查表法设计华北地区最大震级时间序列模糊预测系统

本文介绍了查表法设计模糊系统(FSLE)的方法与原理,然后基于该方法建立了华北地区及主要地震带最大震级时间序列的预测模型,并进行了预测内符检验。分析认为,该方法的建模与预测精度较高,模型外推泛化能力较强,原理简单直观,计算结果稳健。因此,FSLE方法可作为地震趋势建模与预测分析工作中的一种有效工具。     

气象科技论文中量的规范表达

结合气象科学特点,依据国家标准和规定,介绍气象科技论文中量名称和量符号的规范表达形式及需注意的问题,为基层气象科技人员撰写科技论文提供帮助。     

广西桂林庙头上泥盆统融县组中的灰岩脉和角砾灰岩体及其成因

广西桂林庙头上泥盆统融县组台地边缘相具鸟眼或溶孔砂屑生屑藻粘结灰岩中发育了大量灰岩脉，灰岩脉呈岩墙状近直立地切过围岩，露头上可见连续垂直延伸长度达十余米，脉内仍是上泥盆统融县组灰岩组分，仅比围岩稍晚或同时代的：角砾状退白云石化藻粘结灰岩、角砾状藻粘结灰岩（快速堆积，角砾多数来自围岩）、细鲕粒颗粒灰岩、含钙球砂屑粒泥灰岩、藻砂屑腹足泥粒灰岩（正常沉积或液化变形软沉积流，均高于围岩层位）及大量栉壳状方解石脉（张性环境）等，灰岩脉内可见软沉积物变形痕迹及液化脉（地震液化），晚期灰岩脉可穿插早期灰岩脉；在其西侧同层位共生有一套楔状（地裂缝）、不规则状角砾灰岩体，角砾棱角状，大小不等，成分是灰色中厚层角砾状藻粘结灰岩、含钙球砂屑粒泥灰岩等。笔者等注意到灰岩脉均出露在北东向正断层的下盘（东侧），而角砾灰岩体则均出露在该断层的上盘（西侧），事实上，灰岩脉及角砾灰岩体分布走向与北东向断层走向一致，角砾灰岩体中的角砾成分显示其来自较灰岩脉围岩稍高层位，与灰岩脉内充填岩性相近，因此，是该断层控制了当时的沉积，此断层是晚泥盆世台地边缘同沉积正断层；灰岩脉是与断层伴生的张性裂隙被围岩角砾或稍晚时段的沉积物充填；角砾灰岩体是同沉积正断层形成的断层崖崩落角砾岩，指示一个消失殆尽的晚泥盆世碳酸盐岩同沉积正断层陡崖，因而，桂林台地，至少西段台地边缘，是与右江各孤立台地边缘一样——在地质图上应标示为同沉积正断层边界。其构造意义是：庙头地区的灰岩脉、角砾灰岩体及同沉积断层是桂林台地对晚泥盆世构造伸展作用的响应，从而说明广西晚古生代的板块拉张，不是从二叠纪才开始的，而是至少从晚泥盆世就开始了；晚古生代至早三叠世持续的孤立台地与深水盆地相间的古地理格局，是在晚泥盆世就奠定了基础。     

卫星光学相机MTF在轨检测方法研究

调制传递函数是反映卫星光学相机成像性能的重要参数,针对调制传递函数多种在轨检测方法,本文在分析了可利用地面景物的基础上,结合目前卫星光学相机分辨率不断提高的现状,着重从原理和方法上介绍了利用不同亮度地块接壤的地面靶标进行检验的刃边法,同时依据实验研究成果,介绍了对原始刃边数据拟合和调制传递函数的频谱增密技术,这些技术对提高调制传递函数获取精度具有重要的作用。     

兴隆60 cm望远镜主焦CCD系统测光性能的研究

对兴隆６０ｃｍ望远镜主焦ＣＣＤ系统的测光性能进行了测试和研究．测定了ＣＣＤ快门时间函数,讨论了快门延迟效应对短时间曝光观测的可能影响．通过观测大批Ｌａｎｄｏｌｔ标准星,较准确地定出了ＢＶＲＩ宽带测光的星等系统转换关系,结果表明本系统与标准ＢＶＲＩ系统很接近．对ＣＣＤ系统的天文测光精度作了仔细的检验和分析,并对ＰＳＦ拟合测光和孔径测光两种方法进行了比较     

从地方病和环境污染性疾病看微量元素与钙的关系

从地方病和环境污染性疾病看微量元素与钙的关系李广生井玲（白求恩医科大学,长春１３００２１）关键词微量元素钙地方病环境污染性疾病我国几种主要地方病都与一定的微量元素有关,这已为大家所熟知。而值得重视的是,除了微量元素之外,它们又都在某些环节上与宏量元素...     

