Forecasting ocean wave energy: The ECMWF wave model and time series methods

Recently, the technology has been developed to make wave farms commercially viable. Since electricity is perishable, utilities will be interested in forecasting ocean wave energy. The horizons involved in short-term management of power grids range from as little as a few hours to as long as several days. In selecting a method, the forecaster has a choice between physics-based models and statistical techniques. A further idea is to combine both types of models. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of a well-known physics-based model, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Wave Model, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regressions and neural networks. Thirteen data sets at locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico are tested. The quantities to be predicted are the significant wave height, the wave period, and the wave energy flux. In the initial tests, the ECMWF model and the statistical models are compared directly. The statistical models do better at short horizons, producing more accurate forecasts in the 1-5 h range. The ECMWF model is superior at longer horizons. The convergence point, at which the two methods achieve comparable degrees of accuracy, is in the area of 6 h. By implication, the physics-based model captures the underlying signals at lower frequencies, while the statistical models capture relationships over shorter intervals. Further tests are run in which the forecasts from the ECMWF model are used as inputs in regressions and neural networks. The combined models yield more accurate forecasts than either one individually.     

HP–UHP metamorphism as an indicator of slab dip variations in the Alpine arc

HP/UHP and LT metamorphic units that commonly occur in the inner parts of mountain belts result from the subduction of continental and oceanic material, most often exhumed prior to continental collision. The prograde pressure–temperature history of HP–UHP rocks strongly depends on the convergence rate and on the subduction zone geometry. The maximum pressure recorded provides a proxy for the depth of shearing off and stacking of HP metamorphic nappes. A 2-D thermal model of continental subduction at lithospheric scale is used to compute the length and pressure peak of detached HP metamorphic units as a function of the slab dip angle and the convergence rate. Model results are applied to the metamorphic nappe pile of the inner Alps. A mean convergence rate of 1 cm/year during the subduction of the Briançonnais terrane is indicated by the paleogeographic reconstructions between 46 and 38 Ma. On this basis, the available petrological data and lengths of metamorphic units are used to compute the variations of the slab dip angle. The slab dip angle is shown to increase, from the northeast to the southwest, along the Alpine arc with estimated values of 20° for Suretta, 30–45° for Monte Rosa and Gran Paradiso, and 60° for Dora Maira. From Eocene to Oligocene times, the increase in slab dip angle is controlled by changes of buoyancy, due to the spatial configuration of the Valaisan trough and the incoming of crustal material within the subduction zone.     

First detailed description of Hispanomys decedens (Rodentia) from the Middle Miocene of La Grive-Saint Alban (France)

The material of Hispanomys decedens (Rodentia, Cricetodontinae) from La Grive-Saint Alban (France) is described in detail for the first time. H. decedens, which is one of the oldest species of the genus, shows the primitive character states that are typical of the Aragonian congeneric species, such as the mesolophs and labial cingula surrounding the upper molar valleys. The detailed examination of the teeth of H. decedens shows that this taxon is a good candidate ancestor for H. aragonensis.     

Varved sediments of Lake Yoa (Ounianga Kebir,Chad) reveal progressive drying of the Sahara during the last 6100 years

The sedimentological and geochemical properties of a 7·47 m long laminated sequence from hypersaline Lake Yoa in northern Chad have been investigated, representing a unique, continuous 6100 year long continental record of climate and environmental change in the eastern Central Sahara. These data were used to reconstruct the Mid to Late Holocene history of this currently hyper‐arid region, in order to address the question of whether the Mid Holocene environmental transition from a humid to a dry Sahara was progressive or abrupt. This study involved a suite of analyses, including petrographic and scanning electron microscope examination of thin sections, X‐ray diffraction, X‐radiography, granulometry, loss on ignition and magnetic susceptibility. The potential of micro‐X‐ray fluorescence core scanning was tested at very high resolution. Detailed microscopic investigation revealed the sedimentary processes responsible for the formation of the fine laminations, identified the season during which they were formed, and confirmed their annually rhythmic nature. High‐resolution X‐ray fluorescence core scanning allowed the distinction of each individual lamination over the entire record, opening new perspectives for the study of finely laminated sediment sequences. Geochemical and mineralogical data reveal that, due to decreasing monsoon rainfall combined with continuous and strong evaporation, the hydrologically open and fresh Mid Holocene Lake Yoa slowly evolved into the present‐day hypersaline brine depleted in calcium, which has existed for about the past 1050 years. During the oldest part of the investigated period, Lake Yoa probably contained a permanently stratified lower water column that was nevertheless disrupted relatively frequently by mixing events. Deep‐water anoxia became more stable because of increased salinity‐driven density stratification. In parallel, the sediment grain‐size proxies record a progressive increase of aeolian input in the course of the last 6100 years. Altogether, all geochemical and sedimentological indicators point to a progressive drying of the eastern Central Sahara, strengthening previous conclusions based on palaeoecological indicators.     

