Large intensity changes of the non-dipole field during a polarity transition

Directional and paleointensity data for the Steens Mountain geomagnetic polarity transition do not agree with the two simplest models of reversals: rotation of undiminished dipole or gradual diminution followed by change in polarity of the dipole moment. Instead, large and rapid changes in the intensity and direction of the field occur, probably as a result of non-dipole variations.     

Palaeomagnetic and rock-magnetic study of a Pliocene volcanic section in southern Georgia (Caucasus)

Twenty-six basaltic flows were sampled for a paleomagnetic and rock-magnetic study of the Tchuntchka section in the Akhalkalaki volcanic region in southern Georgia (Caucasus). Three to five samples from each flow were subjected to thermal or alternating-field demagnetization. The upper part of the section yields normal (D = 355.5°, I = 54.2°, N = 17, ₉₅ = 2.5°, k = 226), and the lower part reversed polarity directions (D = 180.3°, I = – 59.4,° N = 8, ₉₅ = 4.8°, k = 135). An anomalous direction was found in one flow in the upper part (D = 118.5°, I = – 77.3°). Rock-magnetic experiments show that the remanence is carried in most cases by magnetite or low-Ti titanomagnetite. The fraction of grains with a multidomain magnetic structure does not seem to be important. The remanence carried by such grains is removed only partly by low-temperature demagnetization. A tentative magnetostratigraphic correlation between the 3.8-Ma-old Thoki and Tchuntchka sites is proposed.     

Rotation of the Semail ophiolite (Oman): Additional Paleomagnetic data from the volcanic sequence

Thirty-two flows (247 cores) were sampled in the V1 (Geotimes) and V2 (Lasail) volcanic units of the Semail ophiolite, Oman (Aswad, Fizh, Hilti, Sarami, Wuqbah, and Tayin massifs). Paleomagnetic analysis of the samples was complicated by a large overlap of the two components of magnetization carried by the rocks: a crystalline remanent magnetization (CRM) acquired in the present day field, probably during weathering, and an older CRM probably produced by oxidation of the original titanomagnetites during hydrothermal event(s). If the magnetization carried by the V1 samples was acquired during the hydrothermal event related to the emplacement of these lava, e.g., during and/or shortly after cooling, the tectonic unity of the northern domain has to be questioned and a differential rotation considered between the Aswad and Hilti-Sarami massifs but, by the time of emplacement of the V2 series, this northern area seems to behave as one large unit. As only one set of data is available for the southern Tayin-Sumail massif, it is premature but a possible relative rotation on the order of 90° can be suspected between the Hilti-Sarami and Tayin-Sumail massifs, rotation which would have occurred after emplacement of the V2 series.     

Spatio-temporal trends of mean air temperature during 1961–2009 and impacts on crop (maize) yields in the most important agricultural region of Romania

Climate change analysis is essential, considering the numerous economic and ecological implications of this critical global environmental issue. This paper analyzes the spatial and temporal trends of mean air temperature in Romania’s most important agricultural area, the south and south-eastern region, between 1961 and 2009. In this respect, multiannual (the entire period) and multidecadal (1961–1990, 1971–2000, 1981–2009) trends were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope method at 23 weather stations, annually, seasonally and for the growing season of the region’s main agricultural crops (maize and wheat). Multiannually, the results showed statistically significant temperature increases, on all temporal scales (maximum rate of 0.06 °C/year recorded in summer, equivalent to a net temperature rise of 2.82 °C), except for the autumn season (cooling without statistical significance). Multidecadally, the 1961–1990 period is marked by a general cooling, especially in autumn (maximum values of ?0.07 °C/year or over 2 °C net cooling). In the 1971–2000 and 1981–2009 periods, a general warming was observed (maximum in summer for both multidecades, when positive rates peaked at 0.09 °C/year, or 2.5–3 °C net warming), but the warming of the last three decades is the most prominent in terms of spatial average magnitude and trend significance. Upon analysis of the impact of climate warming on agricultural yields (maize) through linear regression, in the 1991–2000 decade, considered as case study, it was found that in 32 % of the total analyzed area there are evident relationships between the two variables (p value <0.05). In this case, a dependency of 33–50 % (40 %, on average) of maize to climate was found, and a sensitivity (loss) ranging between 0.9 and 1.5 t/ha/year (1.2 t/ha/year, on average) for a 1 °C temperature rise. At the same time, significant losses (of up to 1.7 t/ha/year) of maize for a 1 °C temperature rise were identified in 51 % of the area, but with little p value significance (between 0.05 and 0.1). It is however necessary to analyse the agro-climatic results cautiously, considering that only one decade of climate-agriculture relationship was studied. The results can be useful first and foremost for mitigating the climate change impact on agricultural systems, by prioritizing future adaptation strategies enforced by policy makers.     

Another approach to reliability measures for systems with correlated observations

An approach to internal reliability analysis is presented which, compared to existing approaches, offers further insight into the system responses to observation gross errors. The proposed reliability measures are defined on the diagonal and non-diagonal elements of the modified reliability matrix being an oblique projector. It maps the observations into the least squares residuals, both expressed as multiples of the a priori standard deviations of the observations. The system responses to a single gross error, such as the local, the quasi-global or the global response, are discussed and their consistency with non-correlation case is proved. Also, the reliability criteria interpretable in terms of those responses are proposed. They enable one to evaluate the observation systems with correlated and uncorrelated observations with respect to internal reliability. An attempt is also made to relate the global responses to reliability numbers that are the basis for determining the magnitude of the minimal detectable bias. Some differences of the new reliability measures in relation to existing measures are indicated. A numerical example is provided, showing the reliability analysis for a simulated horizontal network (distances, angles and GPS vectors), with given covariance matrix for GPS-vector components. In addition, a reliability analysis is presented for a simple leveling network being a study case for other authors referred to in this paper.     

