Evaluating social vulnerability indicators: criteria and their application to the Social Vulnerability Index

Natural Hazards - As a concept, social vulnerability describes combinations of social, cultural, economic, political, and institutional processes that shape socioeconomic differentials in the...     

大陆内的长余震序列和对地震危险性评估的意义

板块构造学说最强大的特点之一,是通过已知的板块运动可以了解板块边界未来大地震的地点和平均复发间隔。然而板块构造学却不能探知板块之内何时何处发生地震,因为理想的板块内部不发生形变。因此,在板块内部,进行地震危险性评估主要依靠的假设是,短期历史记录给出的小地震的位置反映出连续形变从而引发未来大地震（Shed—locketal,2000）。然而在此我们提出,最近的这些地震有许多可能是数百年前大地震的余震。我们提出一简单模型可预测：余震序列的长度和断层应力加载的速．率成反比。     

大陆内部长余震序列及其对地震风险评估的启示

板块构造学说的最有力的特征之一,是已知的板块运动让我们对板块边界未来大地震的发震位置和平均复发间隔有更清晰的认识。然而,板块构造学说却不能预测板块内的地震何时何地发生,因为理想的板块内部是不会变形的。因此,板块内部的地震风险评估过于依靠如下假设：从有限的历史记录中得到的小地震发震位置能够反映出连续变形的地区,而变形将诱发未来大地震[1]。然而,本文将要说明的是,最近许多这样的小地震很可能是几百年前发生过的大地震的余震。文中将给出一个简单的模型,并由此模型得出：余震序列的长度和断层加载速率呈反比关系。发生在缓慢变形的大陆内部的余震序列,其持续时间与在快速加载的板块边界所观测到的典型的10年尺度余震序列相比要长得多。因为这些预测与观测结果相符,所以将大陆内部地震看作稳态地震活动的一般做法高估了目前地震活跃地区的地震危险性,而低估了其他地区的地震风险。     

Differential developmental toxicity of naphthoic acid isomers in medaka (Oryzias latipes) embryos

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are widespread persistent pollutants that readily undergo biotic and abiotic conversion to numerous transformation products in rivers, lakes and estuarine sediments. Here we characterize the developmental toxicity of four PAH transformation products each structural isomers of hydroxynaphthoic acid: 1H2NA, 2H1NA, 2H3NA, and 6H2NA. Medaka fish (Oryzias latipes) embryos and eleutheroembryos were used to determine toxicity. A 96-well micro-plate format was used to establish a robust, statistically significant platform for assessment of early life stages. Individual naphthoic acid isomers demonstrated a rank order of toxicity with 1H2NA>2H1NA>2H3NA>6H2NA being more toxic. Abnormalities of circulatory system were most pronounced including pericardial edema and tube heart. To determine if HNA isomers were AhR ligands, spatial-temporal expression and activity of CYP1A was measured via in vivo EROD assessments. qPCR measurement of CYP1A induction proved different between isomers dosed at respective concentrations affecting 50% of exposed individuals (EC50s). In vitro, all ANH isomers transactivated mouse AhR using a medaka CYP1A promoter specific reporter assay. Circulatory abnormalities followed P450 induction and response was consistent with PAH toxicity. A 96-well micro-plates proved suitable as exposure chambers and provided statistically sound evaluations as well as efficient toxicity screens. Our results demonstrate the use of medaka embryos for toxicity analysis thereby achieving REACH objectives for the reduction of adult animal testing in toxicity evaluations.     

A shallow subsurface controlled release facility in Bozeman, Montana, USA, for testing near surface CO2 detection techniques and transport models

A controlled field pilot has been developed in Bozeman, Montana, USA, to study near surface CO₂ transport and detection technologies. A slotted horizontal well divided into six zones was installed in the shallow subsurface. The scale and CO₂ release rates were chosen to be relevant to developing monitoring strategies for geological carbon storage. The field site was characterized before injection, and CO₂ transport and concentrations in saturated soil and the vadose zone were modeled. Controlled releases of CO₂ from the horizontal well were performed in the summers of 2007 and 2008, and collaborators from six national labs, three universities, and the U.S. Geological Survey investigated movement of CO₂ through the soil, water, plants, and air with a wide range of near surface detection techniques. An overview of these results will be presented.     

