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Summary Selected small domain LAM forecasts modulated by highly corrugated underlying topography, and driven by different state-of-science outer models suggest that uncertain outer model guidance for LAMs produces large, domain averaged sensitivity. A further literature survey indicates that many LAM forecasts are relatively insensitive to details of the local initial state, and that mesoscales show slight error growth, in contradiction to classical predictability theory. A series of global predictability experiments is presented in order to reconcile the contradiction. The experiments imply that, even in baroclinically unstable atmospheres, the most common sources of local error growth are associated with small uncertainties of the larger spatial scales rather than small uncertainties of the smaller spatial scales. Variable resolution, real-data experiments of barotropic versions of the global model display substantial mesoscale error growth, due principally to the effect of larger scales. The uncertainties possessing largest spatial scale appear as boundary uncertainties in LAMs, and explain the strong boundary sensitivity and weak local initial data sensitivity observed in many LAMs. We infer that accurate depiction of the largest spatial scales is a first order priority for accurate local prediction, and that for the advective portion of the dynamics, errors of the outer model that provides lateral boundary conditions may impose the largest current practical limitation for many LAM predictions.With 10 Figures 相似文献
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近40年山西省初终霜日的变化特征 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
利用山西省境内分布较为均匀的52 个地面气象站1970-2009 年的霜日观测资料,采用线性倾向估计法、累积滤波器法结合非参数统计检验方法分析了初终霜日的基本特征及其变化趋势;利用M-K法分析了霜日的突变特征。结果表明:初霜日、终霜日的出现以及无霜期的长短与地理因素密切相关,随着纬度逐渐偏北、海拔逐渐升高,初霜日提前、终霜日推后、无霜期缩短。从全省平均情况看,初霜日呈现显著的推后趋势,无霜期呈现显著的延长趋势,而终霜日的变化则以波动为主,线性变化趋势不显著。从突变检测情况看,初霜日、终霜日和无霜期在40 年间均存在一次明显突变,初霜日的突变点出现在2000 年,终霜日和无霜期的突变点出现在1997 年。从变化趋势的空间分布看,初霜日显著推后的区域大片集中在晋中东部、吕梁北部和忻州西部,以及分散在运城南部、临汾西北部和大同南部。终霜日显著提前的区域位于晋中东部山区、吕梁山东部和忻州西部。无霜期显著延长的区域位于西北部黄河沿岸、省境中东部和运城南段。变化趋势为初霜日提前、终霜日推后和无霜期缩短的区域未通过显著性检验。 相似文献
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Chen Peixiong Sun Zhilin Zhou Xin Xia Yuezhang Li Li He Zhiguo Wang Rusheng Xie Haijian 《Ocean Dynamics》2021,71(3):323-341
Ocean Dynamics - Coastal reclamation projects have been extensively constructed along the coastline of the East China Sea over the past decades. To investigate the impact of reclamations on the... 相似文献
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This paper first presents the molecule design and synthesis of crown-link type alkyd resin,and its enrichment behaviour for potassium ion in low concentration solution and sea water.On the basis of some theory concepts of Host-Guest chemistry developed in recent years,we have designed and synthesized a new polymer enrichment agent of crow-link resin for potassiumion,i.e.,polymacrocyclic ether bislactone of diethylene glycolpyromyllitic acid(briefly called crown-link type alkyd resin or PBL resin).The yield was about 97.4%,almost quantitatively. 相似文献
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Xue Zhang Zhongwu Li Guangming Zeng Xiaolan Xia Lin Yang Jiajie Wu 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,67(6):1725-1734
