Knowledge-Driven and Data-Driven Fuzzy Models for Predictive Mineral Potential Mapping

In this paper, we describe new fuzzy models for predictive mineral potential mapping: (1) a knowledge-driven fuzzy model that uses a logistic membership function for deriving fuzzy membership values of input evidential maps and (2) a data-driven model, which uses a piecewise linear function based on quantified spatial associations between a set of evidential evidence features and a set of known mineral deposits for deriving fuzzy membership values of input evidential maps. We also describe a graphical defuzzification procedure for the interpretation of output fuzzy favorability maps. The models are demonstrated for mapping base metal deposit potential in an area in the south-central part of the Aravalli metallogenic province in the state of Rajasthan, western India. The data-driven and knowledge-driven models described in this paper predict potentially mineralized zones, which occupy less than 10% of the study area and contain at least 83% of the model and validation base metal deposits. A cross-validation of the favorability map derived from using one of the models with the favorability map derived from using the other model indicates a remarkable similarity in their results. Both models therefore are useful for predicting favorable zones to guide further exploration work.     

Shallow-marine sequences as the building blocks of stratigraphy: insights from numerical modelling

Two types of depositional sequences can be defined within the sequence stratigraphic framework: the parasequence and the high‐frequency sequence. Both sequences consist of stacked regressive and transgressive deposits. However, a parasequence forms under conditions of overall sea‐level rise, whereas a high‐frequency sequence forms as the sea level oscillates which results in typical forced regressive deposits during sea‐level fall. Both depositional sequences may develop over comparable temporal (10–100 kyr) and spatial (1–20 km wide and 1–40 m thick) scales. Numerical modelling is used to compare the architecture, preservation potential, internal volumes, bounding surfaces, condensed and expanded sections and facies assemblages of parasequences and high‐frequency sequences. Deposits originating from transgression are less pronounced than their regressive counterparts and consist of either preserved backbarrier deposits or shelf deposits. Shoreface deposits are not preserved during transgression. The second half of the paper evaluates in detail the preservation potential of backbarrier deposits and proposes a mechanism that explains the occurrence of both continuous and discontinuous barrier retreat in terms of varying rates of sea‐level rise and sediment supply. The key to this mechanism is the maximum washover capacity, which plays a part in both barrier shoreline retreat and backbarrier‐lagoonal shoreline retreat. If these two shorelines are not balanced, then the retreat of the coastal system as a whole is discontinuous and in time barrier overstep may take place.     

The carbon cycle and biogeochemical dynamics in lake sediments

The concentrations of organic carbon (OC) and CaCO3 in lake sediments are often inversely related. This relation occurs in surface sediments from different locations in the same lake, surface sediments from different lakes, and with depth in Holocene sediments. Where data on accumulation rates are available, the relation holds for organic carbon and CaCO3 accumulation rates as well. An increase of several percent OC is accompanied by a decrease of several tens of percent CaCO3 indicating that the inverse relation is not due to simple dilution of one component by another. It appears from core data that once the OC concentration in the sediments becomes greater than about 12%, the CO2 produced by decomposition of that OC and production of organic acids lowers the pH of anoxic pore waters enough to dissolve any CaCO3 that reaches the sediment-water interface. In a lake with a seasonally anoxic hypolimnion, processes in the water column also can produce an inverse relation between OC and CaCO3 over time. If productivity of the lake increases, the rain rate of OC from the epilimnion increases. Biogenic removal of CO2 and accompanying increase in pH also may increase the production of CaCO3. However, the decomposition of organic matter in the hypolimnion will decrease the pH of the hypolimnion causing greater dissolution of CaCO3 and therefore a decrease in the rain rate of CaCO3 to the sediment-water interface.     

Geomorphology, Stratigraphy, and Radiocarbon Chronology of LlanquihueDrift in the Area of the Southern Lake District, Seno Reloncaví, and Isla Grande de Chiloé, Chile

