Temporal variation of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin

A total of 269 tropical storms and hurricanes originated in the North Atlantic basin from 1960–1989. Of these, 76 made landfall on the continental United states. This study divides the 76 tropical storms into their month of formation. Seasonal shifts in the principal areas of tropical cyclone formation over the Atlantic basin have been recognized for many decades. The results of the study suggest that the early and late season tropical cyclones develop in areas which are first affected by the position of the sun, resulting in an increase in water temperatures. These cyclones normally make landfall along the Gulf Coast and usually are of low intensity. Formation areas shift eastward in mid-summer with a slight increase in intensity. By late August and early September, the formation areas have extended to the Cape Verde Islands. These storms tend to strike the east coast of the US and are normally more intense. By the end of the hurricane season, the primary formation area has shifted back to the Gulf of Mexico, with low intensity storms affecting the Gulf Coast.     

Über den Stoffhaushalt der Donau und ihrer Nebenflüsse

Zusammenfassung Nach einem kurzen überblich über frühere stoffwechseldynamische Untersuchungen im Donauraum nach dem Stand der Monographie werden neuere, teilweise noch unver?ffentlichte Ergebnisse rum?nischer, ungarischer und deutscher Arbeitsgruppen zusammenfassend referiert. Diese neueren Untersuchungen betreffen die Nitrifikationsprozesse im Bistritza-Stausee Bicaz (Rum?nien) sowie Prim?rproduktion und biogene Belüftung der Donau im Bereich von Alsog?d-Budapest (Ungarn) und im Bereich von Kelheim-Jochenstein (BR Deutschland). Dieser Bericht wird erg?nzt durch einige Befunde biochemischer Untersuchungen an anderen grossen Flüssen, und hieraus wird ein Programm für weitere gemeinsame stoffwechseldynamische Forschungen im Donauraum abgeleitet.

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Summary After a short survey on former investigations concerning the dynamic cycle of elements in river Danube, newer, partially unpublished results of Rumanian, Hungarian and German working groups are digested. These newer investigations concern the nitrification processes in the Bistritza dam of Bicaz (Rumania) and primary production as well as biogenic reaeration of river Danube in the region of Alsog?d-Budapest (Hungary) and Kelheim-Jochenstein (German Fed. Rep.). This survey is completed by some results of biochemical investigations at other great rivers and from that a programme for further cooperation concerning the biochemical questions of dynamic cycle of substances in river Danube is derived.

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Dem unvergessenen Donauforscher Prof. Dr. Endre Dudich, Budapest, gewidmet.     

The sunspot areas and the relative sunspot numbers

Summary Within each sunspot cycle the yearly means (A) of the daily sunspot areas increase faster than the corresponding sunspot numbers (R) from the minimum to the maximum of solar activity and then decrease also faster than these numbers till the next minimum. Relation (A)=16.7 (R), frequently used so far, is approximately valid only for the years in the vicinity of the sunspot maximum. Instead of that, author gives the relations: for the years preceding the sunspot maximum, for the years following the sunspot maximum, wherea andb are constants,T _R is the time of rise of the corresponding sunspot cycle expressed in years, andk takes the valuek=0 for the year of maximum solar activity andk=1, 2, 3, ... for the first, second, third ... year preceding or following that of maximum solar activity. The monthly means of the daily sunspot areas show a similar variation, but in this case the ratioq=AR varies with a greater amplitude both within each sunspot cycle and from cycle to cycle. The values ofq corresponding to all months of a given year in the sunspot cycle are contained between two limits depending on the time of rise.

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Résumé Les valeurs moyennes (A) des aires diurnes des taches solaires à chaque année depuis 1878 augmentent plus rapidement du minimum vers le maximum de l'activité solaire que les nombres de Wolf correspondants (R). Elles diminuent aussi plus rapidement que les nombres de Wolf du maximum vers le minimum de l'activité solaire. La relation adoptée (A)=16.7 (R) ne s'applique pas avec une approximation satisfaisante que seulement pour les années voisines celle du maximum de l'activité solaire. L'auteur propose les relations: pour les années qui précédent le maximum, pour les années qui suivent le maximum, oùa, b sont des constantes,T _R le temps d'ascension du cycle correspondant exprimé en années et la parametrek prend la valeurk=0 à l'année du maximum de l'activité solaire etk=1, 2, 3 ... pour les années qui précédent et qui suivent celle du maximum. Les valeurs moyennes des aires diurnes des taches à chaque mois, suivent la même marche mais dans ce cas le rapportq=AR present des larges variations. Il oscille pourtant extre deux limites qui dependent du temps d'ascension.

