基于动态极值理论和Copula函数的极端海平面高度预测建模

全球气候变化背景下,海平面上升是一个潜在的重大风险,为防范气候灾害,应对极端气象海洋事件,需客观、定量地对未来极端海平面变化进行科学预测。为此,基于Copula函数和动态极值分析理论,综合考虑平均海平面变化(包括垂直陆地运动和基准的局地变化)与潮、涌、浪等其他气候变化的增水对极端海平面高度的影响,采用DREAM方法改进Bayes推断对动态极值模型的参数空间估计问题,提出一种新的模型对未来极端海平面高度变化进行预测,旨在改进传统模型存在的不确定性问题,并运用该模型对气候变化背景下厦门地区未来35年的海平面变化情景进行了模型应用和实验模拟。     

国际上的政治地理学研究进展与启示————对《Political Geography》杂志2005-2015年载文的分析

通过对国际上的政治地理学旗舰性杂志《Political Geography》2005-2015年期间391篇成果的分析,总结出国际政治地理学研究的主要研究议题为:边境与边界,环境政治,空间与尺度,领土和主权以及安全问题,选举地理,社会和文化政治,其中空间与尺度,领土和主权以及安全问题,社会和文化政治几个方向研究成果占较大比例,而其他三个方向则相对较少.通过研究方法分析发现,国际政治地理学主要采用定性分析的方法,尤其是民族志和文本分析的方法,定量分析的使用存在一定的局限性.最后,从该杂志的研究对象和研究机构两个方面的分析归纳出:欧美主导的发达国家(尤其是英国和美国)对世界政治地理学话题的学术霸权与世界南,北差异发展具有一定的相关性.在中国综合国力日渐增强,参与国际事务能力不断提高以及作为新兴的地缘政治力量崛起的社会历史背景下,政治地理学经世致用之能亟待被展现.因此,中国政治地理学发展作为发展中国家的声音势必将越来越洪亮.     

Phase characteristic analysis of continuous depth air-gun source wavelet

Air guns are important sources for marine seismic exploration. Far-field wavelet of air gun arrays, as a necessary parameter for pre-stack processing and source models, plays an important role during marine seismic data processing and interpretation. When an air gun fires, it generates a series of air bubbles. Similar to onshore seismic exploration, the water forms a plastic fluid near the bubble; the farther the air gun is located from the measurement, the more steady and more accurately represented the wavelet will be. In practice, hydrophones should be placed more than 100 m from the air gun; however, traditional seismic cables cannot meet this requirement. On the other hand, vertical cables provide a viable solution to this problem. This study uses a vertical cable to receive wavelets from 38 air guns and data are collected offshore Southeast Qiong, where the water depth is over 1000 m. In this study, the wavelets measured using this technique coincide very well with the simulated wavelets and can therefore represent the real shape of the wavelets. This experiment fills a technology gap in China.     

Phylogenetic diversity of culturable bacteria in surface seawater from the Drake Passage,Antarctica

The Drake Passage is located between the Antarctic Peninsula and Tierra del Fuego in the south of South America. Surface seawater samples were collected at seven sites in the Drake Passage during the austral summer of 2012. The 16S rRNA sequences were analyzed from 187 isolated bacterial strains. Three phyla, 29 genera and 56 species were identified. The three phyla were Actinobacteria, Firmicutes and Proteobacteria; the Proteobacteria included α-Proteobacteria, β-Proteobacteria and γ-Proteobacteria. γ-Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria and Firmicutes were the dominant class or phyla in terms of quantity and species. Gram-positive bacteria (Actinobacteria and Firmicutes) accounted for 57.8% of all types identified. There were nine dominant genera, including Curtobacterium, Staphylococcus, and Halomonas, and 14 dominant species including Curtobacterium flaccumfaciens, Curtobacterium pusillum, and Staphylococcus sciuri. Of the strains identified, 87.2% were catalase positive or weakly positive.     

