Ground motion characterization and seismic hazard assessment in Spain: context,problems and recent developments

This article points out some particular features conditioning seismic hazard assessments (SHA) in Spain, a region with low–moderate seismicity. Although sized earthquakes occurred in the past, as evidenced by historical documents and neotectonic studies, no large events occurred during the last decades. The absence of strong motion records corresponding to earthquakes with magnitude larger than 5.5 is an important obstacle for the development of ground motion models constrained by local data, with the consequent difficulty in SHA studies. In this paper, some recent developments aiming at providing solutions to these difficulties are presented. Specifically, a strong motion databank containing a massive collection of accelerograms and response spectra from different configurations source-path-site corresponding to earthquakes all over the world is introduced, together with software utilities for its management. A first application of this databank is the development of specific ground motion models for Spain and for the Mediterranean region that predict peak ground accelerations as a function of several definitions of magnitude, distance and soil class. The predictive power of these ground motion models is tested by contrasting their estimates with recently recorded ground motions. The comparison between our ground-motion models with others proposed in the literature for other areas reveals a regular overestimation of the expected ground motions at Spanish sites by the non-local models. Consequently, SHA studies based in external models may overestimate the predicted hazard at the Iberian sites. In the last part of the paper a method for checking whether the response spectra proposed in the Spanish Building Code (NCSE-02) are consistent with actual accelerometric data from recent low magnitude earthquakes is applied. The spectral shapes of the Spanish Building Code NCSE-02 are compared with the response spectral shapes deduced from the available accelerograms by normalising the response spectra with the recorded PGA. It is appreciated that the NCSE-02 spectral shapes are exceeded by a large number of actual spectral shapes for short periods (around 0.2 s), a result to be taken into account in further revisions of the NCSE-02 code. The issues tackled in this work constitute not only an improvement for ground-motion characterisation in Spain, but also provide guidelines of general interest for potential applications in other regions with similar seismicity.     

SPECIFIC DEGRADATION OF WATERSHEDS

An extensive database of reservoir sedimentation surveys throughout continental United States is compiled and analyzed to determine specific degradation SD relationships as function of mean annual rainfall R, drainage area A, and watershed slope S. The database contains 1463 field measurements and specific degradation relationships are defined as function of A, R and S. Weak trends and significant variability in the data are noticeable. Specific degradation measurements are log normally distributed with respect to R, A, and S and 95% confidence intervals are determined accordingly. The accuracy of the predictions does not significantly increase as more independent variables are added to the regression analyses.     

Inshore/offshore gradients of imposex and organotin contamination in Nassarius reticulatus (L.) along the Portuguese coast

Imposex and organotin (OT) tissue contamination of the netted whelk Nassarius reticulatus (L.) were assessed in the continental shelves around the main estuaries of the central coast of Portugal (Lisbon: Tagus estuary; Setúbal: Sado estuary) and the main coastal lagoon in the Southern of Portugal (Faro: Ria Formosa). Pollution levels were higher in areas of more intense boat traffic and shipyard activities and imposex showed a clear decreasing gradient from the estuaries to the offshore, in relation to a similar gradient of tissue contamination by tributyltin. Remarkably, imposex was extensively spread over the adjacent continental shelves of Tagus and Sado estuaries. The current work shows that TBT pollution is undoubtedly a matter of concern not only for the above estuaries where harbours are implanted but also for the adjacent continental shelves, regardless the massive dilution of contaminants that may occur in these deeper areas.     

Assessment of the ecological quality status of soft-bottoms in Reunion Island (tropical Southwest Indian Ocean) using AZTI marine biotic indices

The ability of the two synthetic marine biotic indices, AMBI and M-AMBI, to account for changes in the ecological quality of coastal soft bottoms of Reunion Island according to disturbances was assessed from macrobenthic samples collected in five sectors between 1994 and 2004. Samples were collected under non-perturbed conditions and at two sites subjected to heavy organic enrichment. Both indices are based on a classification of macrofauna into ecological groups (EG), and their transfer to tropical waters required some adaptations. These indices proved efficient in detecting a degradation of habitat quality. Their use resulted in the classification of all sites sampled between 1996 and 1998 as "good" or "high". M-AMBI nevertheless tended to result in the attribution of a slightly worse ecological quality status than AMBI. Together with an update of the EG species list for the Indian Ocean area, our results support the extension of both indices for the assessment of tropical soft bottoms.     

Simulating rainfall time-series: how to account for statistical variability at multiple scales?

Daily rainfall is a complex signal exhibiting alternation of dry and wet states, seasonal fluctuations and an irregular behavior at multiple scales that cannot be preserved by stationary stochastic simulation models. In this paper, we try to investigate some of the strategies devoted to preserve these features by comparing two recent algorithms for stochastic rainfall simulation: the first one is the modified Markov model, belonging to the family of Markov-chain based techniques, which introduces non-stationarity in the chain parameters to preserve the long-term behavior of rainfall. The second technique is direct sampling, based on multiple-point statistics, which aims at simulating a complex statistical structure by reproducing the same data patterns found in a training data set. The two techniques are compared by first simulating a synthetic daily rainfall time-series showing a highly irregular alternation of two regimes and then a real rainfall data set. This comparison allows analyzing the efficiency of different elements characterizing the two techniques, such as the application of a variable time dependence, the adaptive kernel smoothing or the use of low-frequency rainfall covariates. The results suggest, under different data availability scenarios, which of these elements are more appropriate to represent the rainfall amount probability distribution at different scales, the annual seasonality, the dry-wet temporal pattern, and the persistence of the rainfall events.     

Assessment of soil factors controlling ephemeral gully erosion on agricultural fields

The soil factor is crucial in controlling and properly modeling the initiation and development of ephemeral gullies (EGs). Usually, EG initiation has been related to various soil properties (i.e. sealing, critical shear stress, moisture, texture, etc.); meanwhile, the total growth of each EG (erosion rate) has been linked with proper soil erodibility. But, despite the studies to determine the influence of soil erodibility on (ephemeral) gully erosion, a universal approach is still lacking. This is due to the complex relationship and interactions between soil properties and the erosive process. A feasible soil characterization of EG erosion prediction on a large scale should be based on simple, quick and inexpensive tests to perform. The objective of this study was to identify and assess the soil properties – easily and quickly to determine – which best reflect soil erodibility on EG erosion. Forty‐nine different physical–chemical soil properties that may participate in establishing soil erodibility were determined on agricultural soils affected by the formation of EGs in Spain and Italy. Experiments were conducted in the laboratory and in the field (in the vicinity of the erosion paths). Because of its importance in controlling EG erosion, five variables related to antecedent moisture prior to the event that generated the gullies and two properties related to landscape topography were obtained for each situation. The most relevant variables were detected using multivariate analysis. The results defined 13 key variables: water content before the initiation of EGs, organic matter content, cation exchange capacity, relative sealing index, two granulometric and organic matter indices, seal permeability, aggregates stability (three index), crust penetration resistance, shear strength and an erodibility index obtained from the Jet Test erosion apparatus. The latter is proposed as a useful technique to evaluate and predict soil loss caused by EG erosion. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the significance of the climate-dataset time resolution in characterising wind-driven rain and simultaneous wind pressure. Part I: scalar approach

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - The joint action of wind-driven rain and wind pressure is the main cause of water penetration in building facades, which causes various...