Weathering of ordinary chondrites from the Atacama Desert,Chile, by Mössbauer spectroscopy and synchrotron radiation X‐ray diffraction

Some terrestrial areas have climatic and geomorphologic features that favor the preservation, and therefore, accumulation of meteorites. The Atacama Desert in Chile is among the most important of such areas, known as DCA. This desert is the driest on Earth, one of the most arid, uninhabitable localities with semiarid, arid, and hyper‐arid conditions. The meteorites studied here were collected from within the DCA of San Juan and Pampa de Mejillones, located, respectively, in the Central Depression and the Coastal Range of the Atacama Desert. ⁵⁷Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy was used for quantitative analysis of the degree of weathering of the meteorites, through the determination of the proportions of the various Fe‐bearing phases and in particular the amount of oxidized iron in terrestrial alteration products. The abundance of ferric ions in weathered chondrites can be related to specific precursor compositions and to the level of terrestrial weathering. The aim of the study was the identification, quantification, and differentiation of the weathering products in the ordinary chondrites found in the San Juan and the Pampa de Mejillones areas of the Atacama Desert. The ⁵⁷Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy study was complemented by synchrotron radiation X‐ray diffraction and magnetic susceptibility measurements. The results allow a clear differentiation of the rate of weathering in meteorite samples collected from the San Juan versus the Pampa de Mejillones areas of the Atacama Desert.     

Changes in Nutrient Biogeochemistry in Response to the Regression of Zostera noltii Meadows in the Arcachon Bay (France)

From 1989 to 2007, a severe decline in Zostera noltii meadows was reported in the Arcachon Bay, with an accelerated regression after 2005. We investigated the inter-annual variability of the biogeochemistry of the sediment in an area affected by seagrass decline. In late summer and in winter of the years 2006, 2010, and 2011, sediment cores were collected at low tide on vegetated and adjacent non-vegetated sediments located in the eastern part of the Arcachon Bay. The geochemical analyses of sediment solid-phase organic carbon, reactive P and Fe, and the pore water concentrations of Fe²⁺, DIP, and NH₄ ⁺ are presented. The changes in the chemistry of sediment and pore water between 2006 and 2010 are interpreted as a consequence of the decrease in the Z. noltii biomass between 2006 and 2010. The absence of significant seasonal variations in biomass throughout the growth period (March–September) in 2011 is most likely related to the regression of Z. noltii meadow that strongly affects the study area. In contrast to the healthy meadow in 2006, the declining meadow favored the dissolution of sedimentary particulate phosphorus in winter. In late summer, the low biomass of seagrass resulted in a net release of ammonium in the pore water of the upper 20 cm of sediment. This study clearly shows that seagrass decay may enhance nutrient release in sediments, resulting in a significant supply of phosphorus to the water column of a magnitude comparable to annual inputs to the lagoon from the rivers and the tidal pump.     

