Linear regressions do not predict the transient responses of eastern north american forests to CO2-induced climate change

Previous research has shown that various fluxes of carbon from and into ecosystems are correlated with summary climatic measures, such as actual evapotranspiration (AET). The best known of these is a regression of net primary production of terrestrial vegetation against AET published by Rosenzweig (1968). Rosenzweig intended this regression to represent steady state relationships of net primary production to climate. Nevertheless, it is tempting to use such regressions to predict transient responses of carbon flux to climate change, and several models take such an approach. Here, using a more detailed ecosystems model, we show that lags in population responses to climate change and non-linear changes in soil nitrogen availability that limit tree growth cause large departures from this regression during the transition between current climate and a 2 × CO₂ climate. Simple models that do not consider population or soil dynamics may err when applied to the period of transition during a changing climate.     

Experimental observations of aquifer storage and recovery in brackish aquifers using multiple partially penetrating wells

Hydrogeology Journal - Aquifer storage and recovery systems using multiple partially penetrating wells (MPPW-ASR) can form a viable solution to the problem of freshwater buoyancy when using...     

Spatio-temporal analysis of flowering using LiDAR topography

Spatio-temporal patterns of flowering in forest ecosystems are hard to quantify and monitor. The objectives of this study were to investigate spatio-temporal patterns(e.g. soilssimple slope classesslope aspectand flow accumulation) of flowering around Lake IssaqueenaSouth Carolina(SCUSA) using plant-flowering database collected with GPS- enabled camera(stored in Picasa 3 web albums and project website) on a monthly basis in 2012 and Li DAR-based topography. Pacolet fine sandy loam had the most flowering plantsfollowed by Madison sandy loamboth dominant soil types around the lake. Most flowering plants were on moderately steep(17%–30%) and gently sloping(4%–8%) slopes. Most flowering plants were on west(247.5°–292.5°)southwest(202.5°–247.5°)and northwest(292.5°–337.5°) aspects. Most flowering plants were associated with minimum and maximum flows within the landscape. Chi-square tests indicated differences in the distributions of the proportions of flowering plants were significant by soil typeslopeaspectand flow accumulation for each month(February-November)for all months(overall)and across months. The Chi-square test on area-normalized data indicated significant differences for all months and individual differences by each month with some months not statistically significant. Cluster analysis on flowering counts for nine plant families with the most flowering counts indicated no unique separation by clusterbut implied that the majority of these families were flowering on strongly sloping(9%–16%) slopeson southwest(202.5°–247.5°) aspectsand low flow accumulation(0–200). Presented methodology can serve as a template for future efforts to quantify spatio-temporal patterns of flowering and other phenological events.     

A preliminary estimate of changing calcrete carbon storage on land since the Last Glacial Maximum

The glacial-to-interglacial shift in land carbon storage is important in understanding the global carbon cycle and history of the climate system. While organic carbon storage on land appears to have been much less than present during the cold, dry glacial maximum, calcrete (soil carbonate) carbon storage would have been greater. Here we attempt a global estimation of this change; we use published figures for present soil carbonate by biome to estimate changing global soil carbonate storage, on the basis of reconstruction of vegetation areas for four timeslices since the Last Glacial Maximum. It appears that there would most likely have been around a 30–45% decrease in calcrete carbon on land accompanying the transition between glacial and interglacial conditions. This represents a change of about 500–400 GtC (outer error limits are estimated at 750–200 GtC) . In order to be weathered into dissolved bicarbonate, this would take up an additional 500–400 GtC (750–200 GtC) in CO₂ from ocean/atmosphere sources. An equivalent amount to the carbonate leaving the caliche reservoir on land may have accumulated in coral reefs and other calcareous marine sediments during the Holocene, liberating an equimolar quantity of CO₂ back into the ocean-atmosphere system as the bicarbonate ion breaks up.     

European Circulation Patterns and Meteorological Situation in Estonia

Summary  An attempt has been made to relate a large-scale airflow classification to the local weather at two stations in Estonia. To describe the features of the general circulation over Europe, the large-scale circulation patterns (Grosswetterlagen) of the German Weather Service have been chosen. Daily precipitation and temperature deviations from the monthly mean in P?rnu and Tartu for 1961–1993 have been used. It can be said that the weather in Estonia shows a good relationship with the general circulation types (Zirkulationsformen) that are defined by means of the Grosswetterlagen. Zonal circulation brings to Estonia wet weather that in winter is warmer than average and in summer cooler than average. Mixed circulation is associated with warmer winters and average summers. Meridional circulation brings cold winters and variable weather in summer. To explain the large dispersion of values of meteorological elements within any one circulation type, a more detailed analysis of the relationships between circulation patterns and meteorological situation in Estonia is needed. Received June 17, 1998 Revised January 13, 1999     

上地幔各向异性分析中地壳的影响

应用伪谱法研究了地壳各向异性对上地幔各向异性分析的影响. 用几种不同情况下的两层各向异性模型,模拟了全波场,着重分析了不同深度观测点上的剪切波分裂特征. 结果表明,当地壳为各向同性或其各向异性主轴与上地幔重合或相互垂直时,在地壳观测到的快、慢剪切波的偏振方向保持了上地幔中的偏振方向;重合时,快、慢波走时延迟增大;垂直时,走时延迟减小. 当地壳的各向异性主轴与上地幔成一般夹角时,其粒子运动轨迹变得十分复杂,不能直观地识别上地幔各向异性中的快波方向,对走时延迟也有一定的影响. 将常用的两种分析方法应用于对模拟结果的反演,发现当地壳各向异性与上地幔各向异性方向为一般夹角时,反演结果会出现较大的误差或误判. 进而提出解决这一问题的方法,一是综合多种方法的结果;二是由拟合残差或相关系数等值线作进一步的确定.     

