Precursory slope distress prior to the 2010 Mount Meager landslide,British Columbia

In 2010, the south flank of Mount Meager failed catastrophically, generating the largest (53 ± 3.8 × 10⁶ m³) landslide in Canadian history. We document the slow deformation of the edifice prior to failure using archival historic aerial photographs spanning the period 1948–2006. All photos were processed using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry. We used the SfM products to produce pre-and post-failure geomorphic maps that document changes in the volcanic edifice and Capricorn Glacier at its base. The photographic dataset shows that the Capricorn Glacier re-advanced from a retracted position in the 1980s then rapidly retreated in the lead-up to the 2010 failure. The dataset also documents 60 years of progressive development of faults, toe bulging, and precursory failures in 1998 and 2009. The 2010 collapse was conditioned by glacial retreat and triggered by hot summer weather that caused ice and snow to melt. Meltwater increased pore water pressures in colluvium and fractured rocks at the base of the slope, causing those materials to mobilize, which in turn triggered several secondary failures structurally controlled by lithology and faults. The landslide retrogressed from the base of the slope to near the peak of Mount Meager involving basement rock and the overlying volcanic sequence. Elsewhere on the flanks of Mount Meager, large fractures have developed in recently deglaciated areas, conditioning these slopes for future collapse. Potential failures in these areas have larger volumes than the 2010 landslide. Anticipated atmospheric warming over the next several decades will cause further loss of snow and glacier ice, likely producing additional slope instability. Satellite- and ground-based monitoring of these slopes can provide advanced warning of future landslides to help reduce risk in populated regions downstream.     

Macrofaunal density and biomass in the Campeche Canyon, Southwestern Gulf of Mexico

The composition, density and community structure of the benthic macrofauna were investigated in sediments of the Campeche Canyon in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Total macrofaunal density ranged from 9466±2736 ind m⁻² at the continental shelf station to 1550±195 ind m⁻² in the canyon. Density values significantly diminished with distance from the coast and depth; only a few stations in the center of the canyon displayed larger density values (E-37 with 4666±1530 ind m⁻², E-36 with 5791±642 ind m⁻² and E-26 with 6925±2258 ind m⁻²). Densities were positively correlated to organic nitrogen in the sediment (r=0.82) and coarse silt (r=0.43), and negatively with depth (r=−0.74) and distance from the coast (r=−0.68). At all stations, the polychaete worms contributed most to the multi-species community structure. The nematodes and Foraminifera displayed their highest densities in the center of the canyon. The biomass values declined significantly with depth. We conclude that the macrofauna density and biomass changed in response to organic matter contents in the sediment, both with distance from the coast and with depth.     

Some characteristics of an S-component of solar radiation identified on November 1966 eclipse at 4.28-cm wavelength

A strong S-component of solar radiation was identified during the total solar eclipse of November 12, 1966. Its characteristics, as measured at 4.28 cm, were studied in terms of flux and polarization, and its spectral features were derived by the use of data from other observatories. The whole source presented approximately the typical characteristics suggested by some authors in the last few years, and further it has been shown that it could be resolved into at least two enhanced regions, one showing unpolarized radiation with a brightness temperature T _b 1.2 × 10⁶ °K, and the other showing 50% of left-handed circularly polarized radiation, with T _b 0.7 × 10⁶ °K. The source's overall characteristics favour the presence of non-thermal absorption at the emitting regions.     

Fast and direct nonparametric procedures in the L-moment homogeneity test

Regional frequency analysis is an important tool to properly estimate hydrological characteristics at ungauged or partially gauged sites in order to prevent hydrological disasters. The delineation of homogeneous groups of sites is an important first step in order to transfer information and obtain accurate quantile estimates at the target site. The Hosking–Wallis homogeneity test is usually used to test the homogeneity of the selected sites. Despite its usefulness and good power, it presents some drawbacks including the subjective choice of a parametric distribution for the data and a poorly justified rejection threshold. The present paper addresses these drawbacks by integrating nonparametric procedures in the L-moment homogeneity test. To assess the rejection threshold, three resampling methods (permutation, bootstrap and Pólya resampling) are considered. Results indicate that permutation and bootstrap methods perform better than the parametric Hosking–Wallis test in terms of power as well as in time and procedure simplicity. A real-world case study shows that the nonparametric tests agree with the HW test concerning the homogeneity of the volume and the bivariate case while they disagree for the peak case, but that the assumptions of the HW test are not well respected.     

Forecasting ocean wave energy: The ECMWF wave model and time series methods

Recently, the technology has been developed to make wave farms commercially viable. Since electricity is perishable, utilities will be interested in forecasting ocean wave energy. The horizons involved in short-term management of power grids range from as little as a few hours to as long as several days. In selecting a method, the forecaster has a choice between physics-based models and statistical techniques. A further idea is to combine both types of models. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of a well-known physics-based model, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Wave Model, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regressions and neural networks. Thirteen data sets at locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico are tested. The quantities to be predicted are the significant wave height, the wave period, and the wave energy flux. In the initial tests, the ECMWF model and the statistical models are compared directly. The statistical models do better at short horizons, producing more accurate forecasts in the 1-5 h range. The ECMWF model is superior at longer horizons. The convergence point, at which the two methods achieve comparable degrees of accuracy, is in the area of 6 h. By implication, the physics-based model captures the underlying signals at lower frequencies, while the statistical models capture relationships over shorter intervals. Further tests are run in which the forecasts from the ECMWF model are used as inputs in regressions and neural networks. The combined models yield more accurate forecasts than either one individually.     