Relations entre déformation et métamorphisme alpin dans les schistes noirs helvétiques : l’apport de la fabrique magnétique

Résumé

La fabrique magnétique des schistes noirs du Jurassique helvétique au pourtour des massifs de l’Aar et du Gothard (Alpes suisses) reflète, en fonction du métamorphisme croissant, l’orientation préférentielle de minéraux magnétiques d’origines diverses : la magnétite primaire, les phyllosilicates et la pyrrhotite métamorphiques. La foliation magnétique est parallèle à la première schistosité pénétrative même si celle-ci est effacée par une seconde schistosité. La linéation magnétique indique retirement lié à la direction de transport des nappes. Dans la partie la plus métamorphique où apparaît la pyrrhotite au cours de la déformation, la fabrique magnétique permet de situer l’apparition de ce minéral dans la tectonique polyphasée. Les propriétés magnétiques anisotropes de la pyrrhotite s’avèrent plus complexes que le modèle usuel de marqueurs planaires et l’interprétation des linéations observées doit en tenir compte.     

Application of trichloroacetic acid (TCA) to extraction of soft body for the determination of tissue Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn in the prosobranch Hydrobia ulvae (Pennant)

The application of trichloroacetic acid (TCA) as a shell extractant for preparation of soft body parts with reference to tissue metal concentrations (Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn) in shellfish has been evaluated on the example of the mud snail Hydrobia ulvae, a small marine prosobranch densely present in rocky and soft-bottom habitats of the eastern Atlantic. A solution of 0.1 M TCA was tested on individuals treated according to two different protocols: (1) thawed after freezing ("non-dried") and (2) thawed and air-dried to a constant weight ("dried"). Two points were investigated in detail to improve the method: individual soft tissue dry weight and tissue metal concentration following a standard digestion method. In both instances, the results were compared with those from manually dissected snails. Conditions for total shell decalcification of 60 individuals (3-4 mm long) were 5.5 h in 20 ml of 0.1 M TCA.No differences in individual soft tissue weight were observed between the treatments, indicating good efficiency of the TCA extraction with respect to weight of soft body parts. In contrast, tissue metal concentrations varied among treatments. The TCA extraction of the dried animals had a good recovery for Cd, most likely due to the lower solubility of Cd vital cellular components (proteins and mineral concretions) from the dried tissue. Satisfactory recoveries of the tissue concentrations of Cu and Pb were obtained for the non-dried individuals. This might be related to the specific distribution of metals in the organism (namely in the digestive glands and gonads) and their different chemical reactivity with TCA after the tissue was dried. Limited susceptibility of Zn-bearing protein bindings to complexing with TCA also accounts for significantly lower concentrations of Zn in the mud snail's soft tissue that was extracted. The 0.1 M TCA solution is therefore recommended for extraction of the shells of Hydrobia ulvae for tissue determination of Cd, Cu and Pb; however the treatment protocol does affect metal recovery and thus a consistent procedure should be followed.The extracted metals from the soft tissues and shells of the mud snails (on the basis of both metal concentrations and contents) were ranked in order of increasing contribution of soft body parts to the total (shell+tissue): Pb相似文献   

Late-Holocene equatorial environments inferred from deposition processes,carbon isotopes of organic matter,and pollen in three shallow lakes of Gabon,west-central Africa

Seven vibro-cores were collected from three shallow lakes of the Gabon (Kamalété, Nguène, Maridor) along a 300-km west–east transect close to the Equator. These lakes are located in very distinct landscapes: coastal forest-savanna mosaic, rain forest and savanna with colonising forest, respectively. Core chronologies were established by radiocarbon dating. Study of these lacustrine archives (textural variables, clay minerals, organic matter components, δ¹³C, pollen) allowed comparison of late Holocene environmental changes recorded at each site and with results from other studies. Lake Kamalété indicates minor climatic deterioration (increased drying and greater seasonality) between 1,410 and 500 cal. years BP, which is also recognised in southern Cameroon and east-central Africa. Lake Nguène was surrounded by dense moist forest throughout the last 4,110 years, but shows significant deterioration from ~2,800 cal. years BP, a phenomenon seen at nearby sites. Lake Maridor shows a decline of forest initiated a little after 3,800 cal. years BP, which indicates timing that is distinct from the two other sites. This was probably a response to local conditions (i.e. outlet damming). Although the three lakes display generally parallel climatic trends perhaps linked to SST oscillations, there is not perfect coherence between these three sites. Differences among the three basins may be attributable to local factors like groundwater hydrology and slope instabilities of such shallow lake systems in this equatorial region.