simulations. The simulated results agree reasonably well with observations. Two numerical experiments in which the sea surface temperature (SST) was either decreased or increased were performed to investigate the impact of the SST on the genesis of the ty-phoon. When the SST was decreased by 5℃ uniformly for all grids in the model,the winds calculated became divergent in the lower troposphere and convergent in the upper troposphere,creating conditions in which the amount of total latent heat release (TLHR) was low and the tropical cyclone (TC) could not be formed. This simulation shows the importance of the convergence in the lower tropo-sphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere for the genesis of the initial vortex. When the SST was increased by 1℃ uni-formly for all grids,a stronger typhoon was generated in the results with an increase of about 10 m s-1 in the maximum surface wind speed. Only minor differences in intensity were noted during the first 54 h in the simulation with the warmer SST,but apparent dif-ferences in intensity occurred after 54 h when the vortex began to strengthen to typhoon strength. This experiment shows that warmer SST will speed the strengthening from tropical storm strength to typhoon strength and increase the maximum intensity reached,while only minor impact can be seen during the earlier stage of genesis before the TC reaches the tropical storm strength. The results sug-gest that the amount of TLHR may be the dominant factor in determining the formation and the intensification of the TC. 相似文献
