Incorporating irregular nonlinear waves in coupled simulation and reliability studies of offshore wind turbines

Design of an offshore wind turbine requires estimation of loads on its rotor, tower and supporting structure. These loads are obtained by time-domain simulations of the coupled aero-servo-hydro-elastic model of the wind turbine. Accuracy of predicted loads depends on assumptions made in the simulation models employed, both for the turbine and for the input wind and wave conditions. Currently, waves are simulated using a linear irregular wave theory that is not appropriate for nonlinear waves, which are even more pronounced in shallow water depths where wind farms are typically sited. The present study investigates the use of irregular nonlinear (second-order) waves for estimating loads on the support structure (monopile) of an offshore wind turbine. We present the theory for the irregular nonlinear model and incorporate it in the commonly used wind turbine simulation software, FAST, which had been developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), but which had the modeling capability only for irregular linear waves. We use an efficient algorithm for computation of nonlinear wave elevation and kinematics, so that a large number of time-domain simulations, which are required for prediction of long-term loads using statistical extrapolation, can easily be performed. To illustrate the influence of the alternative wave models, we compute loads at the base of the monopile of the NREL 5MW baseline wind turbine model using linear and nonlinear irregular wave models. We show that for a given environmental condition (i.e., the mean wind speed and the significant wave height), extreme loads are larger when computed using the nonlinear wave model. We finally compute long-term loads, which are required for a design load case according to the International Electrotechnical Commission guidelines, using the inverse first-order reliability method. We discuss a convergence criteria that may be used to predict accurate 20-year loads and discuss wind versus wave dominance in the load prediction. We show that 20-year long-term loads can be significantly higher when the nonlinear wave model is used.     

Identifying regions based on flexible user-defined constraints

The identification of regions is both a computational and conceptual challenge. Even with growing computational power, regionalization algorithms must rely on heuristic approaches in order to find solutions. Therefore, the constraints and evaluation criteria that define a region must be translated into an algorithm that can efficiently and effectively navigate the solution space to find the best solution. One limitation of many existing regionalization algorithms is a requirement that the number of regions be selected a priori. The recently introduced max-p algorithm does not have this requirement, and thus the number of regions is an output of, not an input to, the algorithm. In this paper, we extend the max-p algorithm to allow for greater flexibility in the constraints available to define a feasible region, placing the focus squarely on the multidimensional characteristics of the region. We also modify technical aspects of the algorithm to provide greater flexibility in its ability to search the solution space. Using synthetic spatial and attribute data, we are able to show the algorithm’s broad ability to identify regions in maps of varying complexity. We also conduct a large-scale computational experiment to identify parameter settings that result in the greatest solution accuracy under various scenarios. The rules of thumb identified from the experiment produce maps that correctly assign areas to their ‘true’ region with 94% average accuracy, with nearly 50% of the simulations reaching 100% accuracy.     

Dynamic domain kinematic modelling for predicting interflow over leaky impeding layers

Traditional Boussinesq or kinematic simulations of interflow (i.e., lateral subsurface flow) assume no leakage through the impeding layer and require a no-flow boundary condition at the ridge top. However, recent analyses of many interflow-producing landscapes indicate that leaky impeding layers are common, that most interflow percolates well before reaching the toe slope, and therefore, the downslope contributing length is shorter than the hillslope length. In watersheds characterised by perched interflow over a low conductivity layer through permeable topsoil, interflow with percolation may be modelled with a kinematic wave model using a mobile upslope boundary condition defining the hillslope portion contributing interflow to valleys. Here, we developed and applied a dynamic interflow model to simulate interflow using a downslope travel distance concept such that only the active contributing length is modelled at any time. The model defines a variable active area based on the depth of the perched layer, the topographic slope and the ratio of the hydraulic conductivity of topsoil to that of the impeding layer. It incorporates a two-layer soil moisture accounting water balance analysis, a pedo-transfer function, and percolation and evaporation routines to predict interflow rates in continuous and event-based scenarios. We tested the modelling concept on two sets of data (2-year dataset of rainfall observations for the continuous simulation and a multi-day irrigation experiment for the event simulation) from a 121-m-long open interflow collection trench on an experimental hillslope at the Savannah River Site, South Carolina. The continuous model simulation partially represented the observed interflow hydrograph and perched water depth in the experimental hillslope with correlation coefficients of 0.85 and 0.35, respectively. Model performance improved significantly at event-scale analysis. The modelling approach realistically represents interflow dynamics in hillslopes with leaky impeding layers and can be integrated into catchment-scale hydrology models for more detailed hillslope process modelling.     