Response of braiding channel morphodynamics to peak discharge changes in the Upper Yellow River

The braiding intensity and dynamics in large braiding rivers are well known to depend on peak discharges, but the response in braiding and channel–floodplain transformations to changes in discharge regime are poorly known. This modelling study addresses the morphodynamic effects of increasing annual peak discharges in braiding rivers. The study site is a braiding reach of the Upper Yellow River. We estimated the effects on the larger‐scale channel pattern, and on the smaller‐scale bars, channel branches and floodplains. Furthermore, we determined the sensitivity of the channel pattern to model input parameters. The results showed that the dominant effect of a higher peak discharge is the development of chute channels on the floodplains, formed by connecting head‐cut channels and avulsive channels. Widening of the main channel by bank erosion was found to be less dominant. In addition, sedimentation on the bars and floodplains increased with increasing peak discharge. The model results also showed that the modelled channel pattern is especially sensitive to parametrization of the bed slope effect, whereas the effect of median grain size was found to be relatively small. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Spatially Periodic Solute Boundary for MT3DMS and PHT3D

The assumption of spatial repetition is commonly made when producing bedform scale models of the hyporheic zone. Two popular solute transport codes, MT3DMS and PHT3D, do not currently provide the necessary boundary condition required to simulate spatial periodicity in hyporheic zone transport problems. In this study, we develop a spatially periodic boundary (SPB) for solutes that is compatible with a SPB that was previously developed for MODFLOW to simulate the flow component of spatially periodic problems. The approach is ideal for simulating groundwater flow and transport patterns under repeating surface features, such as ripples or dunes on the bottom of a lake or stream. The appropriate block‐centered finite‐difference approach to implement the boundary is presented and the necessary source code modifications are discussed. The performance of the solute SPB, operating in conjunction with the groundwater flow SPB, is explored through comparison of a multi‐bedform hyporheic‐zone model with a single bedform variant. The new boundary conditions perform well in situations where both dispersive effects and lateral seepage flux in the underflow regime beneath the hyporheic zone are minimal.     

PHT3D‐UZF: A Reactive Transport Model for Variably‐Saturated Porous Media

A modified version of the MODFLOW/MT3DMS‐based reactive transport model PHT3D was developed to extend current reactive transport capabilities to the variably‐saturated component of the subsurface system and incorporate diffusive reactive transport of gaseous species. Referred to as PHT3D‐UZF, this code incorporates flux terms calculated by MODFLOW's unsaturated‐zone flow (UZF1) package. A volume‐averaged approach similar to the method used in UZF‐MT3DMS was adopted. The PHREEQC‐based computation of chemical processes within PHT3D‐UZF in combination with the analytical solution method of UZF1 allows for comprehensive reactive transport investigations (i.e., biogeochemical transformations) that jointly involve saturated and unsaturated zone processes. Intended for regional‐scale applications, UZF1 simulates downward‐only flux within the unsaturated zone. The model was tested by comparing simulation results with those of existing numerical models. The comparison was performed for several benchmark problems that cover a range of important hydrological and reactive transport processes. A 2D simulation scenario was defined to illustrate the geochemical evolution following dewatering in a sandy acid sulfate soil environment. Other potential applications include the simulation of biogeochemical processes in variably‐saturated systems that track the transport and fate of agricultural pollutants, nutrients, natural and xenobiotic organic compounds and micropollutants such as pharmaceuticals, as well as the evolution of isotope patterns.     

Fog and rainwater composition in rural SE Australia

In order to determine if pollutants from the Wollongong-Sydney-Newcastle industrial area in southeastern Australia can be transported northwards, affecting precipitation quality to the north, a preliminary study of fog and rainwater quality was carried out from January to April 1989. Samples were collected from two sites in the state of New South Wales, one in the Barrington Tops and the other near Dorrigo. These samples were analyzed for the cations sodium, calcium, magnesium, potassium, and ammonium, and the anions chloride, nitrate, sulfate, methanesulfonate, formate and acetate, as well as pH and conductivity.The mean pH of fogwater from the two sites was 5.48, compared to 5.62 for rainwater. Fogwater also had concentrations of ions 2–6 times those in rainwater. For both fog and rain the ions sodium, chloride, magnesium, and methanesulfonate at both sites were essentially entirely sea-salt derived, while only 5–50% of potassium, calcium, and sulfate were derived from sea-salt. The acid-base balance was adequately described (r=0.76) by a balance between the acidity contributed by sulfuric and nitric acids, neutralized by the alkalinity of ammonia and (soil dust-derived) calcium carbonate. Comparing this study with others, both within Australia and overseas, fog and rainwater at both sites are not polluted, with acidity only slightly greater than background and concentrations of anthropogenic pollutants very low, and with sea-salt influences accounting for the majority of ionic loading.