Distribution and transport patterns of northern rock sole, Lepidopsetta polyxystra, larvae in the southeastern Bering Sea

We report the size, abundance, and distribution (horizontal, vertical) of northern rock sole, Lepidopsetta polyxystra, larvae collected from ichthyoplankton surveys on the southeastern Bering Sea shelf near Unimak Island, in Unimak Pass, and in the Gulf of Alaska south of Unimak Island. The greatest abundances of larvae occurred within Unimak Pass and in the Bering Sea northeast of Unimak Island. Larvae were smaller and more abundant in 2002 than in 2003. Larval abundance and size varied with depth. Highest abundances were at depths of 10-30 m during the day, and larger fish appeared to migrate from below 20 m to 0-10 m at night. There was evidence of multiple spawning locales and larval dispersal pathways that were depth- and area-specific. Northern rock sole larvae spawned west of Unimak Pass along the Aleutian Islands may be transported northward by the Bering Slope Current. Larvae spawned in the Gulf of Alaska and advected through Unimak Pass are differentially dispersed, primarily to the middle and outer shelves along the 100 m and 200 m isobaths, or along the Alaska Peninsula. Larvae spawned along the Alaska Peninsula east of Unimak Island appear to have the greatest chance of being transported to nursery areas in the coastal domain. Dispersal of near-surface northern rock sole larvae in any of these locations is likely influenced by wind-driven advection, but below-surface (>10 m) northern rock sole larval transport is probably more affected by factors that modulate geostrophic flow rather than wind-driven surface currents.     

Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem

We propose a new hypothesis, the Oscillating Control Hypothesis (OCH), which predicts that pelagic ecosystem function in the southeastern Bering Sea will alternate between primarily bottom-up control in cold regimes and primarily top-down control in warm regimes. The timing of spring primary production is determined predominately by the timing of ice retreat. Late ice retreat (late March or later) leads to an early, ice-associated bloom in cold water (e.g., 1995, 1997, 1999), whereas no ice, or early ice retreat before mid-March, leads to an open-water bloom in May or June in warm water (e.g., 1996, 1998, 2000). Zooplankton populations are not closely coupled to the spring bloom, but are sensitive to water temperature. In years when the spring bloom occurs in cold water, low temperatures limit the production of zooplankton, the survival of larval/juvenile fish, and their recruitment into the populations of species of large piscivorous fish, such as walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias). When continued over decadal scales, this will lead to bottom-up limitation and a decreased biomass of piscivorous fish. Alternatively, in periods when the bloom occurs in warm water, zooplankton populations should grow rapidly, providing plentiful prey for larval and juvenile fish. Abundant zooplankton will support strong recruitment of fish and will lead to abundant predatory fish that control forage fish, including, in the case of pollock, their own juveniles. Piscivorous marine birds and pinnipeds may achieve higher production of young and survival in cold regimes, when there is less competition from large piscivorous fish for cold-water forage fish such as capelin (Mallotus villosus). Piscivorous seabirds and pinnipeds also may be expected to have high productivity in periods of transition from cold regimes to warm regimes, when young of large predatory species of fish are numerous enough to provide forage. The OCH predicts that the ability of large predatory fish populations to sustain fishing pressure will vary between warm and cold regimes.The OCH points to the importance of the timing of ice retreat and water temperatures during the spring bloom for the productivity of zooplankton, and the degree and direction of coupling between zooplankton and forage fish. Forage fish (e.g., juvenile pollock, capelin, Pacific herring [Clupea pallasii]) are key prey for adult pollock and other apex predators. In the southeastern Bering Sea, important changes in the biota since the mid-1970s include a marked increase in the biomass of large piscivorous fish and a concurrent decline in the biomass of forage fish, including age-1 walleye pollock, particularly over the southern portion of the shelf. Populations of northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) and seabirds such as kittiwakes (Rissa spp.) at the Pribilof Islands have declined, most probably in response to a diminished prey base. The available evidence suggests that these changes are unlikely the result of a decrease in total annual new primary production, though the possibility of reduced post-bloom production during summer remains. An ecosystem approach to management of the Bering Sea and its fisheries is of great importance if all of the ecosystem components valued by society are to thrive. Cognizance of how climate regimes may alter relationships within this ecosystem will facilitate reaching that goal.     

