Potential impact of ash eruptions on dairy farms from a study of the effects on a farm in eastern Bay of Plenty,New Zealand; implications for hazard mitigation

This paper investigates the impact ash fall would have on dairy farming, based on a study of ‘Tulachard’, a dairy farming operation at Rerewhakaaitu, North Island, New Zealand. It includes analysis of the potential effects on the dairy shed and milking machine, electrical supply and distribution, water supply and distribution, tractors and other farm vehicles, farm buildings (haysheds, pump sheds, implement sheds, etc.), milk-tanker access to the farm and critical needs of dairy cows and farm to keep milking. One of the most vulnerable areas identified in the study was the cooling of milk at the milking shed, pending dairy tanker pick-up. The cooling system’s condenser is exposed to the atmosphere and falling ash would make it highly vulnerable. Laboratory testing with wet and dry ash was conducted to determine its resilience to ash ingestion. It was found to perform satisfactorily during dry testing, but during wet testing significant clogging/blocking of the condenser’s radiator occurred, dramatically reducing airflow through the condenser. Specific mitigation recommendations have been developed that include cleaning with compressed air and adapting farm management techniques to lessen usage of the condenser during an ash-fall event. Specific recommendations for management of dairy farm operation are given to mitigate the effects of an ash-fall event.

A Probabilistic Approach for Identifying Independent Remote Compressions in an Intraplate Region: The Iberian Chain (Spain)

The discrimination between distinct remote compressions and multiple local stress deviations within a single compressive stress field has been carried out in the central-eastern Iberian Chain, by using structural criteria, computing palaeostress directions, identifying and ‘filtering’ stress deviations, and analysing time relationships. A probabilistic analysis based on a systematic comparison of real and expected frequencies of coexistence of two compressions is applied by means of the χ ² Test. This allows us to identify those tectonic compressions that behave as independent events from the probabilistic point of view. The results suggest that among five initially defined compression directions only three can be considered as representative of distinct (although partially superposed) externally applied intraplate stress fields: Iberian s.l. (NE-SW), Betic s.l. (NW-SE), and Pyrenean (N-S to NNE-SSW).     

A parallel domain decomposition algorithm for coastal ocean circulation models based on integer linear programming

This paper presents a new parallel domain decomposition algorithm based on integer linear programming (ILP), a mathematical optimization method. To minimize the computation time of coastal ocean circulation models, the ILP decomposition algorithm divides the global domain in local domains with balanced work load according to the number of processors and avoids computations over as many as land grid cells as possible. In addition, it maintains the use of logically rectangular local domains and achieves the exact same results as traditional domain decomposition algorithms (such as Cartesian decomposition). However, the ILP decomposition algorithm may not converge to an exact solution for relatively large domains. To overcome this problem, we developed two ILP decomposition formulations. The first one (complete formulation) has no additional restriction, although it is impractical for large global domains. The second one (feasible) imposes local domains with the same dimensions and looks for the feasibility of such decomposition, which allows much larger global domains. Parallel performance of both ILP formulations is compared to a base Cartesian decomposition by simulating two cases with the newly created parallel version of the Stevens Institute of Technology’s Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model (sECOM). Simulations with the ILP formulations run always faster than the ones with the base decomposition, and the complete formulation is better than the feasible one when it is applicable. In addition, parallel efficiency with the ILP decomposition may be greater than one.     

Incorporating space,time, and magnitude measures in a network characterization of earthquake events

We investigate the structural properties of a spatio-temporal network of earthquake events that incorporates magnitude information between the connected events. The network creates temporally directed links from an origin event towards a later event if it breaks the record closest distance from the origin among all the events in the catalog so far. Additionally, the links are conditionally classified based on the magnitude difference between connected events: “up” (“down”) connections point from a weaker (stronger) to a stronger (weaker) event. Using earthquake records from the Philippines from 1973 to 2012 and southern California from 1982 to 2012, we observe that the out-degree distributions show slight deviations from the corresponding Poisson distribution of the same mean. The space and time separations of connected earthquakes both show power-law regimes, suggesting spatio-temporal (self-)organization. More importantly, the conditional distributions of “up” and “down” connections in space, time, and network structure point to a higher likelihood of a stronger event triggering a nearby weaker event for the first few connections, as in the case of aftershocks. The results are captured by a sandpile-based model where a small but finite probability of preferentially targeting the most susceptible grid site is introduced. Our analysis, coupled with the discrete model analog, provides a quantitative picture of the spatio-temporal and magnitude organization of seismicity beyond just the successive events. The technique may be extended to further characterize similar long-period earthquake records to yield a more complete picture of the underlying processes involved in seismicity.     