U–Pb zircon age of the base of the Ediacaran System at the southern margin of the Qinling Orogen

Global abrupt climate change from Marinoan snowball Earth to greenhouse Earth, recorded as cap carbonate overlain on diamictite, had shed the first light on Cambrian bio-radiation. The most documented cap carbonate sections are typical with comprehensive δ¹³C negative values and ubiquitous sedimentary structures, such as tepee-like, sheet-crack etc., which are associated with successive glacial eustatic variation caused by isostatic rebound in shallow-water facies. Here we report a deep-water basinal cap carbonate section with strong negative δ¹³C values in the southern margin of the Qinling Orogen, Heyu, Chengkou County, Chongqing in China, which consists of massive dolostone with abundant carbonaceous laminae. However, it lacks the sedimentary structure as mentioned above and is overlain by thin-bedded silicious shales and cherts. A K-bentonite bed was discovered within the base of cap carbonates, about 0.7 m above the top of the Marinoan diamictite. Magmatic zircons that were separated from the K-bentonite bed yield a SIMS concordia U–Pb age of 634.1 ± 1.9 Ma (1σ, MSWD_CE = 0.31, Probability_CE = 1.000, n = 20). The age is in good agreement with previously reported TIMS U–Pb ages for the termination of Marinoan glaciation and provides a geochronological constraint for the Ediacaran successions in the Qinling Orogen.     

Effects of a proline solution cover on the geochemical and mineralogical characteristics of high-sulfur coal gangue

Batch experiments were conducted to comparatively evaluate the inhibition effects and mechanisms of a low-concentration (1%) proline solution cover on the release of pollutants from high-sulfur coal gangue. High-sulfur coal gangue was continuously immersed in a proline solution and in deionized water (as a control treatment) for 540 days. The results showed that the coal gangue in the control treatment was oxidized and generated leachate with poor water qualities, i.e., the leachate exhibited lower pH values, higher redox potential values, higher pollutant concentrations (SO₄^2?, Fe, Mn, Cu, and Zn), and high levels of acidophilic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria. However, compared to the control treatment, the addition of the proline solution (1%) significantly improved the water quality of the leachate by significantly reducing the Eh values, the pollutant concentrations (SO₄^2?, Fe²⁺, Fe, Mn, Cu, and Zn), and the activity of acidophilic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria and by significantly increasing the pH value to neutral. The proline treatment significantly inhibited the oxidation of coal gangue and the release of pollutants, mainly by inhibiting the activity of acidophilic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria and by altering the heavy metal fractions and the mineralogical characteristics. Therefore, in engineering practice, workers should consider using an environmental friendly aqueous proline solution cover to achieve the in-situ control of pollutant releases from coal gangue dumps.     

Geochemical and Petrological Studies on the Early Carboniferous Sidingheishan Mafic–Ultramafic Iintrusion in the Southern Margin of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt, NW China

The Sidingheishan mafic-ultramafic intrusion is located in the eastern part of the Northern Tianshan Mountain, along the southern margin of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt in northern Xinjiang autonomous region of China. The Sidingheishan intrusion is mainly composed of wehrlite, olivine websterite, olivine gabbro, gabbro and hornblende gabbro. At least two pulses of magma were involved in the formation of the intrusion. The first pulse of magma produced an olivine-free unit and the second pulse produced an olivine-bearing unit. The magmas intruded the Devonian granites and granodiorites.An age of 351.4±5.8 Ma(Early Carboniferous) for the Sidingheishan intrusion has been determined by U-Pb SHRIMP analysis of zircon grains separated from the olivine gabbro unit. A U-Pb age of 359.2±6.4 Ma from the gabbro unit has been obtained by LA-ICP-MS. Olivine of the Sidingheishan intrusion reaches 82.52 mole% Fo and 1414 ppm Ni. On the basis of olivine-liquid equilibria, it has been calculated that the MgO and FeO included in the parental magma of a wehrlite sample were approximately10.43 wt% and 13.14 wt%, respectively. The Sidingheishan intrusive rocks are characterized by moderate enrichments in Th and Sm, slight enrichments in light REE, and depletions in Nb, Ta, Zr and Hf. The ε_(Nd)(t) values in the rock units vary from +6.70 to +9.64, and initial ~(87)Sr/~(86)Sr ratios range between 0.7035 and0.7042. Initial ~(206)Pb/~(204)Pb, ~(207)Pb/~(204)Pb and ~(208)Pb/~(204)Pb values fall in the ranges of 17.23-17.91,15.45-15.54 and 37.54-38.09 respectively. These characteristics are collectively similar to the Heishan intrusion and the Early Carboniferous subduction related volcanic rocks in the Santanghu Basin, North Tianshan and Beishan area. The low(La/Gd)_(PM) values between 0.26 and 1.77 indicate that the magma of the Sidingheishan intrusion was most likely derived from a depleted spinel-peridotite mantle.(Th/Nb)_(PM)ratios from 0.59 to 20.25 indicate contamination of the parental magma in the upper crust.Crystallization modeling methods suggest that the parental magma of the Sidingheishan intrusion was generated by flush melting of the asthenosphere and subsequently there was about 10 vol%contamination from a granitic melt. This was followed by about 5 vol% assimilation of upper crustal rocks. Thus, the high-Mg basaltic parental magma of Sidingheishan intrusion is interpreted to have formed from partial melting of the asthenosphere during the break-off of a subducted slab.     