The effect of oceanographic variability and interspecific competition on juvenile pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) distributions on the Gulf of Alaska shelf

Results from this study suggest that small-scale variability in the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC) and competition between juvenile pollock and capelin are potential mechanisms affecting the distribution and abundance of fishes in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Fish distributions in Barnabus Trough, off the east coast of Kodiak Island, were assessed using acoustic data collected with a calibrated echosounder during August–September 2002 and 2004. Trawl hauls were conducted to determine the species composition of the fish making up the acoustic backscatter. Oceanographic data were collected from moorings, conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) probes, trawl-mounted microbathythermographs (MBT) and expendable bathythermographs (XBT). National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data were used to assess area winds, and information on regional transport was derived from current meters deployed on moorings north and south of Kodiak Island. The distribution of water-mass properties and fish during 2002 showed variability at the temporal scale of weeks. Juvenile pollock (age-1 and age-2) were initially most abundant in warm, low-salinity water on the inner shelf, whereas capelin were distributed primarily on the outer shelf in cool, high-salinity waters. During a 2-week period juvenile pollock distribution expanded with the offshore expansion of warm, low-salinity water, and capelin abundance in outer-shelf waters decreased. We hypothesize that wind-driven pulsing of the ACC resulted in increased transport of warm, low-salinity water through the study area. In 2004, warm, low-salinity water characterized the inner shelf and cool, high-salinity water was found on the outer shelf. However, the distribution of water-mass properties did not show the weekly scale variability observed in 2002. Area winds were consistently toward the southwest during 2004, such that we would not expect to see the wind-driven pulsing of ACC water that occurred in 2002. Age-1 and age-2 pollock were not observed in Barnabus Trough in 2004. Instead, the midwater acoustic backscatter was composed of capelin mixed with age-0 pollock, and these capelin were not restricted to the outer-shelf waters, but were found primarily in warm, low-salinity inner-shelf waters that had been previously occupied exclusively by age-1 and age-2 pollock. We suggest that this is consistent with inner-shelf waters being preferred foraging habitat for juvenile pollock and capelin. Further study of the mechanisms linking climate change with variability in the ACC is needed, as are studies of the potential for competition between juvenile pollock and capelin.     

Nd,Sr, and O isotopic variations in metaluminous ash-flow tuffs and related volcanic rocks at the Timber Mountain/Oasis Valley Caldera,Complex, SW Nevada: implications for the origin and evolution of large-volume silicic magma bodies

Nd, Sr and O isotopic data were obtained from silicic ash-flow tuffs and lavas at the Tertiary age (16–9 Ma) Timber (Mountain/Oasis Valley volcanic center (TMOV) in southern Nevada, to assess models for the origin and evolution of the large-volume silicic magma bodies generated in this region. The large-volume (>900 km³), chemically-zoned, Topopah Spring (TS) and Tiva Canyon (TC) members of the Paintbrush Tuff, and the Rainier Mesa (RM) and Ammonia Tanks (AT) members of the younger Timber Mountain Tuff all have internal Nd and Sr isotopic zonations. In each tuff, high-silica rhyolites have lower initial _Nd values (1 _Nd unit), higher⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, and lower Nd and Sr contents, than cocrupted trachytes. The TS, TC, and RM members have similar _Nd values for high-silica rhyolites (-11.7 to -11.2) and trachytes (-10.5 to -10.7), but the younger AT member has a higher _Nd for both compositional types (-10.3 and -9.4). Oxygen isotope data confirm that the TC and AT members were derived from low _Nd magmas. The internal Sr and Nd isotopic variations in each tuff are interpreted to be the result of the incorporation of 20–40% (by mass) wall-rock into magmas that were injected into the upper crust. The low _Nd magmas most likely formed via the incorporation of low ¹⁸O, hydrothermally-altered, wall-rock. Small-volume rhyolite lavas and ash-flow tuffs have similar isotopic characteristics to the large-volume ash-flow tuffs, but lavas erupted from extracaldera vents may have interacted with higher ¹⁸O crustal rocks peripheral to the main magma chamber(s). Andesitic lavas from the 13–14 Ma Wahmonie/Salyer volcanic center southeast of the TMOV have low _Nd (-13.2 to -13.8) and are considered on the basis of textural evidence to be mixtures of basaltic composition magmas and large proportions (70–80%) of anatectic crustal melts. A similar process may have occurred early in the magmatic history of the TMOV. The large-volume rhyolites may represent a mature stage of magmatism after repeated injection of basaltic magmas, crustal melting, and volcanism cleared sufficient space in the upper crust for large magma bodies to accumulate and differentiate. The TMOV rhyolites and 0–10 Ma old basalts that erupted in southern Nevada all have similar Nd and Sr isotopic compositions, which suggests that silicic and mafic magmatism at the TMOV were genetically related. The distinctive isotopic compositions of the AT member may reflect temporal changes in the isotopic compositions of basaltic magmas entering the upper crust, possibly as a result of increasing basification of a lower crustal magma source by repeated injection of mantle-derived mafic magmas.     

