Statistical distribution of natural fractures and the possible physical generating mechanism

We have fitted field measurements of fracture spacings (from the vicinity of Lake Strom Thurmond, Georgia, U.S.A.) to the Weibull, Schuhmann and fractal distributions. The fracture spacings follow a fractal and Weibull distribution which implies that they were formed as a result of a repetitive fragmentation process. The limited variation of the fracture density with orientation in the study area suggests that the stress distribution generating these fractures may be uniform.     

阿德朗达克-西魁北克地震带地壳三维速度结构成像

根据在阿德朗达克-西魁北克地震带及其邻近地区的59台短周期数字地震仪记录的直达P波走时观测值,用地震层析成像方法反演了该地区地壳三维速度结构.结果表明,地壳上层（0-5km）在阿德朗达克穹隆山的中南部地区出现正速度异常;第二层（5-10km）及第三层（10-15km）的速度横向变化较小,介质相对比较均匀;第四层（15-25km）出现显著的速度异常,一个是位于地震带中部的正速度异常（+4％）,它与布格重力正异常一致;另一个是位于阿德朗达克穹隆山下的负速度异常（-4％）.结合已有的地质及地球物理资料进行对比,可以认为阿德朗达克是一个正在发展的穹隆上升山,但其热源前锋尚未到达地面的大陆热点.     

Signature of differential rotation in solar disk‐integrated chromospheric line emission

UARS SOLSTICE data have been subjected to Fourier and wavelet analyses in order to search for the signature of the solar rotation law in the disk‐integrated irradiance of UV lines. Lyman‐α, Mg II, and Ca II data show a different behaviour. In the SOLSTICE data there are significant temporal variations of the rotation rate of the UV tracers over 5—6 years. Often several distinct rotation periods appear almost simultaneously. Beside the basic period around 27 days there are signals at 32—35 days corresponding to the rotation rate at very high latitudes. For more than 5 years during another period of the solar cycle the rotational behaviour is quite different; there is an indication of differential rotation of active regions in these Ca II ground‐based data. The data contain a wealth of information about the solar differential rotation, but it proves difficult to disentangle the effects of the different emitting sources.     

An Upper Limit on Sunspot Activity During the Maunder Minimum

We have estimated the upper and lower limits of sunspot activity, in terms of active day fraction during the Maunder minimum (1645–1710), using raw information on individual daily observations (Hoyt and Schatten, 1998). Establishing the relation between the sunspot activity and active day fraction after 1850, we evaluate the upper limit of annual group sunspot number during the deep Maunder minimum (1645–1700) which does not exceed 4. The earlier finding of a dominant 22-year periodicity during the Maunder minimum is verified and shown to be robust. Also we confirm that the start of the Maunder minimum was very abrupt.     

Search for variable sources using data of “Cold” surveys

We search for variable sources, using the data of the surveys conducted on the RATAN-600 radio telescope in 1980–1994 at 3.94 GHz. To test the radio sources of the RCR (RATAN Cold Refined) catalog for variability, we estimated the long-term variability indices V of the studied objects, their relative variability amplitudes V _χ , and the χ ² probabilities p. Out of about two hundred considered sources, 41 proved to have positive long-term variability indices, suggesting that these sources may be variable. Fifteen objects can be considered to be reliably variable according to the χ ² criterion p > 0.98, three of these sources have χ ² probabilities p ≥ 0.999. The corresponding probabilities for six sources lie in the 0.95 < p < 0.98 interval, and those of the remaining 20 objects in the 0.73 ≤ p < 0.95 interval. Twenty four of 41 objects are variable or possibly variable in the optical range, and five objects are known variable radio sources. We construct the light curves and spectra for the sources with positive long-term variability indices.     

Bayesian improver of a distribution

 An estimate of a distribution obtained from a sample by any method of classical statistics may be erroneous when the sample is not representative of the population. A subjective distribution elicited from an expert may be miscalibrated when information is scanty and experience limited. The Bayesian Improver of a Distribution (BID) exploits a coherence principle and improves, in the ex ante sense, an initial estimate of a continuous distribution by using (i) the known distribution of a related variate and (ii) information about the dependence structure between the two variates. The theory of BID is developed into an applied (ABID) procedure. The ABID estimator is applicable to any continuous, monotone likelihood ratio dependent variates with arbitrary, strictly increasing marginal distributions, parametric or nonparametric; it is analytic in form and easy to implement via statistical or judgmental methods; it converges to the true distribution, provided the initial estimator does, as the sample size n→∞; it outperforms the initial estimator in the expected Kolmogorov–Smirnov distance for all n; and it offers the greatest gains when n is small – precisely when improved estimates are needed most.