Erosion can have a significant impact on soil properties in areas characterized by undulating topography. The spatial trends of soil properties and the availability of soil nutrients change with land use conversion. Most studies on these changes in China, however, focus on the natural or agricultural ecosystems. Little attention has been paid to unique changes, such as the conversion of natural or agricultural land to economic development zones. To this end, it has been determined that the properties of the surface soil in an economic development zone with unique topography characterized by large mounds of earth and stones in the red soil hilly region in China. The aim of this study is to characterize the overall level and spatial patterns of the concentrations of topsoil selected soil properties, including pH, cation exchange capacity (CEC), bulk density, soil moisture, soil organic carbon (SOC), soil nitrogen (N), soil phosphorus (P), and soil potassium (K). Results show that the mean pH and CEC of soils is as low as 5.35 and 6.47?cmol?kg?1, and the mean value of soil moisture is 0.30?g?g?1, and the mean level of bulk density is 1.45?g?cm?3. SOC and total P are as low as 5.89 and 0.35?g?kg?1, while total N and total K have a high level of 8.44 and 25.2?g?kg?1. The mean level of alkali-hydrolyzable N, Olsen P, and available K is 54.33, 6.35, and 120.33?mg?kg?1, respectively, all at intermediate or low levels according to the Second National Soil Survey. All selected soil properties and nutrients have overall similar spatial patterns with the highest value on the lower slope positions except for alkali-hydrolyzable N. The results are most likely governed by the native properties of red soil, zonal climate, agricultural history for all the soils, and different degrees of soil erosion, and the probable impact of human activity like construction among different slope positions. Results indicate that (1) topography influences soil properties, as evidenced by the different spatial trends of the soil nutrients, and (2) human activity, especially construction, affects the soil properties of economic development zones. This study aims to provide valuable insights for the evaluation of soil quality as a prerequisite for land use planning in economic development zones. 相似文献
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目前,我国湖泊富营养化及蓝藻水华问题十分突出,国家高度重视湖泊的生态环境保护.自“九五”以来,国家就投入太湖、巢湖、滇池“老三湖”等重污染湖泊的治理,但成本巨大,且历经近30年才初见成效.按照湖泊污染程度,湖泊治理与保护可分为“污染治理型”“防治结合型”“生态保育型”3大类.“老三湖”的治理是典型的“先污染、后治理”的模式,水质较好湖泊主要属于生态保育型湖泊,因此,“老三湖”治理模式不适用于水质较好湖泊的保护.本文系统总结了我国水质较好湖泊优先保护理念的形成和水质较好湖泊专项实施的历程.根据水质较好湖泊的特点,及其生态系统退化与修复的一般过程,提出了水质较好湖泊保护的基本思路.从热力学角度,阐明了氮磷营养盐输入湖泊生态系统中是熵增过程,也是湖泊生态系统退化的根本原因,湖泊氮磷污染负荷源头控制是关键.湖泊流域生态安全格局是确保湖泊生态系统健康的基础,从景观生态学角度,阐明了优化湖泊流域水土资源利用、优化发展模式是减轻湖泊环境压力的重要途径.在浅水湖泊生态系统,以沉水植物占优势的“清水态”和以浮游植物占优势的“浊水态”转换过程不是沿着同一条途径,存在上临界阈值和下临界阈值,水生态修复过程表现出一种迟滞的现象.从湖泊水生态系统稳态转换理论角度,阐明了湖泊生态修复工程应在湖泊生态系统发生退化转变之前实施,才能获得较高的环境效益.通过国家财政专项对81个水质较好湖泊的支持,既能促进湖泊流域经济社会发展,又能确保湖泊水环境质量变好,湖泊水生态系统逐步改善.建议加强不同类型湖泊保护模式的总结,深入对水质较好湖泊生态系统演替理论和保护技术研究,支撑国家系统开展水质较好湖泊保护. 相似文献
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目的 建立传统元胞自动机(CA)模型时,如果样本数量不足,模拟效果往往非常不理想。提出了多源领域知识迁移CA模型,利用多个已有的旧样本数据集来帮助建立新的CA模型,并选取广东省深圳市作为试验区验证了其有效性。试验结果表明,该模型在新样本数量不足的情况下能够明显改善模拟效果,并且有效减小产生负迁移现象的风险。 相似文献