Assessment of the effects of hydrocarbon contamination on the sedimentary bacterial communities and determination of the polar lipid fraction purity: Relevance of intact phospholipid analysis

This in situ study reports on the relevance of intact phospholipids as new biomarkers and highlights the limits of the classical fatty acid analysis after the hydrolysis of the polar lipid fraction. The analysis of polar lipid fractions revealed significant contributions of marine macrophytes with either non-phospholipid compounds (sulfoquinovosyl diacylglycerol) or with both non-bacterial phospholipid classes (phosphatidylcholine) and non-bacterial phospholipid molecular species (some molecular species of phosphatidylglycerol). The analysis of intact phospholipids showed also the predominance of gram-negative bacteria in sediments whereas the analysis of fatty acids alone cannot confirm such information. Lastly, as regard to the effects of petroleum hydrocarbons on the sedimentary bacterial communities, we observed a higher degree of saturation of the fatty acyl chains of the phospholipids extracted from sediment exposed to a massive and chronic crude oil contamination. Such a result was interpreted as an adaptive response resulting in higher membrane rigidity of the bacterial communities.     

Incidence de la cinetique de decroissance de la temperature apres le choc thermique sur les modifications d'activite des esterases et les possibilites de survie de Scolelepis (malacoceros) fuliginosa (annelide polychete)

Scolelepis fuliginosa reared in the laboratory at 13°C were put through 10-min thermal shocks at 16°C and 18°C and were then submitted to either a slow or a rapid temperature reduction. After the thermal shock, a posterior fragment of each specimen was cut off at intervals, until six days. Samples were submitted to electrophoresis on polyacrylamide gel, esterase activity being determined with α-naphthyl acetate.Enzymograms show that thermal shocks act on esterases in decreasing the activity of the main fractions. Immediate effects result in a very precocious enzymic response; more long-term effects depend on the maximum temperature, the animal's sex and the kinetics of the post-shock thermal reduction.Females are more sensitive than males. For a given Δt, esterase changes are greater and more long-lasting. After a 16°C Δt, a rapid decrease in temperature prevents the loss of activity of the middle and fast fractions in males and delays, by about 10 h, the alteration of female esterases. After 18°C ΔT, loss of activity of the middle and fast fractions occurs in less than 1 h, independently of the thermal kinetics, but survival is only possible—solely for males—with a rapid decrease in temperature which also delays females' deaths by between 24 and 48 h.In conclusion, a rapid decrease in temperature gives organisms a better resistance to thermal shock, as determined by esterase activity and controls the lethality of a high Δt.     

Morphological similarities between DBM and a microeconomic model of sprawl

We present a model that simulates the growth of a metropolitan area on a 2D lattice. The model is dynamic and based on microeconomics. Households show preferences for nearby open spaces and neighbourhood density. They compete on the land market. They travel along a road network to access the CBD. A planner ensures the connectedness and maintenance of the road network. The spatial pattern of houses, green spaces and road network self-organises, emerging from agents individualistic decisions. We perform several simulations and vary residential preferences. Our results show morphologies and transition phases that are similar to Dieletric Breakdown Models (DBM). Such similarities were observed earlier by other authors, but we show here that it can be deducted from the functioning of the land market and thus explicitly connected to urban economic theory.     

Low-degree partial melting trends recorded in upper mantle minerals

The study of glass inclusions inside mantle minerals provides direct information about the chemistry of naturally occurring mantle-derived melts and the fine-scale complexity of the melting process responsible for their genesis. Minerals in a spinel lherzolite nodule from Grande Comore island contain glass inclusions which, after homogenization by heating, exhibit a continuous suite of chemical compositions clearly distinct from that of the host basanitic lava. The compositions range from silicic, with nepheline–olivine normative, 64 wt% SiO₂ and 11 wt% alkali oxides, to almost basaltic, with quartz normative, 50 wt% SiO₂ and 1–2 wt% alkali oxides. Within a single mineral phase, olivine, the inferred primary melt composition varies from 54 to 64 wt% SiO₂ for MgO content ranging from 8 to 0.8 wt%. An experimental study of the glass and fluid inclusions indicates that trapped melts represent liquids that are in equilibrium with their host phases at moderate temperature and pressure (T≈1230°C and P≈1.0 Gpa for melts trapped in olivine). Quantitative modelling of the compositional trends defined in the suite shows that all of the glasses are part of a cogenetic set of melts formed by fractional melting of spinel lherzolite, with F varying between 0.2 and 5%. The initial highly silicic, alkali-rich melts preserved in Mg-rich olivine become richer in FeO, MgO, CaO and Cr₂O₃ and poorer in SiO₂, K₂O, Na₂O, Al₂O₃ and Cl with increasing melt fractions, evolving toward the basaltic melts found in clinopyroxene. These results confirm the connection between glass inclusions inside mantle minerals and partial mantle melts, and indicate that primary melts with SiO₂ >60 wt%, alkali oxides >11%, FeO <1 wt% and MgO <1 wt% are generated during incipient melting of spinel peridotite. The composition of the primary melts is inferred to be dependent on pressure, and to reflect both the speciation of dissolved CO₂ and the effect of alkali oxides on the silica activity coefficient in the melt. At pressures around 1 GPa, low-degree melts are characterized by alkali and silica-rich compositions, with a limited effect of dissolved CO₂ and a decreased silica activity coefficient caused by the presence of alkali oxides, whereas at higher pressures alkali oxides form complexes with carbonates and, consequently, alkali-rich silica-poor melts will be generated.