由土卫九(Phoebe)轨道数值改进求解土星质量

为测定土星质量,对收集到的1905年至2006年期间的686次观测[其中包括182次照相观测和504次CCD(电荷耦合器件)观测]通过数值积分进行拟合来改进土星的暗弱的外卫星Phoebe的轨道,并得到土星系总质量msa的新的测定值:3 497.0-1msun(太阳质量),为更精确地测定土星质量提供了一个有价值的参考值。     

Spatial scale effect on seasonal streamflows in permafrost catchments on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The scale issue is of central concern in hydrological processes to understand the potential upscaling or downscaling methodologies, and to develop models for scaling the dominant processes at different scales and in different environments. In this study, a typical permafrost watershed in the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau was selected. Its hydrological processes were monitored for 4 years from 2004 to 2008, measuring the effects of freezing and thawing depth of active soil layers on runoff processes. To identify the nature and cause of variation in the runoff response in different size catchments, catchments ranging from 1·07 to 112 km² were identified in the watershed. The results indicated that the variation of runoff coefficients showed a ‘V’ shape with increasing catchment size during the spring and autumn seasons, when the active soil was subjected to thawing or freezing processes. A two‐stage method was proposed to create runoff scaling models to indicate the effects of scale on runoff processes. In summer, the scaling transition model followed an exponential function for mean daily discharge, whereas the scaling model for flood flow exhibited a linear function. In autumn, the runoff process transition across multiple scales followed an exponential function with air temperature as the driving factor. These scaling models demonstrate relatively high simulation efficiency and precision, and provide a practical way for upscaling or downscaling runoff processes in a medium‐size permafrost watershed. For permafrost catchments of this scale, the results show that the synergistic effect of scale and vegetation cover is an important driving factor in the runoff response. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

吕宋海峡内波吸引子的三维数值模拟

Internal waves propagate along wave beams that are inclined with respect to the horizontal plane. It is conjectured that the internal waves generated in the Luzon Strait may be confined between the double ridges in the strait and concentrate to a closed trajectory, the so-called internal wave attractor, due to the reflection of wave beams from the lateral boundaries, sea surface and bottom. This work carried out two experiments using a three dimensional non-hydrostatic general circulation model, MITgcm, to investigate the possibility that the ridges in the Luzon Strait allows for internal wave attractors. Baroclinic current in both of the experiments demonstrate the forming of ring-like patterns in some section around 20° and 21°N, indicating that the development of the internal wave attractors are allowed in the Luzon Strait. The different resolutions and initial conditions in the two experiments also reveal that the internal-wave-attractor phenomenon is robust in this region.     

Simulation of the extreme waves generated by typhoon Bolaven (1215) in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea

Record-breaking high waves occurred during the passage of the typhoon Bolaven (1215) (TYB) in the East China Sea (ECS) and Yellow Sea (YS) although its intensity did not reach the level of a super typhoon. Winds and directional wave measurements were made using a range of in-situ instruments mounted on an ocean tower and buoys. In order to understand how such high waves with long duration occurred, analyses have been made through measurement and numerical simulations. TYB winds were generated using the TC96 typhoon wind model with the best track data calibrated with the measurements. And then the wind fields were blended with the reanalyzed synoptic-scale wind fields for a wave model. Wave fields were simulated using WAM4.5 with adjustment of C_d for gust of winds and bottom friction for the study area. Thus the accuracy of simulations is considerably enhanced, and the computed results are also in better agreement with measured data than before. It is found that the extremely high waves evolved as a result of the superposition of distant large swells and high wind seas generated by strong winds from the front/right quadrant of the typhoon track. As the typhoon moved at a speed a little slower than the dominant wave group velocity in a consistent direction for two days, the wave growth was significantly enhanced by strong wind input in an extended fetch and non-linear interaction.