Glacial geomorphologic features composed of (or cut into) Llanquihue drift delineate former Andean piedmont glaciers in the region of the southern Chilean Lake District, Seno Reloncav', Golfo de Ancud, and northern Golfo Corcovado during the last glaciation. These landforms include extensive moraine belts, main and subsidiary outwash plains, kame terraces, and meltwater spillways. Numerous radiocarbon dates document Andean ice advances into the moraine belts during the last glacial maximum (LGM) at 29,363–29,385 ¹⁴C yr BP , 26,797 ¹⁴C yr BP , 22,295–22,570 ¹⁴C yr BP , and 14,805–14,869 ¹⁴C yr BP . Advances may also have culminated at close to 21,000 ¹⁴C yr BP , shortly before 17,800 ¹⁴C yr BP , and shortly before 15,730 ¹⁴C yr BP . The maximum at 22,295–22,567 ¹⁴C yr BP was probably the most extensive of the LGM in the northern part of the field area, whereas that at 14,805–14,869 ¹⁴C yr BP was the most extensive in the southern part. Snowline depression during these maxima was about 1000 m. Andean piedmont glaciers did not advance into the outer Llanquihue moraine belts during the portion of middle Llanquihue time between 29,385 ¹⁴C yr BP and more than 39,660 ¹⁴C yr BP . In the southern part of the field area, the Golfo de Ancud lobe, as well as the Golfo Corcovado lobe, achieved a maximum at the outermost Llanquihue moraine prior to 49,892 ¹⁴C yr BP . Pollen analysis of the Taiquemmire, which is located on this moraine, suggests that the old Llanquihue advance probably corresponds to the time of marine isotope stage 4. The implication is that the Andean snowline was then depressed as much as during the LGM. A Llanquihue-age glacier expansion into the outer moraine belts also occurred more than about 40,000 ¹⁴C yr BP for the Lago Llanquihue piedmont glacier.     

Paleoecology of The Southern Chilean Lake District-Isla Grande de Chiloé During Middle–late Llanquihue Glaciation and Deglaciation

Subantarctic Parkland and Subantarctic–North Patagonian Evergreen Forest, embracing >40,000 ¹⁴ C years of middle and late Llanquihue glaciation, are reconstructed from pollen contained in multiple interdrift deposits and cores of lake sediments. The subantarctic plant communities at low elevations have since been replaced by temperate Valdivian Evergreen Forest. Data in support of the vegetation reconstruction derive from close-interval sampling (>1400 pollen analysed stratigraphic levels) and high-resolution chronology (>200 AMS and conventional radiocarbon-dated horizons). Pollen sequences are from 15 sites, eight of which are exposures and seven mires, located in relation to lobes of piedmont glaciers that occupied Lago Llanquihue, Seno Reloncav', Golfo de Ancud, and the east-central sector of Isla Grande de Chiloí at the northern limit of the Golfo Corcovado lobe. Recurring episodes of grass maxima representing Subantarctic Parkland, when grass and scrub became widespread among patches of southern beech (Nothofagus), bear a relationship to glacial advances. The implication of the maxima, prominent with advances at 22,400 and 14,800 ¹⁴C yr BP during late Llanquihue glaciation in marine oxygen-isotope Stage 2, is of successive intervals of cold climate with summer temperatures estimated at 6–8°C below the modern mean. The earliest recorded maximum at >50,000 ¹⁴C yr BP is possibly during late Stage 4. At the time of middle Llanquihue glaciation in Stage 3, cool, humid interstades on Isla Grande de Chiloé with Subantarctic Evergreen Forest, which under progressive cooling after 47,000 ¹⁴C yr BP was increasingly replaced by parkland. During stepwise deglaciation, when transitional beech woodland communities supplanting parkland became diversified by formation of thermophilous North Patagonian Evergreen Forest, warming in the order of 5–6°C was abrupt after 14,000 ¹⁴C yr BP . Closed-canopy North Patagonian Evergreen Forest was established by 12,500 ¹⁴C yr BP . Later, after c. 12,000 until 10,000 ¹⁴C yr BP , depending on location, forest at low elevations became modified by expansion of a cold-tolerant element indicative of ≥2–3°C cooler climate. This stepwise climatic sequence is seen at all late-glacial sites. Cool, humid interstadial conditions, punctuated by cold stadial climate, are characteristic of the last ≥40,000 ¹⁴C years of the Pleistocene at midlatitude in the Southern Hemisphere. Pollen sequences from southern South America and terrestrial–marine records from the New Zealand–Tasmania sector express a broad measure of synchrony of vegetational/climatic change for marine oxygen-isotope Stages 2–3. The data, combined with the timing of glacial maxima in the Southern Andes, Southern Alps of New Zealand, and in the Northern Hemisphere, are indicative of synchronous, millennial-scale, midlatitude climatic changes in the polar hemispheres.     

