A Workflow for Static Reservoir Modeling Guided by Seismic Data in a Fluvial System

Realistic and accurate static geologic models are an essential element needed to predict the behavior of subsurface reservoirs and play an important role in petroleum engineering. Data used in the development of a static geologic model are gathered from various sources, such as seismic, log, and core data, each of them providing information on different physical properties of interest and with varying degrees of resolution. Compiling all data from various sources into a single representation of the subsurface formation of interest is a daily challenge for many petroleum geologists and engineers. This paper describes a framework to develop and select process-mimicking models that are consistent with available seismic attributes, namely impedance. Using a process-mimicking modeling package, 75 models of a fluvial meandering system are generated, one of which is chosen as the “true” model and masked thereafter. The implemented selection method relies on the degree of similarity in the histogram of representations of clusters of all possible patterns in the seismic impedance domain based on each process-mimicking model and that of the “true” model at several resolutions. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the use of a weighted average divergence distance across multiple levels to select process-mimicking models that honor seismic data the best.     

Interpretation of magnetic and gravity gradient tensor data using normalized source strength – A case study from McFaulds Lake,Northern Ontario,Canada

In this paper, we present a case study on the use of the normalized source strength (NSS) for interpretation of magnetic and gravity gradient tensors data. This application arises in exploration of nickel, copper and platinum group element (Ni‐Cu‐PGE) deposits in the McFaulds Lake area, Northern Ontario, Canada. In this study, we have used the normalized source strength function derived from recent high resolution aeromagnetic and gravity gradiometry data for locating geological bodies. In our algorithm, we use maxima of the normalized source strength for estimating the horizontal location of the causative body. Then we estimate depth to the source and structural index at that point using the ratio between the normalized source strength and its vertical derivative calculated at two levels; the measurement level and a height h above the measurement level. To discriminate more reliable solutions from spurious ones, we reject solutions with unreasonable estimated structural indices. This method uses an upward continuation filter which reduces the effect of high frequency noise. In the magnetic case, the advantage is that, in general, the normalized magnetic source strength is relatively insensitive to magnetization direction, thus it provides more reliable information than standard techniques when geologic bodies carry remanent magnetization. For dipping gravity sources, the calculated normalized source strength yields a reliable estimate of the source location by peaking right above the top surface. Application of the method on aeromagnetic and gravity gradient tensor data sets from McFaulds Lake area indicates that most of the gravity and magnetic sources are located just beneath a 20 m thick (on average) overburden and delineated magnetic and gravity sources which can be probably approximated by geological contacts and thin dikes, come up to the overburden.     

Uncertainty assessment of ephemeral gully identification,characteristics and topographic threshold when using aerial photographs in agricultural settings

Manual digitizing on aerial photographs is still commonly used for characterizing gully erosion over large areas. Even when automated detection procedures are implemented, manual digitizing is frequently being resorted to in order to constitute reference datasets used for training and validation. In both cases, manual digitizing entails some subjective decisions on behalf of the operator, which introduces uncertainty into the resulting datasets. To assess the magnitude of this uncertainty, 11 experienced operators were asked to digitize and classify ephemeral gullies (EGs) on cropland following a standardized methodology. The resulting 11 datasets were compared in terms of number, type and location of EGs. Furthermore, for EGs located on a well‐defined runoff flow concentration axis, the slope versus contributing area topographic thresholds required for initiating gully channels were assessed using four thresholding methods, and compared across the 11 datasets. The operators identified 259 different EGs. However, the number (52–139) and sum total length (8.9–23.7 km) of EGs varied widely across operators. Only 34% of the EGs were digitized by more than half of the operators, and 7% were identified by all. Identification of EGs located on a well‐defined flow concentration axis proved least subjective. The longer the EG and the more fields the EG crossed, the larger the number of operators that were able to identify it. EGs were also most easily identified when located in sugar beet fields as compared to other crops. EG classification and topographic threshold lines were also found to be strongly operator‐dependent. Quantile regression appeared to be one of the most robust thresholding methods. Operator subjectivity when digitizing EGs on orthophotographs introduces uncertainty that should be taken into account in future remote sensing‐based studies of EG erosion whenever they rely, in part or in full, on manual photograph interpretation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system