     

The squeezing potential of rock around tunnels: Theory and prediction with examples taken from Japan

Summary Large deformations of surrounding media around tunnels are often encountered during excavations in rocks with squeezing characteristics. These deformations may sometimes continue for a long period of time. Predictions of deformations of tunnels in such grounds are urgently needed, not because of stability concerns, but also of their sevicability. In the present study, the squeezing phenomenon of rock around tunnels and its mechanism and associated factors are first clarified by carefully studying failures of tunnels, and a survey of tunnels in squeezing rocks in Japan is presented and its results are summarised. Then, a practical method is proposed to predic the squeezing potential and deformation of tunnels in squeezing rock and this method has beeen applied to actual tunnelling projects, where squeezing problems were encountered, to check its applicability and validity. Finally, an extension of this method to the time-dependent behaviour of squeezing rocks is given and an application of this method to an actual tunnel is presented.     

Results of a 36-hour storm surge prediction of the North Sea for 3 January 1976 on the basis of numerical models

Summary To explore the feasibility of forescasting North Sea storm surges by integrating numerically a combined atmospheric-oceanographic physical model, the severe storm and the resulting water levels occurring on 3 January 1976 were simulated as a first step into this direction. For this purpose, the atmospheric model was run with a resolution of 8 levels in the vertical and a horizontal grid spacing of 1.4° in latitude and 2.8° in longitude on the hemisphere. The initial conditions are based upon observations of 2 January 1976, 12 GMT, i.e. about 24 hours before the storm reached its greatest intensity in the southern parts of the North Sea.The surface wind predicted by the atmospheric model was converted into stress values through a bulk formula which then entered the vertically integrated North Sea model, to yield the desired water elevations in a 22 km-grid. Moreover, also the observed wind, stemming from a careful re-analysis of the storm situation, was handled in the same way. The numerically obtained results were compared with gauge measurements at a number of coastal stations.

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Ergebnisse einer 36stündigen Vorhersage der Nordsee-Sturmflut am 3. Januar 1976 aufgrund von numerischen Modellen

Zusammenfassung Zur Untersuchung der Möglichkeiten, Sturmfluten mit physikalischen Modellen der Atmosphäre und der Nordsee vorherzusagen, wurde als erster Schritt in dieser Richtung die schwere Sturmflut an der deutschen Nordseeküste vom 3. Januar 1976 nachgerechnet. Hierzu wurde das im Sonderforschungsbereich 94 entwickelte Atmosphärenmodell auf der Grundlage der hydro- und thermodynamischen Gleichungen mit einer Auflösung von 8 Flächen in der Vertikalen sowie 1,4° in der geographischen Breite und 2,8° in der geographischen Länge auf der gesamten Nordhalbkugel über 36 Stunden numerisch integriert. Als Eingangsdaten dienten die Beobachtungen vom 2. Januar 1976, 12 Uhr. dieser Termin liegt ca. 24 Stunden vor Eintritt des stärksten Sturmes im Bereich der Deutschen Bucht.Die auf diese Weise prognostizierte Windverteilung wurde über der Nordsee in Schubspannungswerte überführt, woraus das Nordseemodell mit den hydrodynamischen Gleichungen die Wasserstandswerte in einem 22-km-Netz berechnete. In entsprechender Weise wurde mit einem aus Beobachtungen während dieses Zeitraums gewonnenen Windfeld verfahren; diesem lag eine besonders sorgfältige, nachträglich angefertigte Analyse des Seewetteramts Hamburg zugrunde. Die so errechneten Wasserstände sind dann mit Pegelmessungen verglichen worden.

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Résultats d'une prédiction d'onde de tempête de 36 heures de la mer du Nord pour le 3 janvier 1976 sur la base de modèles numériques

Résumé Afin d'étudier la possibilité de prévior les ondes de tempête en mer du Nord en intégrant numériquement un modèle physique combiné atmosphère-océan, la forte tempête du 3 janvier 1976 et des niveaux d'eau qui en ont résulté ont été simulés comme premier pas dans cette voie. Dans ce but, on a fait fonctionner le modèle atmosphérique avec une résolution de 8 niveaux dans le plan vertical et un réseau horizontal aux pas de 1,4° en latitude et de 2,8° en longitude sur l'hémisphère. Les conditions initiales sont basées sur les observations du 2 janvier 1976 à 12h GMT, c'est-à-dire environ 24 heures avant que la tempête n'atteignît sa plus forte intensité dans les parties méridionales de la mer du Nord.Le vent en surface prédit par le modèle atmosphérique était converti par l'intermédiaire d'une formule globale en valeurs de tensions qui étaient alors introduites dans le modèle de la mer du Nord intégré verticalement, pour obtenir les hauteurs d'eau désirées, dans un réseau de 22 km de côté. En outre, le vent observé, issu d'une nouvelle analyse soignée de la situation de tempête, était aussi traité de la même manière. Les résultats obtenus numériquement furent comparés aux mesures fournies par les marégraphes en un certain nombre de stations côtières.

     

Urban water supply planning and management in Nigeria

The gap between water need and supply has widened steadily in Nigeria's urban centres despite continuous efforts made to develop the nation's vast surface and groundwater resources. Less than 0.5% of the total water resource potential has been developed for consumption, and the per capita water supply for all uses is only 61 litres per day. Acute water shortages afflict the inhabitants of the towns and cities. The bulk of available water supplies is unmetered; where metered, ridiculously low rates are changed. Thus, there is a great need for management policy that aims at financial viability and economic efficiency. More realistic water rates should be charged in order to raise the much-needed revenue to meet increasing production and distribution costs.     