In search of an elusive Antarctic circumpolar wave in sea ice extents: 1978–1996

For ease in discerning an Antarctic circumpolar wave in the perimeter of the ice pack, we construct a time series of the sea ice extents (essentially the area within the ice perimeter) in 1-degree longitudinal sectors for the period 1978–1996, as observed with the multichannel microwave imagers on board the NASA Nimbus 7 and the DOD (Dept. of Defense) DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) F8. F11, and F13 satellites. After converting the time series into complex numbers by means of a Hilbert transform, we decompose the time series of the 360 sectors into its complex principal components (CPCs), effectively separating the spatial and temporal values. Then we decompose the real and imaginary parts of the temporal portions of the first three CPCs (complex principal compenents) by Empirical Mode Decomposition into their intrinsic modes, each representing a narrow frequency band, resulting in a collection of three CPCs for each intrinsic mode. Finally, we reconstruct the data in two different ways. First, we low-pass filter the data by combining all of the intrinsic modes of each CPC with periods longer than two years, which we designate as low-pass filtered. Next, we select the intrinsic mode of each CPC with periods of approximately four years, which we designate the quasiquadrennial (QQ) modes. The low-pass filtered time series shows eastward propagating azimuthal motion in the Ross and Weddell Seas, but no clearly circumpolar motion. The QQ time series, on the other hand, clearly shows castward propagating circumpolar waves, but with occasional retrograde motion to the west.     

Adjustment of a drainage network to capture induced base-level change: an example from the Sorbas Basin, SE Spain

Quaternary catchments in the south of the Sorbas Basin, SE Spain have been affected by two regionally significant river captures. The river captures were triggered by changes in regional gradients associated with sustained Quaternary uplift in the region of 160 m Ma⁻¹. The first capture occurred in the early Pleistocene and re-routed 15% of the original Sorbas Basin drainage into the Carboneras Basin to the south. The second occurred in the late Pleistocene and re-routed 73% of the original Sorbas Basin drainage to the east. This latter capture had dramatic consequences for base-level in the Sorbas Basin master drainage. Local base-level was lowered by 90 m at the capture site, 50 m at 7 km upstream and 25 m at 13 km upstream of the site. The base-level change instigated a complex re-organisation of the drainage networks in systems tributary to the master drainage over the ensuing period (some 100 ka). After the capture, drainage systems closer to the capture site experienced a tenfold increase in incision rates over most of their network. Those located some 13 km upstream of the capture site experienced a fivefold increase in incision, although in this instance, the changes do not appear to have propagated to the headwater regions of the drainage nets. The sensitivity of individual catchments was largely governed by geological controls (structure and lithology). The detailed network evolution in the most sensitive areas can be traced by reconstructing former drainage pathways using abandoned drainage cols and the alignment and degree of incision of the drainage networks. Three main stages of evolution can be identified which record the progressive spread of base-level changes from the master drainage. These are Stage 1 (pre-capture): original south-to-north consequent drainage; Stage 2 (early stage, post capture): aggressive subsequent southwest-to-northeast and east–west drainage developed along structural lineaments first in the east of the area (Stage 2a), and later in the west of the area (Stage 2b); and Stage 3 (late stage, post capture): obsequent drainage developing on the topography of the Stage 2 drainage. All stages of the network evolution are associated with drainage re-routing as a function of river capture at a variety of scales. The results highlight the complex response of the fluvial system, and the very different geomorphological histories of adjacent catchments, emphasising the need for regional approaches for examining long-term changes in fluvial systems.     

The effects of post-seismic motions on the moment of inertia of a stratified viscoelastic earth with an asthenosphere

Summary. We give the analytical formulation for calculating the transient displacement of fields produced by earthquakes in a stratified, selfgravitating, incompressible, viscoelastic earth. We have evaluated the potential of viscous creep in the asthenosphere in exciting the Chandler wobble by a four-layer model consisting of an elastic lithosphere, a two-layer Maxwell viscoelastic mantle, and an inviscid core. The seismic source is modelled as an inhomogeneous boundary condition, which involves a jump condition of the displacement fields across the fault in the lithosphere. The response fields are derived from the solution of a two-point boundary value problem, using analytical propagator matrices in the Laplace-transformed domain. Transient flows produced by post-seismic rebound are found to be confined within the asthenosphere for local viscosity values less than 10²⁰P. The viscosity of the mantle below the low-viscosity channel is kept at 10²²P. For low-viscosity zones with widths greater than about 100 km and asthenospheric viscosities less than 10¹⁸P, we find that viscoelasticity can amplify the perturbations in the moment of inertia by a factor of 4–5 above the elastic contribution within the time span of the wobble period. We have carried out a comparative study on the changes of the inertia tensor from forcings due to surface loading and to faulting. In general the global responses from faulting are found to be much more sensitive to the viscosity structure of the asthenosphere than those produced from surface loading.