A Model-Averaging Method for Assessing Groundwater Conceptual Model Uncertainty

This study evaluates alternative groundwater models with different recharge and geologic components at the northern Yucca Flat area of the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS), USA. Recharge over the DVRFS has been estimated using five methods, and five geological interpretations are available at the northern Yucca Flat area. Combining the recharge and geological components together with additional modeling components that represent other hydrogeological conditions yields a total of 25 groundwater flow models. As all the models are plausible given available data and information, evaluating model uncertainty becomes inevitable. On the other hand, hydraulic parameters (e.g., hydraulic conductivity) are uncertain in each model, giving rise to parametric uncertainty. Propagation of the uncertainty in the models and model parameters through groundwater modeling causes predictive uncertainty in model predictions (e.g., hydraulic head and flow). Parametric uncertainty within each model is assessed using Monte Carlo simulation, and model uncertainty is evaluated using the model averaging method. Two model-averaging techniques (on the basis of information criteria and GLUE) are discussed. This study shows that contribution of model uncertainty to predictive uncertainty is significantly larger than that of parametric uncertainty. For the recharge and geological components, uncertainty in the geological interpretations has more significant effect on model predictions than uncertainty in the recharge estimates. In addition, weighted residuals vary more for the different geological models than for different recharge models. Most of the calibrated observations are not important for discriminating between the alternative models, because their weighted residuals vary only slightly from one model to another.     

Deriving the coronal hole electron temperature: electron density dependent ionization / recombination considerations

Comparison of appropriate theoretically derived line ratios with observational data can yield estimates of a plasma’s physical parameters,such as electron density or temperature.The usual practice in the calculation of the line ratio is the assumption of excitation by electrons/protons followed by radiative decay.Furthermore,it is normal to use the so-called coronal approximation,i.e.one only considers ionization and recombination to and from the ground-state.A more accurate treatment is to include ionizati...     

The use of chemical dispersants to combat oil spills at sea: A review of practice and research needs in Europe

In order to better understand the practice of dispersant use, a review has been undertaken of marine oil spills over a 10 year period (1995-2005), looking in particular at variations between different regions and oil-types. This viewpoint presents and analyses the review data and examines a range of dispersant use policies. The paper also discusses the need for a reasoned approach to dispersant use and introduces past cases and studies to highlight lessons learned over the past ten years, focussing on dispersant effectiveness and monitoring; toxicity and environmental effects; the use of dispersants in low salinity waters; response planning and future research needs.     

Do planetary encounters reset surfaces of near Earth asteroids?

Processes such as the solar wind sputtering and micrometeorite impacts can modify optical properties of surfaces of airless bodies. This explains why spectra of the main belt asteroids, exposed to these ‘space weathering’ processes over eons, do not match the laboratory spectra of ordinary chondrite (OC) meteorites. In contrast, an important fraction of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), defined as Q-types in the asteroid taxonomy, display spectral attributes that are a good match to OCs. Here we study the possibility that the Q-type NEAs underwent recent encounters with the terrestrial planets and that the tidal gravity (or other effects) during these encounters exposed fresh OC material on the surface (thus giving it the Q-type spectral properties). We used numerical integrations to determine the statistics of encounters of NEAs to planets. The results were used to calculate the fraction and orbital distribution of Q-type asteroids expected in the model as a function of the space weathering timescale, t_sw (see main text for definition), and maximum distance, r^∗, at which planetary encounters can reset the surface. We found that t_sw ∼ 10⁶ yr (at 1 AU) and r^∗ ∼ 5R_pl, where R_pl is the planetary radius, best fit the data. Values t_sw < 10⁵ yr would require that r^∗ > 20R_pl, which is probably implausible because these very distant encounters should be irrelevant. Also, the fraction of Q-type NEAs would be probably much larger than the one observed if t_sw > 10⁷ yr. We found that t_sw ∝ q², where q is the perihelion distance, expected if the solar wind sputtering controls t_sw, provides a better match to the orbital distribution of Q-type NEAs than models with fixed t_sw. We also discuss how the Earth magnetosphere and radiation effects such as YORP can influence the spectral properties of NEAs.     

Relationships between variations of the land–ocean–atmosphere system of northeastern Asia and northwestern North America

This study is a broad-scale synthesis of information on climate changes in two Arctic terrestrial regions, eastern Siberia and the Alaska–Yukon area of North America. Over the past 60 years (1951–2010), the trends of temperature and precipitation in the two regions are broadly similar in their seasonality. However, atmospheric advection influences the two regions differently during winter. The differential advective effects are much weaker in the other seasons. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is the strongest correlator with interannual variability in the two regions, followed by the Arctic Oscillation and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.Projected changes by the late 21st Century are qualitatively similar to the changes that have been ongoing over the past 60 years, although the rate of change increases modestly under mid-range forcing scenarios (e.g., the A1B scenario). The greatest warming is projected to occur farther north over the Arctic Ocean in response to sea ice loss. Precipitation is projected to increase by all models, although increases in evapotranspiration preclude conclusions about trends toward wetter or drier land surface conditions. A notable feature of the future climate simulations is a strong maximum of pressure decreases in the Bering Sea region, implying further advective changes.     

Limnology of Lake Rerewhakaaitu

The limnology of Lake Rerewhakaaitu (36°18'S, 176° 30'E) was studied at various intervals between 1971 and 1974; comparisons were made between the main lake (area 6.32 km², mean depth 7 m, maximum depth 15 m), and the smaller (0.15 km²) and deeper (mean depth 15 m, maximum 31 m) crater which are connected by a narrow, 1 m deep channel. The main lake was usually homothermal, although temporary stratification periodically occurred, and the oxygen content of the deeper water could be as low as 2 g.m^‐3. The crater showed strong thermal and chemical stratification persisting well into the winter. Its heat budget and other factors related to lake stability are compared with those of some other New Zealand lakes. The failure of the crater to become fully re‐oxygenated during its brief period of homothermy is believed to be related to its morphometry, since the amount of phytoplankton did not appear to be great enough to explain the low levels of dissolved oxygen in the hypolimnion. The hypolimnetic oxygen deficit in 1973–74 was 0.038 mg. cm^‐2.day^‐1. Qualitatively the phytoplankton, usually dominated by desmids, was characteristic of oligotrophic waters, but quantitatively the main lake could be rated as mesotrophic. Differences were also found in the abundance of zooplankton between the crater and the main lake: there were usually more Bosmina but considerably fewer Ceriodaphnia in the main lake which had greater numbers of Piona. Adult Calamoecia were generally more abundant in the crater.     

Description of the larval development of Galaxies maculatus in landlocked lentic and lotic systems in Western Australia

The larvae and larval development of Galaxias maculatus are described from a freshwater lake and a saline river in southwestern Western Australia. The size at hatching (7.0 mm total length) was similar to that recorded elsewhere for G. maculatus and the sequence of fin development (i.e., caudal, dorsal, anal, pectoral, and pelvic fins) was identical to that recorded for galaxiids generally. There were relative increases in the proportions of head length and body depth with larval growth and a decrease in proportion of pre‐anal length. Larvae from river habitats were smaller throughout larval stages of development than those from the lake. Fins of riverine fish began and completed development at a smaller size of fish than the lacustrine population, presumably as a response to the need for great motility at a smaller fish size in lotic environments.     

Temperature variation with latitude in the upper solar photosphere: Relevance to solar oblateness measurements and facular models

Solar Physics - Altrock and Canfield's observations of temperature variation with latitude in the upper solar photosphere refer to higher levels (smaller optical depths) than those to which...