Incorporation of conceptual and parametric uncertainty into radionuclide flux estimates from a fractured granite rock mass

Detailed numerical flow and radionuclide simulations are used to predict the flux of radionuclides from three underground nuclear tests located in the Climax granite stock on the Nevada Test Site. The numerical modeling approach consists of both a regional-scale and local-scale flow model. The regional-scale model incorporates conceptual model uncertainty through the inclusion of five models of hydrostratigraphy and five models describing recharge processes for a total of 25 hydrostratigraphic–recharge combinations. Uncertainty from each of the 25 models is propagated to the local-scale model through constant head boundary conditions that transfer hydraulic gradients and flow patterns from each of the model alternatives in the vicinity of the Climax stock, a fluid flux calibration target, and model weights that describe the plausibility of each conceptual model. The local-scale model utilizes an upscaled discrete fracture network methodology where fluid flow and radionuclides are restricted to an interconnected network of fracture zones mapped onto a continuum grid. Standard Monte Carlo techniques are used to generate 200 random fracture zone networks for each of the 25 conceptual models for a total of 5,000 local-scale flow and transport realizations. Parameters of the fracture zone networks are based on statistical analysis of site-specific fracture data, with the exclusion of fracture density, which was calibrated to match the amount of fluid flux simulated through the Climax stock by the regional-scale models. Radionuclide transport is simulated according to a random walk particle method that tracks particle trajectories through the fracture continuum flow fields according to advection, dispersion and diffusional mass exchange between fractures and matrix. The breakthrough of a conservative radionuclide with a long half-life is used to evaluate the influence of conceptual and parametric uncertainty on radionuclide mass flux estimates. The fluid flux calibration target was found to correlate with fracture density, and particle breakthroughs were generally found to increase with increases in fracture density. Boundary conditions extrapolated from the regional-scale model exerted a secondary influence on radionuclide breakthrough for models with equal fracture density. The incorporation of weights into radionuclide flux estimates resulted in both noise about the original (unweighted) mass flux curves and decreases in the variance and expected value of radionuclide mass flux.     

Using SCUBA to place upper limits on arcsecond-scale cosmic microwave background anisotropies at 850 m

The SCUBA instrument on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope has already had an impact on cosmology by detecting relatively large numbers of dusty galaxies at high redshift. Apart from identifying well-detected sources, such data can also be mined for information about fainter sources and their correlations, as revealed through low-level fluctuations in SCUBA maps. As a first step in this direction, we analyse a small SCUBA data set as if it were obtained from a cosmic microwave background (CMB) differencing experiment. This enables us to place limits on CMB anisotropy at 850 m. Expressed as Q _flat, the quadrupole expectation value for a flat power spectrum, the limit is 152 K at 95 per cent confidence, corresponding to     (or T T <1410⁵) for a Gaussian autocorrelation function, with a coherence angle of about 2025 arcsec. These results could easily be reinterpreted in terms of any other fluctuating sky signal. This is currently the best limit for these scales at high frequency, and comparable to limits at similar angular scales in the radio. Even with such a modest data set, it is possible to put a constraint on the slope of the SCUBA counts at the faint end, since even randomly distributed sources would lead to fluctuations. Future analysis of sky correlations in more extensive data sets ought to yield detections, and hence additional information on source counts and clustering.     

Evidence necessary for taxa to be reliable indicators of environmental conditions or impacts

Using taxa as indicators of environmental impacts is widespread. Indicators are chosen because they are considered to be easy to measure, sensitive to stresses and respond to stresses in predictable ways. Here, we review these criteria by addressing the nature of the relationships between some characteristic of taxa and the environmental variables they are supposed to indicate. It is crucial that variables measured as indicators be strongly and consistently correlated (through space and time) with levels of the environmental variables. Appropriate experiments must be done to establish that an observed correlation is causal, or the correlation cannot be considered sufficient to identify a useful indicator. Finally, it is necessary to establish that the taxa directly respond to changes in the environmental variables they are supposed to indicate. Appropriate methodologies to establish these criteria are considered and we evaluate studies in which these criteria have or have not been met.     

