Variances in the projections,resulting from CLIMEX,Boosted Regression Trees and Random Forests techniques

The aim of this study was to have a comparative investigation and evaluation of the capabilities of correlative and mechanistic modeling processes, applied to the projection of future distributions of date palm in novel environments and to establish a method of minimizing uncertainty in the projections of differing techniques. The location of this study on a global scale is in Middle Eastern Countries. We compared the mechanistic model CLIMEX (CL) with the correlative models MaxEnt (MX), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), and Random Forests (RF) to project current and future distributions of date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.). The Global Climate Model (GCM), the CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) using the A2 emissions scenario, was selected for making projections. Both indigenous and alien distribution data of the species were utilized in the modeling process. The common areas predicted by MX, BRT, RF, and CL from the CS GCM were extracted and compared to ascertain projection uncertainty levels of each individual technique. The common areas identified by all four modeling techniques were used to produce a map indicating suitable and unsuitable areas for date palm cultivation for Middle Eastern countries, for the present and the year 2100. The four different modeling approaches predict fairly different distributions. Projections from CL were more conservative than from MX. The BRT and RF were the most conservative methods in terms of projections for the current time. The combination of the final CL and MX projections for the present and 2100 provide higher certainty concerning those areas that will become highly suitable for future date palm cultivation. According to the four models, cold, hot, and wet stress, with differences on a regional basis, appears to be the major restrictions on future date palm distribution. The results demonstrate variances in the projections, resulting from different techniques. The assessment and interpretation of model projections requires reservations, especially in correlative models such as MX, BRT, and RF. Intersections between different techniques may decrease uncertainty in future distribution projections. However, readers should not miss the fact that the uncertainties are mostly because the future GHG emission scenarios are unknowable with sufficient precision. Suggestions towards methodology and processing for improving projections are included.     

A new approach to identify the sensitivity and importance of physical parameters combination within numerical models using the Lund–Potsdam–Jena (LPJ) model as an example

Daily global solar irradiation (R _s) is one of the main inputs in environmental modeling. Because of the lack of its measuring facilities, high-quality and long-term data are limited. In this research, R _s values were estimated based on measured sunshine duration and cloud cover of our synoptic meteorological stations in central and southern Iran during 2008, 2009, and 2011. Clear sky solar irradiation was estimated from linear regression using extraterrestrial solar irradiation as the independent variable with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 4.69 %. Daily R _s was calibrated using measured sunshine duration and cloud cover data under different sky conditions during 2008 and 2009. The 2011 data were used for model validation. According to the results, in the presence of clouds, the R _s model using sunshine duration data was more accurate when compared with the model using cloud cover data (NRMSE = 11. 69 %). In both models, with increasing sky cloudiness, the accuracy decreased. In the study region, more than 92 % of sunshine durations were clear or partly cloudy, which received close to 95 % of total solar irradiation. Hence, it was possible to estimate solar irradiation with a good accuracy in most days with the measurements of sunshine duration.     

Summer temperature variability across four urban neighborhoods in Knoxville,Tennessee, USA

The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-documented effect of urbanization on local climate, identified by higher temperatures compared to surrounding areas, especially at night and during the warm season. The details of a UHI are city-specific, and microclimates may even exist within a given city. Thus, investigating the spatiotemporal variability of a city’s UHI is an ongoing and critical research need. We deploy ten weather stations across Knoxville, Tennessee, to analyze the city’s UHI and its differential impacts across urban neighborhoods: two each in four neighborhoods, one in more dense tree cover and one in less dense tree cover, and one each in downtown Knoxville and Ijams Nature Center that serve as control locations. Three months of temperature data (beginning 2 July 2014) are analyzed using paired-sample t tests and a three-way analysis of variance. Major findings include the following: (1) Within a given neighborhood, tree cover helps negate daytime heat (resulting in up to 1.19 ^°C lower maximum temperature), but does not have as large of an influence on minimum temperature; (2) largest temperature differences between neighborhoods occur during the day (0.38–1.16 ^°C difference), but larger differences between neighborhoods and the downtown control occur at night (1.04–1.88 ^°C difference); (3) presiding weather (i.e., air mass type) has a significant, consistent impact on the temperature in a given city, and lacks the differential impacts found at a larger-scale in previous studies; (4) distance from city center does not impact temperature as much as land use factors. This is a preliminary step towards informing local planning with a scientific understanding of how mitigation strategies may help minimize the UHI and reduce the effects of extreme weather on public health and well-being.     