Channelization of a large Alpine river: what is left of its original morphodynamics?

The Adige River drains 12 200 km² of the Eastern Alps and flows for 213 km within this mountain range. Similar to other large rivers in Central Europe, the Adige River was subject to massive channelization works during the 19th century. Thanks to the availability of several historical maps, this river represents a very valuable case study to document the extent to which the morphology of the river changed due to channelization and to understand how much is left of its original morphodynamics. The study was based on the analysis of seven sets of historical maps dating from 1803–1805 to 1915–1927, on geomorphological analysis, on the application of mathematical morphodynamic theories and on the application of bar and channel pattern prediction models. The study concerns 115 km of the main stem and 29 km of its tributaries. In the pre‐channelization conditions, the Adige River presented a prevalence of single‐thread channel planforms. Multi‐thread patterns developed only immediately downstream of the main confluences. During the 19th century, the Adige underwent considerable channel adjustment, consisting of channel narrowing, straightening, and reduction of bars and islands. Multi‐thread and single‐thread reaches evolved through different evolutionary trajectories, considering both the channel width and the bar/vegetation interaction. Bar and channel pattern predictors showed good correspondence with the observed patterns, including the development of multi‐thread morphologies downstream of the confluences. Application of the free‐bar predictor helped to interpret the strong reduction – almost complete loss – of exposed sediment bars after the channelization works, quantifying the riverbed inclination to form alternate bars. This morphological evolution can be observed in other Alpine rivers of similar size and similar massive channelization, therefore, a simplified conceptual model for large rivers subjected to channelization is proposed, showing that a relatively small difference in the engineered channel width may have a strong impact on the river dynamics, specifically on bar formation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of the location of future rupture surfaces of a slowly moving loess landslide by electrical resistivity tomography

A slowly moving loess landslide along the River Danube in South Hungary was studied using electrical resistivity tomography. Our aim was to determine the fracture system of the study site. Due to the homogeneous composition of the loess, it seems to be the only possibility to get information about the landslide and its further evolution. The applicability of the electrical resistivity tomography technique for such a supposedly dense fracture system was studied by numerical modelling, and the results have been verified in the field. The dip of the fractures could not always been observed, and they could not be explored deeply. However, it was possible to map their surface projection to get the desired information about the structure of the landslide. Fracture zones could have been especially well localized, enabling the prediction of the positions of future rupture surfaces and thus the delineation of the endangered zone. Although the area outside of the already subsided one is not endangered yet, the area which has already started to move is going to break into two. Parts of the about 5 m wide blocks at the front of the landslide may fall or slide down anytime. A large area was assumed to move as one unit. Most of our predictions have been verified by the mass movements that occurred about one and half years after the measurements. The electrical resistivity tomography method proved to be a good tool to characterize the fracture system of such a landslide area, enabling the prediction of future rupture surfaces and also delineation of the endangered area. Its use is therefore highly recommended to monitor landslides to provide early risk warnings to avoid damage to constructions or endangering human life.     

Analytic tools for investigating the structure of network reliability measures with regard to observation correlations

A global measure of observation correlations in a network is proposed, together with the auxiliary indices related to non-diagonal elements of the correlation matrix. Based on the above global measure, a specific representation of the correlation matrix is presented, being the result of rigorously proven theorem formulated within the present research. According to the theorem, each positive definite correlation matrix can be expressed by a scale factor and a so-called internal weight matrix. Such a representation made it possible to investigate the structure of the basic reliability measures with regard to observation correlations. Numerical examples carried out for two test networks illustrate the structure of those measures that proved to be dependent on global correlation index. Also, the levels of global correlation are proposed. It is shown that one can readily find an approximate value of the global correlation index, and hence the correlation level, for the expected values of auxiliary indices being the only knowledge about a correlation matrix of interest. The paper is an extended continuation of the previous study of authors that was confined to the elementary case termed uniform correlation. The extension covers arbitrary correlation matrices and a structure of correlation effect.     

Frictional slip plane growth by localization detection and the extended finite element method (XFEM)

This paper is concerned with developing a numerical tool for detecting instabilities in elasto‐plastic solids (with an emphasis on soils) and inserting a discontinuity at these instabilities allowing the boundary value problem to proceed beyond these instabilities. This consists of implementing an algorithm for detection of strong discontinuities within a finite element (FE) framework. These discontinuities are then inserted into the FE problem through the use of a displacement field enrichment technique called the extended finite element method (XFEM). The newly formed discontinuities are governed by a Mohr–Coulomb frictional law that is enforced by a penalty method. This implementation within an FE framework is then tested on a compressive soil block and a soil slope where the discontinuity is inserted and grown according to the localization detection. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fully coupled simulation of fluid injection into geomaterials with focus on nonlinear near‐well behavior

An important part of our global wealth depends on the extraction of fluids from porous media. More recently, sequestration of carbon dioxide (rmCO₂) into deep geological layers as a possible measure to mitigate climate change has increased interest in fluid injection into porous media. Sophisticated numerical models play an important role in managing the uncertainties related to the subsurface, and finite element methods are the most versatile tool allowing the coupling of fluid flow, geomechanics and other physical processes. This paper gives insight into two important aspects of fluid injection/extraction in porous media: the correct modeling of the bore hole through specification of initial stresses, which together with a fully coupled strategy allows simulation of nonlinear poromechanics, and the imposition of appropriate boundary conditions that allow the controlled injection/extraction of a total specified amount of fluid in an anisotropic porous medium, without exceeding a safe operating pressure. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.