省级气象科技信息管理与服务平台建设研究

Web的信息资源建设是近年在Internet上应用较广，其优秀的即时性和良好的交互性，使得这一新技术在各级企事业单位得到广泛的应用。随着气象部门的网络环境的改善，采用B／S(浏览器／服务器)模式网络结构建立省级科技信息管理与服务系统完全成为可能。本文结合省级气象部门科技管理实际需求，从平台设计思路、系统开发、数据库、系统安全等角度提出了实现的概要方案和相关技术。     

日本琵琶湖的水动力三维数值模拟

在笛卡尔坐标下，运用流体水动力学的方法，并在前人观测资料的基础上建立了一个三维水动力数值模式，并对日本琵琶湖风生流进行了数值模拟。结果表明，在５ｍ／ｓ的东南风、西南风、东北风作用下，湖的北端均有气旋式环流出现，在５ｍ／ｓ西北风作用下，湖的北端有反气旋式环流出现。在各种方向风速驱动下，中、低层场或形成与表层一致的环流型，或呈现明显的垂直切变。     

Induction Effect and Genetic Analysis of NG to Conchospores of Porphyra

The new spreading conchospores ot Porphyra yezoensis, P. haitanensis and P. katadai var. hemiphylla are induced by N-Methy-N‘-Nitro-N-Nitrosoguanidine (NG), a strong mutagen to induce the mutant of chromatophore. It is showed that (1) no mutants have been investigated in all control group. (2)The conchospores of all the three species of Porphyra are easy to be induced by NG for they are in the stage of breeding, In the lowest dose (10 μ g/mL) of this experiment, the mutant rate of P. yezoensis is up to 57.9%, that of P. haitanensis 30.7% and that of P. katadai var. hemiphylla 51.7%. (3)The mutant rate can not increase obviously by increasing the reagent concentration or prolonging the induction time. Within the scope of experiment, the inducement effects of three species of Porphyra ar e much similar, and the mutant rate is near 50%. The optimum induction concentration of NG is 10 μ g/mL, and the optimum induction time is 30 minutes.     

条斑紫菜丝状孢子体cDNA文库构建及抗病相关基因鉴定

经过微量总 RNA抽提、c DNA合成、c DNA扩增和克隆等步骤 ,构建了微量条斑紫菜丝状孢子体 c DNA文库 ,并进行了小规模表达序列标签分析。从 1 70条标签序列中鉴定出 6条抗病相关基因序列。这些序列可用于研制抗病单核苷酸多态性标记 ,辅助紫菜抗性遗传改良。     

用于紫菜无性系种质鉴定的计算机化DNA指纹的建立

研究用RAPD技术对条斑紫菜(Porphyra yezoensis)、坛紫菜(P.Haitanensis)、半叶紫菜(P.Katadai var.Hemiphylla)和少精紫菜(P.Oligospermatangia)的15个无性系丝状体进行了遗传多样分析,用120个Operon引物进行了筛选,从中选用来自OPJ-18和OPN-02扩增出的8条多态性条带构建了这15个紫菜无性系的DNA指纹图谱,在该图谱中每个紫菜无性系均有各自特异的DNA指纹.用1和0分别表示DNA带的出现和缺失,将各个无性系的DNA指纹用计算机语言表示,建立了15个紫菜无性系的计算机化DNA指纹;在此基础上设计了紫菜无性系种质鉴定的计算机软件PhGI.     

Threshold autoregression models for forecasting El Nino events

-In this paper, monthly mean SST data in a large area are used. After the spacial average of the data is carried out and the secular monthly means are substracted, a time series (Jan. 1951-Dec. 1985) of SST anomalies of the cold tongue water area in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is obtained. On the basis of the time series, an autoregression model, a self-exciting threshold autoregression model and an open loop autoregression model are developed respectively. The interannual variations are simulated by means of those models. The simulation results show that all the three models have made very good hindcasting for the nine El Nino events since 1951. In order to test the reliability of the open loop threshold model, extrapolated forecast was made for the period of Jan. 1986-Feb. 1987. It can be seen from the forecasting that the model could forecast well the beginning and strengthening stages of the recent El Nino event (1986-1987). Correlation coefficients of the estimations to observations are resp     