Comparative Study of Hydrogen and Carbon Isotopic Composition of Gases Generated from the Pyrolysis of a Peat under Saltwater and Freshwater Conditions

To understand the influence of the diagenetic water medium on the isotopic compositions of thermogenic coalbed gas, both hydrous and anhydrous closed-system pyrolyses were performed at temperatures of 250°C to 650°C on an herbaceous marsh peat. Compared to the results of anhydrous pyrolysis, the hydrocarbon gases generated from hydrous pyrolyses have very different hydrogen isotopic compositions. However, the carbon isotopic compositions of the hydrocarbon gases became only slightly heavier in hydrous pyrolysis, compared to that from anhydrous pyrolysis. With the progress of thermal evolution from peat to a more advanced thermal maturity of vitrinite reflectance values (Ro) of 5.5% during the pyrolysis, the difference in the average δD value increased from 52‰ to 64‰ between the hydrous pyrolysis with saltwater and anhydrous pyrolysis and increased from 18‰ to 29‰ between the hydrous pyrolysis with freshwater and anhydrous pyrolysis, respectively. The difference in the average δ13C value was only 1‰–2‰ between the hydrous and anhydrous pyrolysis. The relationships between the δD values of the generated hydrocarbon gases and Ro values as well as among δD values of the hydrocarbon gas species are established. The close relationships among these parameters suggest that the water medium had a significant effect on the hydrogen isotopic composition and a minimal effect on the carbon isotopic composition of the hydrocarbon gases. The results of these pyrolyses may provide information for the understanding of the genesis of coalbed gas from herbaceous marsh material with the participation of different diagenetic water media.     

阿尔金中段大通沟花岗岩体年代学、地球化学特征及其成因

出露于阿尔金中段的大通沟花岗岩体,岩性主要为二长花岗岩,LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄为(353.7±1.1)Ma。SiO_2为74.5%~76.2%,Al_2O_3为12.62%~14.15%,(Na_2O+K_2O)为7.71%~8.29%,K_2O/Na_2O为0.9~1.22,A/CNK介于1.0~1.19之间,属高钾钙碱性系列的过铝质-强过铝质花岗岩。该岩石富集大离子亲石元素(LILE),亏损素Ba、Nb、Sr、P、Ti等高场强元素(HFSE);∑REE变化范围大(∑REE=85.7×10~(-6)~153.2×10~(-6),平均为111×10~(-6)),具有强烈的负Eu异常(δEu=0.03~0.59,平均0.33),LREE/HREE=3.52~11.9,轻稀土相对富集,轻重稀土分馏明显。微量元素地球化学特征表明,其源区物质主要来源于上地壳的变杂砂岩和变泥质岩类。锆石饱和温度计演算结果显示锆石的结晶温度为722~745℃(平均735℃),估算二长花岗岩源区的压力为0.8~1.6GPa。综合区域地质资料,阿尔金中段大通沟花岗岩体的形成与造山带根部块体的拆沉作用有关。     

川南地区海相页岩气中发现微量硫化氢

正1研究目的(Objective)自2011年在四川南部地区下古生界海相地层中获得页岩气工业性突破以来,在四川盆地进行的海相页岩气开发得到多方的重视和迅速发展,随之而来的是人们对页岩气勘探开发过程中对环境影响的关注。页岩气,它以吸附或游离状态为主要方式赋存于富有机质泥页岩及其夹层中,是一种非常规天然气。与常规天然气相比,页岩气气质优良,甲烷含量更高。页岩气化学成分主要为甲烷(CH4),一般含量在85%以上,最高达到99.8%,另外还含有少量的乙烷(C2H6)、丙烷(C3H8)和丁烷(C4H10)。一般认为我国页岩气中可以存在少量氮