Geochemical variations in the Cocos Plate subducting beneath Central America: implications for the composition of arc volcanism and the extent of the Galápagos Hotspot influence on the Cocos oceanic crust

New geochemical data from the Cocos Plate constrain the composition of the input into the Central American subduction zone and demonstrate the extent of influence of the Galápagos Hotspot on the Cocos Plate. Samples include sediments and basalts from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1256 outboard of Nicaragua, gabbroic sills from ODP Sites 1039 and 1040, tholeiitic glasses from the Fisher Ridge off northwest Costa Rica, and basalts from the Galápagos Hotspot Track outboard of Central Costa Rica. Site 1256 basalts range from normal to enriched MORB in incompatible elements and have Pb and Nd isotopic compositions within the East Pacific Rise MORB field. The sediments have similar ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb and only slightly more radiogenic ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb isotope ratios than the basalts. Altered samples from the subducting Galápagos Hotspot Track have similar Nd and Pb isotopic compositions to fresh Galápagos samples but have significantly higher Sr isotopic composition, indicating that the subduction input will have a distinct geochemical signature from Galápagos-type mantle material that may be present in the wedge beneath Costa Rica. Gabbroic sills from Sites 1039 and 1040 in East Pacific Rise (EPR) crust show evidence for influence of the Galápagos Hotspot ∼100 km beyond the morphological hotspot track.     

Evaluation of water‐use policies for baseflow recovery during droughts in an agricultural intensive karst watershed: Case study of the lower Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin,southeastern United States

The lower Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin in the Southeast United States represents a major agricultural area underlain by the highly productive karstic Upper Floridan aquifer (UFA). During El Niño Southern Oscillation‐induced droughts, intense groundwater withdrawal for irrigation lowers streamflow in the Flint River due to its hydraulic connectivity with the UFA and threatens the habitat of the federally listed and endangered aquatic biota. This study assessed the compounding hydrologic effects of increased irrigation pumping during drought years (2010–2012) on stream–aquifer water exchange (stream–aquifer flux) between the Flint River and UFA using the United States Geological Survey modular finite element groundwater flow model. Principal component and K‐means clustering analyses were used to identify critical stream reaches and tributaries that are adversely affected by irrigation pumping. Additionally, the effectiveness of possible water restriction scenarios on stream–aquifer flux was also analysed. Moreover, a cost–benefit analysis of acreage buyout procedure was conducted for various water restriction scenarios. Results indicate that increased groundwater withdrawal in Water Year 2011 decreased baseflow in the lower Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin, particularly, in Spring Creek, where irrigation pumping during April, June, and July changed the creek condition from a gaining to losing stream. Results from sensitivity analysis and simulated water restrictions suggest that reducing pumping in selected sensitive areas is more effective in streamflow recovery (approximately 78%) than is reducing irrigation intensity by a prescribed percentage of current pumping rates, such as 15% or 30%, throughout the basin. Moreover, analysis of acreage buyout indicates that restrictions on irrigation withdrawal can have significant impacts on stream–aquifer flux in the Basin, especially in critical watersheds such as Spring and Ichawaynochaway Creeks. The proposed procedure for ranking of stream reaches (sensitivity analysis) in this study can be replicated in other study areas/models. This study provides useful information to policymakers for devising alternate irrigation water withdrawal policies during droughts for maintaining flow levels in the study area.     

Sounding Rocket Observations of Active Region Soft X-Ray Spectra Between 0.5 and 2.5 nm Using a Modified SDO/EVE Instrument

Spectrally resolved measurements of individual solar active regions (ARs) in the soft X-ray (SXR) range are important for studying dynamic processes in the solar corona and their associated effects on the Earth’s upper atmosphere. They are also a means of evaluating atomic data and elemental abundances used in physics-based solar spectral models. However, very few such measurements are available. We present spectral measurements of two individual ARs in the 0.5 to 2.5 nm range obtained on the NASA 36.290 sounding rocket flight of 21 October 2013 (at about 18:30 UT) using the Solar Aspect Monitor (SAM), a channel of the Extreme Ultaviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) payload designed for underflight calibrations of the orbital EVE on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The EVE rocket instrument is a duplicate of the EVE on SDO, except the SAM channel on the rocket version was modified in 2012 to include a freestanding transmission grating to provide spectrally resolved images of the solar disk with the best signal to noise ratio for the brightest features, such as ARs. Calibrations of the EVE sounding rocket instrument at the National Institute of Standards and Technology Synchrotron Ultraviolet Radiation Facility (NIST/SURF) have provided a measurement of the SAM absolute spectral response function and a mapping of wavelength separation in the grating diffraction pattern. We discuss techniques (incorporating the NIST/SURF data) for determining SXR spectra from the dispersed AR images as well as the resulting spectra for NOAA ARs 11877 and 11875 observed on the 2013 rocket flight. In comparisons with physics-based spectral models using the CHIANTI v8 atomic database we find that both AR spectra are in good agreement with isothermal spectra (4 MK), as well as spectra based on an AR differential emission measure (DEM) included with the CHIANTI distribution, with the exception of the relative intensities of strong Fe?xvii lines associated with \(2p^{6}\)–\(2p^{5}3{s}\) and \(2p^{6}\)–\(2p^{5}3{d}\) transitions at about 1.7 nm and 1.5 nm, respectively. The ratio of the Fe?xvii lines suggests that the AR 11877 is hotter than the AR 11875. This result is confirmed with analysis of the active regions imaged by X-ray Telescope (XRT) onboard Hinode.