The fate of basaltic enclaves during pyroclastic eruptions: An origin of andesitic ignimbrites

Igneous enclaves, chilled bodies of magma with compositions contrasting with those of their hosts, have long been recognized in felsic plutonic rocks. Similar enclaves occur in felsic pyroclastic rocks despite the apparent difficulty of their survival of the explosive eruption process without fragmentation. The occurrence of andesitic ignimbrites with textural evidence of generation by mechanical mixing of felsic and mafic ash indicates that in some instances basaltic enclaves in felsic magmas that erupted explosively do indeed undergo fragmentation and homogenization with their host. Two exposures of rhyolitic ignimbrite that hosts basaltic enclaves, and of andesitic ignimbrite, in coastal Maine demonstrate the set of conditions necessary for survival of basaltic enclaves during catastrophic explosive eruptions. Relatively lower viscosity of basaltic enclaves compared to the rhyolitic host magma permits vesicle networks to develop as volatiles exsolve from the melt and form bubbles. The vesicle networks provide sufficient permeability for exsolving gases to escape the basaltic magma bodies, hence sparing the basaltic enclaves from fragmentation. If adequate permeability for volatile escape does not develop, the expanding bubbles are trapped within the basaltic enclave and ultimately, with depressurization during rise of the magma to the surface, cause fragmentation of the basaltic magma. In this case, the basaltic ash and the host rhyolitic ash homogenize, producing a hybrid ignimbrite, while the surrounding viscous rhyolitic magma behaves typically, with a small volume of the rhyolitic magma retaining its coherence as pumice bodies while most of the magma fragments shortly after vesiculation to become ash. These observations suggest a distinction between the voluminous andesites associated with subduction zones, for which attainment of intermediate composition occurred as a result of petrologic processes unique to subduction zones, and hybrid andesitic ignimbrites, which are spatially associated with bimodal magmatic systems in a variety of tectonic settings and are the result of mechanical mixing of ash during pyroclastic flow.     

Quantitative gas saturation estimation by frequency‐dependent amplitude‐versus‐offset analysis

Seismic amplitudes contain important information that can be related to fluid saturation. The amplitude‐versus‐offset analysis of seismic data based on Gassmann's theory and the approximation of the Zoeppritz equations has played a central role in reservoir characterization. However, this standard technique faces a long‐standing problem: its inability to distinguish between partial gas and “fizz‐water” with little gas saturation. In this paper, we studied seismic dispersion and attenuation in partially saturated poroelastic media by using frequency‐dependent rock physics model, through which the frequency‐dependent amplitude‐versus‐offset response is calculated as a function of porosity and water saturation. We propose a cross‐plotting of two attributes derived from the frequency‐dependent amplitude‐versus‐offset response to differentiate partial gas saturation and “fizz‐water” saturation. One of the attributes is a measure of “low frequency”, or Gassmann, of reflectivity, whereas the other is a measure of the “frequency dependence” of reflectivity. This is in contrast to standard amplitude‐versus‐offset attributes, where there is typically no such separation. A pragmatic frequency‐dependent amplitude‐versus‐offset inversion for rock and fluid properties is also established based on Bayesian theorem. A synthetic study is performed to explore the potential of the method to estimate gas saturation and porosity variations. An advantage of our work is that the method is in principle predictive, opening the way to further testing and calibration with field data. We believe that such work should guide and augment more theoretical studies of frequency‐dependent amplitude‐versus‐offset analysis.     

A search for the submillimetre counterparts to Lyman break galaxies

We have carried out targeted submillimetre observations as part of a programme to explore the connection between the rest-frame ultraviolet and far-infrared properties of star-forming galaxies at high redshift, which is currently poorly understood. On the one hand, the Lyman break technique is very effective at selecting     galaxies. On the other, 'blank-field' imaging in the submillimetre seems to turn up sources routinely, amongst which some are star-forming galaxies at similar redshifts. Already much work has been done searching for optical identifications of objects detected using the SCUBA instrument. Here we have taken the opposite approach, performing submillimetre photometry for a sample of Lyman break galaxies, the ultraviolet properties of which imply high star formation rates. The total signal from our Lyman break sample is undetected in the submillimetre, at an rms level of ∼0.5 mJy, which implies that the population of Lyman break galaxies does not constitute a large part of the recently detected blank-field submillimetre sources. However, our one detection suggests that with reasonable SCUBA integrations we might expect to detect those few Lyman break galaxies that are far-infrared brightest.     

Rotation of orbital currents in the trains of internal solitons in the ocean

We analyze the results of measurements of currents in the trains of internal solitons on the New-York shelf of the Atlantic Ocean performed in the course of the Joint US/Russia Internal Wave Remote Sensing Experiment (JUSREX). It was discovered that the thermocline is characterized by an almost monotonic anticyclonic variation of the direction of orbital currents in the trains of solitons but the direction of waves in each train is practically constant. As a rule, the current significantly deviates to the left from the direction of waves in the leading soliton and approaches the indicated direction in the rear solitons of the train. The angular rotation current velocity corresponded to periods varying within the range 12–24h and, on the average, was close to the local inertial period. It is shown that this rotation cannot be caused by the distorting influence of advection of background shear currents but, most likely, is connected with the unknown properties of internal solitons in the rotating ocean. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev