Frequency of quasi-geostrophic modes on hexagonal grids

Summary Finite-difference analysis of Rossby modes has been performed for two staggered hexagonal grids. The solutions are compared with those obtained in analytical case and for rectangular grids. The result for one of the selected hexagonal grids better fits to the analytical solution then the results for the other considered grids. The obtained results may contribute to better understanding of the appropriateness of hexagonal grids in atmospheric and oceanographic modeling and numerical computations.With 6 Figures     

Modeling of changes in thermal bioclimate: examples based on urban spaces in Freiburg, Germany

The Place of the Old Synagogue is a popular place in the city center of Freiburg, a medium-sized city in southwest Germany. It is going to be redesigned soon. In this paper the impact of urban street design and surface material on human thermal comfort is analyzed using the example of the Place of the Old Synagogue. The models SkyHelios, RayMan, and ENVI-met were applied to quantify and qualify the changes. All three models are freely available. Their combination allows analysis of development in long-term conditions, as well as changes in spatial distribution of thermal comfort, as well as of heat stress in summer. Results show that the models can provide valuable information. About the Place of the Old Synagogue, quantitative results show that the period with heat stress will become longer, while the intensity of heat stress increases. The spatial results show that the most significant changes are due to changes in shading. Nevertheless, an increase in thermal stress up to 10 °C is calculated for areas, where ground coverage changes from grass to pavement.     

Compliance for uncertain inventories via probabilistic/fuzzy comparison of alternatives

A direct comparison among highly uncertain inventories of emissions is inadequate and may lead to paradoxes. This issue is of particular importance in the case of greenhouse gases. This paper reviews the methods for the comparison of uncertain inventories in the context of compliance checking. The problem is treated as a comparison of uncertain alternatives. It provides a categorization and ranking of the inventories which can induce compliance checking conditions. Two groups of techniques to compare uncertain estimates are considered in the paper: probabilistic and fuzzy approaches. They show certain similarities which are revealed and stressed throughout the paper. The group of methods most suitable for the compliance purpose is distinguished. They introduce new conditions for fulfilling compliance, depending on inventory uncertainty. These new conditions considerably change the present approach, where only the reported values of inventories are accounted for.     

Long-term effects of anthropogenic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions simulated with a complex earth system model

A new complex earth system model consisting of an atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean general circulation model, a three-dimensional ice sheet model, a marine biogeochemistry model, and a dynamic vegetation model was used to study the long-term response to anthropogenic carbon emissions. The prescribed emissions follow estimates of past emissions for the period 1751–2000 and standard IPCC emission scenarios up to the year 2100. After 2100, an exponential decrease of the emissions was assumed. For each of the scenarios, a small ensemble of simulations was carried out. The North Atlantic overturning collapsed in the high emission scenario (A2) simulations. In the low emission scenario (B1), only a temporary weakening of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic is predicted. The moderate emission scenario (A1B) brings the system close to its bifurcation point, with three out of five runs leading to a collapsed North Atlantic overturning circulation. The atmospheric moisture transport predominantly contributes to the collapse of the deep water formation. In the simulations with collapsed deep water formation in the North Atlantic a substantial cooling over parts of the North Atlantic is simulated. Anthropogenic climate change substantially reduces the ability of land and ocean to sequester anthropogenic carbon. The simulated effect of a collapse of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic on the atmospheric CO₂ concentration turned out to be relatively small. The volume of the Greenland ice sheet is reduced, but its contribution to global mean sea level is almost counterbalanced by the growth of the Antarctic ice sheet due to enhanced snowfall. The modifications of the high latitude freshwater input due to the simulated changes in mass balance of the ice sheet are one order of magnitude smaller than the changes due to atmospheric moisture transport. After the year 3000, the global mean surface temperature is predicted to be almost constant due to the compensating effects of decreasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations due to oceanic uptake and delayed response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations before.     

The use of dual channel circular-polarization radar observations for remotely sensing storm electrification

Summary Observations of thunderstorms with a dual channel circularpolarization radar have provided dramatic indications of the buildup of the electric field inside the storms and of the sudden collapse of the field at the time of lightning. The indications are obtained by coherently correlating the simultaneous returns in the right- and left-hand circular polarization channels of the radar, and follow up on the pioneering observations of this type by Hendry and McCormick (1976). The correlation is estimated and displayed in real time and the results enable one to predict when a storm has the potential for producing a lightning discharge, and often to anticipate the occurrence of individual discharges. The observations detect the presence of electrically aligned particles, believed to be small ice crystals, which are aligned by the electrostatic field of the storm. The aligned particles cause the radar signal to become progressively depolarized as it propagates through an alignment region, giving rise to correlated right- and left-circular polarization echoes. The alignment direction can be determined from the phase of the correlation and is found to be predominantly vertical, indicating a similar electric field orientation. Weaker horizontal alignment is often observed immediately following lightning discharges, consistent with the idea that the aligned particles are ice platelets which fall with horizontal orientation due to aerodynamic forces. The observations have been found to reveal the onset of strong electrification in developing storms and to indicate when decaying storms no longer have the potential to produce lightning. By compensating for signal-to-noise effects, the variation of the depolarization with range can be determined. This provides detailed pictures of the alignment regions which could be used as tracers of ice crystal populations in storms. The pictures also show the spatial variation of the alignment directions, raising the possibility of remotely mapping the storm electric field structure. Finally, the depolarization rate results readily enable one to distinguish between liquid and solid precipitation in the storms.With 7 Figures     

Catchment precipitation processes in the San Francisco valley in southern Ecuador: combined approach using high-resolution radar images and in situ observations

The precise estimation of precipitation quantities in tropical mountain regions is in great demand by ecological and hydrological studies, due to the heterogeneity of the rainfall distribution and the lack of meteorological station data. This study uses radar images and ground station data to provide the required high-resolution precipitation maps. Also wind data are taken into account, due to its influence on the precipitation formation and to demonstrate the relation between synoptic wind, topography and the precipitation distribution inside small mountain valleys. The study analyses the rainfall distribution and amounts of 4 days inside the San Francisco Valley, a small catchment in the tropical Andes of southern Ecuador, representing different seasons and the typical atmospheric flows, which are correlated to the annual precipitation map. The results show that the rainfall distribution and amounts are generally defined by the wind direction and velocity, besides the topographic location in relation to the main barriers and pathways. The dominant wind direction causes a division of the catchment in a wetter eastern and a dryer western part. Moreover, the annual seasons are reversed; the main rainy season for the eastern part occurs between June and August, while the western part reaches the precipitation maximum between January and March. This may have influence on the species composition at the different slopes and the annual hydrological cycle inside the catchment.