Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Natural Processes

We propose a method for the construction of dynamic-stochastic models of natural systems based on the assimilation of the data of observations in the prognostic equations of coupled processes. In these models, the method of adaptive balance of causes is used to deduce evolutionary equations of the analyzed processes and assimilate the data of observations in these equations. The deduced general equations are considered for an example of a marine ecosystem characterized by the development of four coupled processes. It is shown that the optimal prediction of these processes requires the solution of 11 systems of equations with simultaneous adaptation of prognostic estimates and the coefficients of the models to the data of observations. A numerical simulation experiment explaining the algorithm of the proposed method of modeling is considered. A conclusion is made that the application of this method in the geoinformation systems of monitoring of the environment is quite promising.__________Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 31–42, November–December, 2004.     

Record-breaking chemical destruction of ozone in the arctic during the winter of 2004/2005

The extremely cold winter of 2004/2005 was accompanied by an intensive formation of polar stratospheric clouds and a significant chemical destruction of ozone. The results of calculating chemical losses of ozone in the polar cyclone from the SAGE-III satellite data are given. Over the period January 1–March 25, 2005, at the isentropic levels 450–500 K, about 60% of ozone was destroyed. During that winter, the zone of formation of polar stratospheric clouds went down to levels with very low values of potential temperature (down to 350 K), thus resulting in a noticeable destruction of ozone at low altitudes. By March 25, 2005, the chemical losses of total ozone attained 116 ± 10 DU (128 ± 10 DU at the cyclone boundary), which is a recordbreaking value of the Arctic.     

Numerical simulation of a quasi-tropical cyclone over the Black Sea

The paper describes results of numerical experiments on the simulation of a mesoscale quasi-tropical cyclone, a rare event for the Black Sea, with the MM5 regional atmospheric circulation model. General characteristics of the cyclone and its evolution and physical formation mechanisms are discussed. The balances of the momentum components have been estimated, and sensitivity experiments have been performed. It is shown that, according to its main physical properties and energy supply mechanisms, the cyclone can be related to quasi-tropical cyclones.     

Assessment of the impact of the planetary scale on the decay of blocking and the use of phase diagrams and enstrophy as a diagnostic

It was shown that abrupt changes in the large-scale structure of atmospheric flows may lead to the rapid decay of blocking. Analysis of phase diagrams made it possible to identify when sharp changes occurred in the dynamics of the system. The connection of these changes to the decay of blocking was estimated for three blocking events in the Southern Hemisphere. In addition to phase diagrams, enstrophy was used as a diagnostic tool for the analysis of blocking events. From the results of this analysis, four scenarios for the decay mechanisms were determined: (i) decay with a lack of synoptic-scale support, (ii) decay with an active role for synoptic processes, and (iii–iv) either of these mechanisms in the interaction with an abrupt change in the character of the planetary-scale flow.     

Determination of temperature and humidity of air,wind speed,and sensible and latent heat fluxes on the ocean surface according to the satellite data

Formulas for the evaluation of temperature and humidity of air, wind speed, and sensible and latent heat fluxes on the ocean surface according to the satellite data on the sea-surface temperature and cloudiness are deduced on the basis of the analysis of many-year radiosonde, meteorological, shipborne, and satellite data. The proposed formulas can also be used for the interpretation of the results of remote sensing of the ocean and atmosphere by radiometers in the visible, infrared, and microwave regions. The transformations of radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes are described depending on the sea-surface temperature for various cloudiness conditions. The computed values of the amount of water in the atmosphere agree with the radiosonde data obtained throughout the Earth, including the data of research vessels and stationary weather ships, as well as the data obtained in the ATEP test ranges and in the Arctic. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 2, pp. 56–70, March–April, 2007.     

Method and results of assimilation of climatic data on temperature,salinity, and sea level into a numerical model of the Black Sea

A method for combined assimilation of climatic hydrologic fields of temperature, salinity, and the climatic dynamic level of the Black Sea into a model of sea dynamics is proposed. The monthly mean fields of the dynamic sea level were obtained from the results of assimilation of satellite altimetry data into the model. The statistical characteristics of errors in the forecasts of the level, salinity, and temperature were assumed to be proportional to the statistical characteristics of the differences between monthly mean climatic fields of temperature, salinity, and sea level calculated by means of assimilating altimetry observations of the sea level and analogous climatic hydrologic fields. The climatic fields of currents are reconstructed and analyzed. The assimilation of the climatic altimetry level allows the reproduction (in current fields) of quasi-stationary synoptic anticyclonic eddies located along the periphery of the Black Sea Rim Current.     

Jellyfish patch formation investigated by aerial photography and drifter experiment

Jellyfish patch formation is investigated by conducting a drifter experiment combined with aerial photography of a sustained patch of the moon jellyfish in Hokezu Bay, Japan. Jellyfish patches are aggregations of individuals that are caused by a combination of swimming (active influence) and advection by currents (passive influence). The drifter experiment involved the injection of 49 drifters around a distinct surface patch of jellyfish within an area of approximately 300 m × 300 m. The drifters’ motion, caused only by the passive influence, was recorded in a series of 38 aerial photographs taken over approximately 1 h. The ambient uniform current field larger than the patch scale was estimated from the movement of the centroid position of drifters, while the distribution of horizontal divergence and relative vorticity around the patch was estimated from the time-derivative in areas of triangles formed by the drifters. The centroid positions of both drifters and patches moved stably toward the bay head at different speeds. The difference vector between the patch and drifter centroids was directed to the sun, and was opposite to the ambient current. The distributions of vorticity and divergence around patches exhibited inhomogeneity within the patch scale, and the drifters in this nonuniform current field aggregated near the convergence area within 1 h. The results suggest that horizontal patch formation is predominantly influenced by passive factors at the surface of Hokezu Bay. Furthermore, the upward swimming against downwelling may make sustained patch in surface layer.