Abstract

This article presents a comparison between real-time discharges calculated by a flash-flood warning system and post-event flood peak estimates. The studied event occurred on 15 and 16 June 2010 at the Argens catchment located in the south of France. Real-time flood warnings were provided by the AIGA (Adaptation d’Information Géographique pour l’Alerte en Crue) warning system, which is based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1-km² resolution using radar rainfall information. The timing of the warnings (updated every 15 min) was compared to the observed flood impacts. Furthermore, “consolidated” flood peaks estimated by an intensive post-event survey were used to evaluate the AIGA-estimated peak discharges. The results indicated that the AIGA warnings clearly identified the most affected areas. However, the effective lead-time of the event detection was short, especially for fast-response catchments, because the current method does not take into account any rainfall forecast. The flood peak analysis showed a relatively good correspondence between AIGA- and field-estimated peak values, although some differences were due to the rainfall underestimation by the radar and rainfall–runoff model limitations.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Pansu, J. and Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1390–1402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923970     

Impacts of climate change on coastal benthic ecosystems: assessing the current risk of mortality outbreaks associated with thermal stress in NW Mediterranean coastal areas

In the framework of climate change, the increase in ocean heat wave frequency is expected to impact marine life. Large-scale positive temperature anomalies already occurred in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea in 1999, 2003 and 2006. These anomalies were associated with mass mortality events of macrobenthic species in coastal areas (0–40 m in depth). The anomalies were particularly severe in 1999 and 2003 when thousands of kilometres of coasts and about 30 species were affected. The aim of this study was to develop a methodology to assess the current risk of mass mortality associated with temperature increase along NW Mediterranean continental coasts. A 3D regional ocean model was used to obtain the temperature conditions for the period 2001–2010, for which the model outputs were validated by comparing them with in situ observations in affected areas. The model was globally satisfactory, although extremes were underestimated and required correction. Combined with information on the thermo-tolerance of a key species (the red gorgonian P. clavata) as well as its spatial distribution, the modelled temperature conditions were then used to assess the risk of mass mortality associated with thermal stress for the first time. Most of the known areas of observed mass mortality were found using the model, although the degree of risk in certain areas was underestimated. Using climatic IPCC scenarios, the methodology could be applied to explore the impacts of expected climate change in the NW Mediterranean. This is a key issue for the development of sound management and conservation plans to protect Mediterranean marine biodiversity in the face of climate change.     

Coupled ‘storm‐flood’ depositional model: Application to the Miocene–Modern Baram Delta Province,north‐west Borneo

The Miocene to Modern Baram Delta Province is a highly efficient source to sink system that has accumulated 9 to 12 km of coastal–deltaic to shelf sediments over the past 15 Myr. Facies analysis based on ca 1 km of total vertical outcrop stratigraphy, combined with subsurface geology and sedimentary processes in the present‐day Baram Delta Province, suggests a ‘storm‐flood’ depositional model comprising two distinct periods: (i) fair‐weather periods are dominated by alongshore sediment reworking and coastal sand accumulation; and (ii) monsoon‐driven storm periods are characterized by increased wave‐energy and offshore‐directed downwelling storm flow that occur simultaneously with peak fluvial discharge caused by storm precipitation (‘storm‐floods’). The modern equivalent environment has the following characteristics: (i) humid‐tropical monsoonal climate; (ii) narrow (ca <100 km) and steep (ca 1°), densely vegetated, coastal plain; (iii) deep tropical weathering of a mudstone‐dominated hinterland; (iv) multiple independent, small to moderate‐sized (10² to 10⁵ km²) drainage basins; (v) predominance of river‐mouth bypassing; and (vi) supply‐dominated shelf. The ancient, proximal part of this system (the onshore Belait Formation) is dominated by strongly cyclical sandier‐upward successions (metre to decametre‐scale) comprising (from bottom to top): (i) finely laminated mudstone with millimetre‐scale silty laminae; (ii) heterolithic sandstone–mudstone alternations (centimetre to metre‐scale); and (iii) sharp‐based, swaley cross‐stratified sandstone beds and bedsets (metre to decimetre‐scale). Gutter casts (decimetre to metre‐scale) are widespread, they are filled with swaley cross‐stratified sandstone and their long axes are oriented perpendicular to the palaeo‐shoreline. The gutter casts and other associated waning‐flow event beds suggest that erosion and deposition was controlled by high‐energy, offshore‐directed, oscillatory‐dominated, sediment‐laden combined flows within a shoreface to delta front setting. The presence of multiple river mouths and exceptionally high rates of accommodation creation (characteristic of the Neogene to Recent Baram Delta Province; up to 3000 m Ma⁻¹), in a ‘storm‐flood’‐dominated environment, resulted in a highly efficient and effective offshore‐directed sediment transport system.