Are natural hazards temporally random?

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.     

Properties of star formation in the spiral arms of barred galaxies

It is assumed that the two-fold disc-wide symmetry of spirals is caused by density waves, but also the potential of a bar component may have a significant influence on structural properties. The strength of the bar component appears to be anti-correlated with the degree of symmetry of star-forming regions in the spiral arms (Rozas et al., 1998). We present new results of R and Hα surface photometry of a sample of bright barred spirals. A photometric decompositon of the galaxy components is carried out in order to make a more accurate measurement of the strength of the bar and its interrelation to gas and stars in the disc. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Kaidun meteorite: Clasts of alkaline‐rich fractionated materials

Abstract— Clasts of alkaline (the second find in meteorites) and subalkaline rocks were found in the Kaidun meteorite. One of them (#d4A) is a large crystal of albite with inclusions of fluorapatite, arfvedsonite, aenigmatite, and wilkinsonite. The two latter minerals were previously unknown in meteorites. Another clast (#d[3–5]D) has a melt crystallization texture of mainly feldspar (oligoclase) composition and contains relict grains of both high‐Ca and low‐Ca pyroxene and fluorapatite. The mineralogical characteristics of these clasts suggest a genetic relationship and an origin from the same parent body. The textural and mineralogical characteristics of the clasts indicate origin by extensive igneous differentiation. Such processes most likely took place in a rather large differentiated body. The material of clast #d(3–5)D is similar in some mineralogical respects to basaltic shergottites.     

Cepheid Limb Darkening Models for the VLTI

We present a new method to compute wavelength- and phase-dependent limb darkening corrections for classical Cepheids. These corrections are derived from hydrodynamic simulations and radiative transfer modeling with a full set of atomic and molecular opacities. Comparison with hydrostatic models having the same stellar parameters show a larger limb darkening for most phases in our models, and temporal variations related to the hydrodynamics of the stellar pulsation. Weassess the implications of our results with respect to the geometric Baade-Wesselink method, which uses interferometric measurements of Cepheid angular diameters to determine their distances and radii. The relevance of the hydrodynamic effects predicted by our model on the limb darkening of pulsating Cepheids is finally discussed in terms of the predicted capabilities of the VLTI. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Isobaric cooling and anti-clockwise P–T paths in the Variscan Odenwald Crystalline Complex, Germany

Mineral assemblages in Al₂O₃‐rich, SiO₂‐ and K₂O‐poor metapelitic rocks from the western Odenwald Crystalline Complex (Variscan Mid‐German Crystalline Rise, southern Germany) include corundum, spinel, cordierite, sillimanite, garnet and staurolite. Quartz is absent from almost all samples. Therefore, the applicability of conventional geothermobarometry is very limited or even impossible. Detailed petrographic investigation on selected samples permits inference of the sequence of appearance and disappearance of several mineral assemblages. The recognition of such partial re‐equilibration stages and their associated mineral assemblages, together with mineral stabilities predicted from KFMASH pseudosections, enables the determination of the pressure‐temperature (P–T) trajectories experienced by these rocks during the Variscan metamorphism. The rocks were metamorphosed under low‐P/high‐T conditions and underwent an anti‐clockwise P–T evolution. A pressure increase from about 2 kbar to 4 ± 0.5 kbar was accompanied by heating. Peak metamorphic conditions were reached at pressures of 4 ± 0.5 kbar and temperatures of at least 640 °C, probably even higher. The retrograde evolution is characterised by near‐isobaric cooling from ≥ 640 °C to approximately 550 °C. The rocks underwent the anti‐clockwise evolution in a subduction‐related magmatic arc setting. The close spatial association of the low‐P/high‐T rocks with recently discovered metabasic eclogites in the eastern part of the Odenwald Crystalline Complex may indicate a fossil paired metamorphic belt in the Central European Variscides.     

Intermediate-age Galactic open clusters: fundamental parameters of NGC 2627

Charge-coupled device (CCD) photometry in the Johnson V , Kron–Cousins I and Washington CMT ₁ systems is presented in the field of the poorly known open cluster NGC 2627. Four independent Washington abundance indices yield a mean cluster metallicity of  [Fe/H]=−0.12 ± 0.08  , which is compatible with the existence of a radial gradient in the Galactic disc. The resultant colour–magnitude diagrams indicate that the cluster is an intermediate-age object of 1.4 Gyr. Based on the best fits of the Geneva group's isochrones to the ( V , V − I ) and  ( T ₁, C − T ₁)  diagrams, we estimate   E ( V − I ) = 0.25 ± 0.05  and   V − M_V = 11.80 ± 0.25  for  log  t = 9.15  , and   E ( C − T ₁) = 0.23 ± 0.07  and   T ₁− M _{T 1}= 11.85 ± 0.25  for  log  t = 9.10  , respectively, assuming solar metal content. The derived reddening value   E ( C − T ₁)  implies   E ( B − V ) = 0.12 ± 0.07  and a distance from the Sun of  2.0 ± 0.4 kpc  . Using the WEBDA data base and the available literature, we re-examined the overall properties of all the open clusters with ages between 0.6 and 2.5 Gyr. We identified peaks of cluster formation at 0.7–0.8, 1.0–1.1, 1.6–1.7 and 2.0–2.1 Gyr, separated by relative quiescent epochs of ∼0.2–0.3 Gyr. We also estimated a radial abundance gradient of  −0.08 ± 0.02  , which is consistent with the most recent determinations for the Galactic disc, but no clear evidence for a gradient perpendicular to the Galactic plane is found.     

The host galaxies of active galactic nuclei

We examine the properties of the host galaxies of 22 623 narrow-line active galactic nuclei (AGN) with  0.02 < z < 0.3  selected from a complete sample of 122 808 galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We focus on the luminosity of the [O  iii ]λ5007 emission line as a tracer of the strength of activity in the nucleus. We study how AGN host properties compare with those of normal galaxies and how they depend on L [O  iii ]. We find that AGN of all luminosities reside almost exclusively in massive galaxies and have distributions of sizes, stellar surface mass densities and concentrations that are similar to those of ordinary early-type galaxies in our sample. The host galaxies of low-luminosity AGN have stellar populations similar to normal early types. The hosts of high-luminosity AGN have much younger mean stellar ages. The young stars are not preferentially located near the nucleus of the galaxy, but are spread out over scales of at least several kiloparsecs. A significant fraction of high-luminosity AGN have strong Hδ absorption-line equivalent widths, indicating that they experienced a burst of star formation in the recent past. We have also examined the stellar populations of the host galaxies of a sample of broad-line AGN. We conclude that there is no significant difference in stellar content between type 2 Seyfert hosts and quasars (QSOs) with the same [O  iii ] luminosity and redshift. This establishes that a young stellar population is a general property of AGN with high [O  iii ] luminosities.