Effect of surface wave propagation in a four-layered oceanic crust model

Dispersion of Rayleigh type surface wave propagation has been discussed in four-layered oceanic crust. It includes a sandy layer over a crystalline elastic half-space and over it there are two more layers—on the top inhomogeneous liquid layer and under it a liquid-saturated porous layer. Frequency equation is obtained in the form of determinant. The effects of the width of different layers as well as the inhomogeneity of liquid layer, sandiness of sandy layer on surface waves are depicted and shown graphically by considering all possible case of the particular model. Some special cases have been deduced, few special cases give the dispersion equation of Scholte wave and Stoneley wave, some of which have already been discussed elsewhere.     

A computational complexity analysis of Tienstra’s solution to equality-constrained adjustment

Tienstra’s method was developed to solve parameter adjustment with linear equality constraints, which has been otherwise often carried out by directly applying the conventional (or standard) method of Lagrange multipliers to quadratic optimization problems with a positive definite matrix. We analyze the computational complexity of the celebrated Tienstra’s method and compare it with that of the method of Lagrange multipliers. We show that Tienstra’s method is not only statistically elegant but also interestingly of significant computational advantage over the method of Lagrange multipliers to solve weighted least squares adjustment with linear equality constraints, with the saving of computational cost by a minimum of about 38% to a maximum of 100%. Tienstra’s method can be very important for large scale problems of adjustment and inversion with linear equality constraints.     

A general weighted total Kalman filter algorithm with numerical evaluation

An applicable algorithm for Total Kalman Filter (TKF) approach is proposed. Meanwhile, we extend it to the case in which we can consider arbitrary weight matrixes for the observation vector, the random design matrix and possible correlation between them. Also the updated dispersion matrix of the predicted unknown is given. This approach makes use of condition equations and straightforward variance propagation rules. It is applicable to data fusion within a dynamic errors-in-variables (DEIV) model, which usually appears in the determination of the position and attitude of mobile sensors. Then, we apply for the first time the TKF algorithm and its extended version named WTKF to a DEIV model and compare the results. The results show the efficiency of the proposed WTKF algorithm. In particular in the case of large weights, WTKF shows approximately 25% improvement in contrast to TKF approach.     

Statistical evidence for long-range space-time relationships between large earthquakes

Whether large earthquakes are triggered by other large earthquakes at very large distances, and at time scales where the triggered event is delayed by more than several days or weeks, is an open question. Here I provide statistical evidence to show that large earthquakes near the subduction zones of the Pacific plate boundary lessen significantly the average time until the next large earthquake that occurs near the boundaries of the smaller and adjacent Nazca and Cocos plates in the eastern Pacific Ocean. In addition, the existence and importance of this relationship is enriched by the finding that the larger the magnitude of the Pacific plate earthquake, the more likely it becomes that the time until the next earthquake in the distant triggered zone is less than the time since the last earthquake in the triggered zone. There are also specific regions along the western and northern Pacific plates where these relationships appear to be particularly prominent. The findings call into question the notion that the hazard of large earthquakes in distant regions is not raised following other large earthquakes, and they provide statistical evidence for relationships between earthquakes occurring months apart on different plates.     

The Italian guidelines for seismic risk classification of constructions: technical principles and validation

The Italian “Guidelines for the seismic risk classification of constructions” approved in February 2017 define the technical principles for exploiting tax deductions with respect to seismic strengthening interventions on existing buildings (Sismabonus). Tax deductions represent a unique opportunity to improve the seismic safety of the existing Italian building stock. The guidelines are very simple and allow practitioners to deal with the sophisticated concepts behind modern seismic design, such as expected annual losses (EAL) and repair costs (expressed as a fraction of the Reconstruction Cost: %RC). The seismic risk classes of buildings and the class upgrade due to strengthening interventions can be assessed using the principles included in the guidelines. The seismic risk class is the minimum between the class defined by the building safety index at the ultimate limit state and the one related to the EAL. The latter class depends on the area under the curve of the expected losses, which is easily obtained by computing the safety index converted in the return period (annual frequency) at different limit states and the relevant %RC. This paper illustrates the technical principles at the base of the guidelines and the procedure used to calibrate the repair costs associated with the different limit states using the actual repair costs monitored in the reconstruction process following recent Italian earthquakes. Finally, simple tools to estimate the cost of the strengthening interventions to improve the seismic capacity at the life-safety limit states are provided.