Estimation and propagation of volcanic source parameter uncertainty in an ash transport and dispersal model: application to the Eyjafjallajokull plume of 14–16 April 2010

Data on source conditions for the 14 April 2010 paroxysmal phase of the Eyjafjallaj?kull eruption, Iceland, have been used as inputs to a trajectory-based eruption column model, bent. This model has in turn been adapted to generate output suitable as input to the volcanic ash transport and dispersal model, puff, which was used to propagate the paroxysmal ash cloud toward and over Europe over the following days. Some of the source parameters, specifically vent radius, vent source velocity, mean grain size of ejecta, and standard deviation of ejecta grain size have been assigned probability distributions based on our lack of knowledge of exact conditions at the source. These probability distributions for the input variables have been sampled in a Monte Carlo fashion using a technique that yields what we herein call the polynomial chaos quadrature weighted estimate (PCQWE) of output parameters from the ash transport and dispersal model. The advantage of PCQWE over Monte Carlo is that since it intelligently samples the input parameter space, fewer model runs are needed to yield estimates of moments and probabilities for the output variables. At each of these sample points for the input variables, a model run is performed. Output moments and probabilities are then computed by properly summing the weighted values of the output parameters of interest. Use of a computational eruption column model coupled with known weather conditions as given by radiosonde data gathered near the vent allows us to estimate that initial mass eruption rate on 14 April 2010 may have been as high as 10⁸?kg/s and was almost certainly above 10⁷?kg/s. This estimate is consistent with the probabilistic envelope computed by PCQWE for the downwind plume. The results furthermore show that statistical moments and probabilities can be computed in a reasonable time by using 9⁴?=?6,561 PCQWE model runs as opposed to millions of model runs that might be required by standard Monte Carlo techniques. The output mean ash cloud height plus three standard deviations??encompassing c. 99.7?% of the probability mass??compares well with four-dimensional ash cloud position as retrieved from Meteosat-9 SEVIRI data for 16 April 2010 as the ash cloud drifted over north-central Europe. Finally, the ability to compute statistical moments and probabilities may allow for the better separation of science and decision-making, by making it possible for scientists to better focus on error reduction and decision makers to focus on ??drawing the line?? for risk assessment.     

The strain seismograms of P- and S-waves of a local event recorded by four-gauge borehole strainmeter

At a sampling rate of 100 samples per second,the YRY-4 four-gauge borehole strainmeters(FGBS) are capable of recording transient strains caused by seismic waves such as P and S waves or strain seismograms. At such a high sampling rate, data from the YRY-4 strainmeters demonstrate fairly satisfactory self-consistency. The strain tensor seismograms demonstrate the senses of motion of P waves, that is, the type of seismic wave travels in the direction of the maximum normal strain change. The observed strain patterns of S waves significantly differ from those of P waves and should contain information about the source mechanism. Spectrum analysis shows that the strain seismograms are consistent with conventional broadband seismograms from the same site.     

Tectonics of the Easter plate

We present a new model for the Easter plate in which rift propagation has resulted in the formation of a rigid plate between the propagating and dying ridges. We use the distribution of earthquakes, eleven new focal mechanisms, and existing bathymetric and magnetic data to describe the tectonics of this area. Both the Easter-Nazca and Easter-Pacific Euler poles are sufficiently close to the Easter plate to cause rapid changes in rates and directions of motion along the boundaries. The east and west boundaries are propagating and dying ridges; the southwest boundary is a slow-spreading ridge and the northern boundary is a complex zone of convergent and transform motion.The Easter plate may reflect the tectonics of rift propagation on a large scale, where rigid plate tectonics requires boundary reorientation. We use simple schematic models to illustrate the general features and processes which occur at plates resulting from large-scale rift propagation.     

Temporal variation in cannibalistic infanticide by the shore crab Hemigrapsus oregonensis: implications for reproductive success

Larvae of benthic marine organisms are released amid high densities of suspension feeding and predatory adults and are highly subject to being consumed, even by conspecifics or their own parent. During laboratory feeding trials conducted in June 2006, female shore crabs (Hemigrapsus oregonensis) from Stege Marsh in San Francisco Bay (37°54.530′ N, 122°19.734′ W) that released their larvae during the previous 24 h ate fewer conspecific larvae than females that had not recently released larvae, though the behavior was not repeated during similar trials in 2007. Additionally, the number of larvae eaten increased with increasing starvation time, and hungrier females showed a trend toward eating more larvae from a different species (Carcinus maenas) than larvae of conspecifics. Thus, suppression of suspension feeding may reduce conspecific predation of newly released larvae, but this response partially depends on hunger level. This is the first time crabs have been shown to suppress feeding to reduce cannibalism of larvae, and this behavior could affect reproductive success and population dynamics.     

Efficient solution for matrix-fracture flow with multiple interacting continua

An efficient numerical procedure for implementing the multiple interacting continua (MINC) method for fractured porous media in a general-purpose multiphase simulator is presented. This procedure is substantially faster, requires less memory, is amenable to any n-component, multiphase non-isothermal package, and is readily adaptable for parallel processing computers. The present procedure results in a reduction of the computing time by a factor of the order of NMINC³ as compared to the band algorithm, where NMINC is the number of nested continua into which each matrix block is further discretized. The memory requirement approaches a reduction factor of the order of NMINC² for larger problems compared to the band algorithm. The code for the algorithm was structured so as to set up the time consuming, but independent, computations for each matrix block in a subroutine that was parallelized and tested using a Sequent machine accessed under a UNIX environment. For NMINC=10, total computing time was reduced by 33 per cent for the use of two versus one processor, with the savings increasing for increasing NMINC. The proposed procedure can be implemented with the same ease and efficiency in conjunction with any iterative or direct method, and the grid-blocks can be ordered in any non-standard manner such as in D-4, D-2, and others. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.