The impact of different cooling strategies on urban air temperatures: the cases of Campinas,Brazil and Mendoza,Argentina

This paper describes different ways of reducing urban air temperature and their results in two cities: Campinas, Brazil—a warm temperate climate with a dry winter and hot summer (Cwa), and Mendoza, Argentina—a desert climate with cold steppe (BWk). A high-resolution microclimate modeling system—ENVI-met 3.1—was used to evaluate the thermal performance of an urban canyon in each city. A total of 18 scenarios were simulated including changes in the surface albedo, vegetation percentage, and the H/W aspect ratio of the urban canyons. These results revealed the same trend in behavior for each of the combinations of strategies evaluated in both cities. Nevertheless, these strategies produce a greater temperature reduction in the warm temperate climate (Cwa). Increasing the vegetation percentage reduces air temperatures and mean radiant temperatures in all scenarios. In addition, there is a greater decrease of urban temperature with the vegetation increase when the H/W aspect ratio is lower. Also, applying low albedo on vertical surfaces and high albedo on horizontal surfaces is successful in reducing air temperatures without raising the mean radiant temperature. The best combination of strategies—60 % of vegetation, low albedos on walls and high albedos on pavements and roofs, and 1.5 H/W—could reduce air temperatures up to 6.4 °C in Campinas and 3.5 °C in Mendoza.     

Long-term monitoring of wall paintings affected by soluble salts

Long-term monitoring of wall paintings in historical monuments aims at clarifying involved decay processes and at the same time controlling effects of interventions for conservation. Monitored decay processes relate to the crystallisation of various salts – particularly of nitronatrite and gypsum – from hygroscopic solutions accumulated in the zone of ground moisture. The salts crystallise in response to climatic variations and other environmental changes. Measures for conservation such as protection from water infiltration, reduction of heating temperature and reduction of surface salt accumulation cause a significant slow-down but not a stop of decay. The particular dynamics and causes of remaining slow decay processes are described on three sites in Switzerland: the convent church of Müstair, the crypt in the cathedral of Basel and the crypt in the Grossmünster church of Zürich.     

Mineralogy of suspended sediment in three karst springs

Springs in karstic carbonate rocks frequently carry a sediment load as well as a dissolved load. Analysis of morphology and mineralogy of suspended sediment from three contrasting karst springs reveals a suite of clastic particles that reflect both source areas and processes that take place within the aquifer. Nolte Spring in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, USA, discharges sediment of apparently precipitated calcite, indicating that at some point in the aquifer or vadose zone, water exceeds saturation with respect to calcite. Sediment morphologies and chemical conditions in the aquifer point to two different scenarios for this precipitation. The other two springs, Arch Spring in Blair County, Pennsylvania and Bushkill Spring in Northampton County, Pennsylvania, show no evidence of calcite precipitation. Arch Spring discharges mainly layer silicates, while Bushkill Spring discharges mainly silica.

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Resumen Los manantiales en rocas carbonatadas karstficadas tienen frecuentemente una carga de sedimentos y de sólidos disueltos. Los análisis de la morfología y mineralogía de los sedimentos suspendidos de tres manantiales kársticos contrastados revela un conjunto de partículas clásticas que reflejan ambas áreas fuente y los procesos que tienen lugar dentro del acuífero. Nolte Spring en el Condado de Lancaster, Pennsylvania, USA, descarga sedimento de calcita aparentemente precipitada indicando que en cierto punto del acuífero o en la zona vadosa, el agua supera la saturación con respecto a la calcita. La morfología de los sedimentos y las condiciones químicas en el acuífero apuntan a dos escenarios diferentes para esta precipitación. Los otras dos manantiales, Arch Spring en el Condado de Blair, Pennsylvania y Bushkill Spring en el Condado de Norhtampton, Pennsylvania, no muestran evidencia de precitación de calcita. Arch Spring descarga principalmente filosilicatos mientras que Bushkill Spring descarga fundamentalmente Sílice.

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Résumé Les sources situées en contexte carbonaté karstique charrient fréquemment, outre les matières dissoutes, une charge solide. La morphologie et la minéralogie des sédiments en suspension issus de trois sources karstiques de caractéristiques distinctes ont été analysées : une série de particules clastiques, reflétant à la fois les secteurs des sources et les processus internes de l’aquifère, en ressort. Les sédiments issus de Nolte Spring (Comté de Lancaster, Pennsylvanie, Etats-Unis) sont constitués de calcite apparemment précipitée: ceci indique que l’eau atteint la sursaturation vis-à-vis de la calcite à un certain point de l’aquifère ou de la zone non-saturée. La morphologie des sédiments et les conditions chimiques au sein de l’aquifère mènent à deux scénarii différents pour expliquer cette précipitation. Les deux autres sources, Arch Spring (Comté de Blair, Pennsylvanie) et Bushkill Spring (Comté de Northampton, Pennsylvanie), ne présentent aucun indice de précipitation de calcite. Arch Spring exporte essentiellement des phyllosilicates, alors que la silice est majoritaire à Bushkill Spring.