Combating famine by grain storage in Western Sudan

Traditional grain storage used to be an effective mechanism to combat famine in the rural areas of W Sudan. Of late, this mechanism has failed to function and a severe famine took place in 1984–1985. This paper endeavours to highlight this crisis, show the traditional methods of grain storage and point out to ways of retrieving grain storage systems to start again on a less vulnerable basis. An assessment of grain storage requirements under the new conditions where both market and subsistence economy are effective in rural areas is made for the different ecological zones of W Sudan.     

Water in garnet of garnetite (metarodingite) and eclogite from the Erzgebirge and the Lepontine Alps

Little is known about water in nominally anhydrous minerals of orogenic garnet peridotite and enclosed metabasic rocks. This study is focused on peridotite-hosted eclogite and garnetite (metarodingite) from the Erzgebirge (EG), Germany, and the Lepontine Alps (LA), Switzerland. Newly discovered, peridotite-hosted eclogite in the Erzgebirge occurs in the same ultra-high pressure (UHP) unit as gneiss-hosted coesite eclogite, from which it is petrologically indistinguishable. Garnet is present in all mafic and ultramafic high pressure (HP) rocks providing for an ideal proxy to compare the H₂O content of the different rock types. Garnet composition is very similar in EG and LA samples and depends on the rock type. Garnet from garnetite, compared to eclogite, contains more CaO (garnetite: 10.5–16.5 wt%; eclogite: 5–11 wt%) and is also characterized by an anomalous REE distribution. In contrast, the infrared (IR) spectra of garnet from both rock types reveal the same OH absorption bands that are also identical to those of previously studied peridotitic garnet from the same locations. Two groups of IR bands, SW I (3,650 ± 10 cm⁻¹) and SW II (3,570–3,630 cm⁻¹) are ascribed to structural hydroxyl (colloquially ‘water’). A third, broad band is present in about half of the analysed garnet domains and related to molecular water (MW) in submicroscopic fluid inclusions. The primary content of structural H₂O, preserved in garnet domains without fluid inclusions (and MW bands), varies systematically—depending on both the location and the rock type. Garnet from EG rocks contains more water compared to LA samples, and garnet from garnetite (EG: 121–241 wt.ppm H₂O; LA: 23–46 wt.ppm) hosts more water than eclogitic garnet (EG: 84 wt.ppm; LA: 4–11 wt.ppm). Higher contents of structural water (SW) are observed in domains with molecular water, in which the SW II band (being not restricted to HP conditions) is simultaneously enhanced. This implies that fluid influx during decompression not only led to fluid inclusions but also favoured the uptake of secondary SW. The results signify that garnet from all EG and LA samples was originally H₂O-undersaturated. Combining the data from eclogite, garnetite and previously studied peridotite, H₂O and CaO are positively correlated, pointing to the same degree of H₂O-undersaturation at peak metamorphism in all rock types. This ubiquitous water-deficiency cannot be reconciled with the derivation of any of these rocks from the lowermost part of the mantle wedge that was in contact with the subducting plate. This agrees with the previously inferred abyssal origin for part of the rocks from the LA (Cima di Gagnone). A similar origin has to be invoked for the Erzgebirge UHP unit. We suggest that all mafic and ultramafic rocks of this unit not only shared the same metamorphic evolution but also a common protolith origin, most probably on the ocean floor. This inference is supported by the presence of peridotite-hosted garnetite, representing metamorphosed rodingite.     

Sui nuclei di condensazione di origine marittima

Riassunto Viene discussa l'obiezione fondamentale fatta daSimpson contro l'ipotesi diKöhler sulla prevalenza dei nuclei salini di origine marina. Si richiama l'attenzione sul numero molto grande di nuclei che si formano nel gorgoglìo di aria in acqua di mare e si ricordano i numeri ottenuti sperimentalmente dagli AA. in altra epoca. L'efficacia del fenomeno di spruzamento in atto nelle burrasche viene pure illustrata.

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Summary The fundamental objection, opposed bySimpson against the hypothesis ofKöhler concerning the prevalency of oceanic saline condensation nuclei is discussed. Attention is attracted upon experiments proving that the bubbling, also limited, in sea water produce great number of nuclei. The efficacy of water spraying is likewise discussed.

     

Bioclima di Venezia: Un ventennio di ricerche fenologiche

Riassunto Si conferma, con un nuovo settennio di osservazioni, il valore già altre volte determinato dall'A. dellatemperatura critica di antèsi per ilTaxus baccata. E con un ventennio di osservazioni si determina il valore dell'analogo elemento biologico per ilPunica granatum.

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Summary We confirm with a new septennium of observations the value that has been already other times determined by the author of the critical temperature of antèsi for the Taxus baccata and with a period of twenty years of observations we determine the value of the analogous biologic element for the Punica granatum.