1992／1993南极夏季长城湾表层水营养盐的月变化特征

１９９２／１９９３中国第九次南极考察队长城站夏季考察期间，对长城湾表层水等无机磷和无机氮营养盐类的月变化特征进行了现场考察。对营养直疃变化的相关民生，营养赴变化与生物活动的关系及与世界其化海域营养盐水平的比较等进行了讨论。结果表明，长城湾夏季表层水营养盐在１月浓度最低，在３月则最高，陆地淡水对湾内营养盐含量的增加没有明显贡献，无机磷与氨氮，硝酸盐氮的变化呈明显的正相关关系；亚硝酸盐始终处于较低的稳     

Artificial neural networks and their application to assessment of ultimate strength of plates with pitting corrosion

The potential for the structural capability degrading effects of both corrosion and fatigue induced cracks are of profound importance and must be both fully understood and reflected in vessel's inspection and maintenance programme. Corrosion has been studied and quantified by many researchers, however its effect on structural integrity is still subject to uncertainty, particularly with regards to localized corrosion. The present study is focused on assessing the effects of localized pitting corrosion on the ultimate strength of unstiffened plates. Over 265 non-linear finite-element analyses of panels with various locations and sizes of pitting corrosion have been carried out. The results indicate that the length, breadth and depth of pit corrosion have weakening effects on the ultimate strength of the plates while plate slenderness has only marginal effect on strength reduction. Transverse location of pit corrosion is also an important factor determining the amount of strength reduction. When corrosion spreads transversely on both edges, it has the most deteriorating effect on strength. In addition, artificial neural network (ANN) method is applied to derive a formula to predict ultimate strength reduction of locally corroded plates. It is found out that the proposed formulae can accurately predict the ultimate strength of locally corroded plates under uniaxial in-plane compression.     

基于高分卫星遥感数据的冀东地区矿山开发现状及环境问题研究

为了基本查明冀东地区矿产资源开发过程中占损土地、恢复治理和矿山环境现状及变化趋势,利用国产高分遥感卫星数据作为主要数据源,辅以野外调查和走访,对该区矿产资源开发和矿山环境问题进行了调查与研究。在广泛收集基础地质资料和遥感资料基础上,结合野外验证建立了该区矿山开发占地的解译标志; 利用ArcGIS平台对矿山占损土地进行了统计与变化分析; 对区内采矿引起的植被破坏、水体污染和采空沉陷等系列矿山环境问题进行了调查与研究。结果表明: ①区内2016年度矿山占损土地总面积为49 755.47 hm²,占研究区总面积的2.26%,且有逐年扩大趋势; ②相较开发占损土地状况,区内矿山环境恢复治理程度低,治理进程滞后,2016年治理率仅为4.7%; ③区内206个金属矿开采点距离重要水源较近,对水体安全构成威胁; ④采矿引起的采空沉陷面积较大,影响周边村庄和生态环境稳定性,直接影响区域总面积达24 351 hm²; ⑤国产高分遥感卫星数据具有空间分辨率高、快速、经济等特点,在矿山开发占地和矿山环境调查研究中可发挥重要作用。     

基于T2WELL的U型地热井供暖潜力数值模拟

为了了解U型井式闭循环地热系统的可持续利用能力,探究场地内利用U型井式闭循环地热系统开发地热能用于供暖的可行性,以及地热井长期运行下的产能状态和不同影响因素的作用规律,设计合理的地热能开采方案。采用数值模拟方法,以邯郸东部平原地区试验井的短期实测数据为基础,以多相多组分井筒-储层耦合流动模拟程序T2WELL为工具,开展场地尺度U型井长期换热数值模拟。研究结果显示：U型井式闭循环地热系统水平井段长度为400～500 m,循环流速和注入温度分别设置为80 m3/h和20 ℃左右时,可以实现地热能的可持续开采,20 a平均提热功率能满足供暖需求,采用该种方式进行供暖具备较高的可行性。