     

The application of satellite differential SAR interferometry-derived ground displacements in hydrogeology

The application of satellite differential synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry, principally coherent (InSAR) and to a lesser extent, persistent-scatterer (PSI) techniques to hydrogeologic studies has improved capabilities to map, monitor, analyze, and simulate groundwater flow, aquifer-system compaction and land subsidence. A number of investigations over the previous decade show how the spatially detailed images of ground displacements measured with InSAR have advanced hydrogeologic understanding, especially when a time series of images is used in conjunction with histories of changes in water levels and management practices. Important advances include: (1) identifying structural or lithostratigraphic boundaries (e.g. faults or transitional facies) of groundwater flow and deformation; (2) defining the material and hydraulic heterogeneity of deforming aquifer-systems; (3) estimating system properties (e.g. storage coefficients and hydraulic conductivities); and (4) constraining numerical models of groundwater flow, aquifer-system compaction, and land subsidence. As a component of an integrated approach to hydrogeologic monitoring and characterization of unconsolidated alluvial groundwater basins differential SAR interferometry contributes unique information that can facilitate improved management of groundwater resources. Future satellite SAR missions specifically designed for differential interferometry will enhance these contributions.     

On the age calibration of the geomagnetic polarity timescale

Knowledge of the age of undated events is not null if a time-order relationship can be found among these events. The knowledge of such a time-ordered sequence can be formalized by using non-informative (uniform) prior probability densities for the ages of undated events and Bayes' theorem to introduce the time-order relationship condition. We show that the conditional probability densities of the ages of events of unknown age are given by various forms of Euler's beta distribution. These distributions yield an estimate of the probability for an undated event to occur in a given age interval.
  We use this method to propose appropriate probabilistic representations of our actual knowledge of the dating of the magnetic polarity reversals during the Cenozoic. These representations take into account the uncertainties arising from irregularities in accretion process and from the quality of a few calibration points. Both types of uncertainties generate large ambiguities in the age of magnetic reversals, which should be taken into consideration when the geomagnetic polarity timescale is used for dating purposes. We propose to use the entropy function to quantify these ambiguities.     

Analytical solutions of the diffraction problem of a group of truncated vertical cylinders

An exact analytical method is described to solve the diffraction problem of a group of truncated vertical cylinders. In order to account for the interaction between the cylinders, Kagemoto and Yue's exact algebraic method is utilised. The isolated cylinder diffraction potential due to incident waves is obtained using Garret's solution and evanescent mode solutions are derived in a similar manner.Numerical results are presented for arrays of two and four cylinders. Comparisons between the results obtained from the method presented here and those obtained from numerical methods show excellent agreement.     

Modelling of local velocity anomalies: a cookbook

The determination of small-scale velocity anomalies (from tens to a few hundreds of metres) is a major problem in seismic exploration. The impact of such anomalies on a structural interpretation can be dramatic and conventional techniques such as tomographic inversion or migration velocity analysis are powerless to resolve the ambiguity between structural and velocity origins of anomalies. We propose an alternative approach based on stochastic modelling of numerous anomalies until a set of models is found which can explain the real data. This technique attempts to include as much a priori geological information as possible. It aims at providing the interpreter with a set of velocity anomalies which could possibly be responsible for the structural response. The interpreter can then choose one or several preferred models and pursue a more sophisticated analysis. The class of retained models are all equivalent in terms of data and therefore represent the uncertainty in the model space. The procedure emulates the real processing sequence using a simplified scheme. Essentially, the technique consists of five steps: 1 Interpretation of a structural anomaly in terms of a velocity anomaly with its possible variations in terms of position, size and amplitude. 2 Drawing a model by choosing the parameters of the anomaly within the acceptable range. 3 Modelling the traveltimes in this model and producing the imaging of the reflected interface. 4 Comparing the synthetic data with the real data and keeping the model if it lies within the data uncertainty range. 5 Iterate from step 2. In order to avoid the high computational cost inherent in using statistical determinations, simplistic assumptions have been made: ? The anomaly is embedded in a homogeneous medium: we assume that the refraction and the time shift due to the anomaly have a first-order effect compared with ray bending in the intermediate layers. ? We model only the zero-offset rays and therefore we restrict ourselves to structural problems. ? We simulate time migration and so address only models of limited structural complexity. These approximations are justified in a synthetic model which includes strong lateral velocity variations, by comparing the result of a full processing sequence (prestack modelling, stack and depth migration) with the simplified processing. This model is then used in a blind test on the inversion scheme.