A Computationally Efficient,Time-Dependent Model of the Solar Wind for Use as a Surrogate to Three-Dimensional Numerical Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations

Solar radiation variability spans a wide range in time, ranging from seconds to decadal and longer. The nearly 40 years of measurements of solar irradiance from space established that the total solar irradiance varies by \(\approx 0.1\%\) in phase with the Sun’s magnetic cycle. Specific intervals of the solar spectrum, e.g., ultraviolet (UV), vary by orders of magnitude more. These variations can affect the Earth’s climate in a complex non-linear way. Specifically, some of the processes of interaction between solar UV radiation and the Earth’s atmosphere involve threshold processes and do not require a detailed reconstruction of the solar spectrum. For this reason a spectral UV index based on the (FUV-MUV) color has been recently introduced. This color is calculated using SORCE SOLSTICE integrated fluxes in the FUV and MUV bands. We present in this work the reconstructions of the solar (FUV-MUV) color and Ca ii K and Mg ii indices, from 1749–2015, using a semi-empirical approach based on the reconstruction of the area coverage of different solar magnetic features, i.e., sunspot, faculae and network. We remark that our results are in noteworthy agreement with latest solar UV proxy reconstructions that exploit more sophisticated techniques requiring historical full-disk observations. This makes us confident that our technique can represent an alternative approach which can complement classical solar reconstruction efforts. Moreover, this technique, based on broad-band observations, can be utilized to estimate the activity on Sun-like stars, that cannot be resolved spatially, hosting extra-solar planetary systems.

     

Effects of subsurface soil characteristics on wetland–groundwater interaction in the coastal plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Ecosystem services provided by depressional wetlands on the coastal plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) have been widely recognized and studied. However, wetland–groundwater interactions remain largely unknown in the CBW. The objective of this study was to examine the vertical interactions of depressional wetlands and groundwater with respect to different subsurface soil characteristics. This study examined two depressional wetlands with a low‐permeability and high‐permeability soil layer on the coastal plain of the CBW. The surface water level (SWL) and groundwater level (GWL) were monitored over 1 year from a well and piezometer at each site, respectively, and those data were used to examine the impacts of subsurface soil characteristics on wetland–groundwater interactions. A large difference between the SWL and GWL was observed at the wetland with a low‐permeability soil layer, although there was strong similarity between the SWL and GWL at the wetland with a high‐permeability soil layer. Our observations also identified a strong vertical hydraulic gradient between the SWL and GWL at the wetland with a high‐permeability soil layer relative to one with a low‐permeability soil layer. The hydroperiod (i.e., the total time of surface water inundation or saturation) of the wetland with a low‐permeability soil layer appeared to rely on groundwater less than the wetland with a high‐permeability soil layer. The findings showed that vertical wetland–groundwater interactions varied with subsurface soil characteristics on the coastal plain of the CBW. Therefore, subsurface soil characteristics should be carefully considered to anticipate the hydrologic behavior of wetlands in this region.     

What future for the voluntary carbon offset market after Paris? An explorative study based on the Discursive Agency Approach

The Paris Agreement heralds a new era in international climate governance. Yet, the Agreement's implementation rulebook is still under negotiation. During this transition, from the Kyoto Protocol to the new regime under the Paris Agreement, many non-state actors are facing a high level of uncertainty. In particular, actors in the voluntary carbon market are struggling to define their new role. The business model of producing carbon credits in developing countries and selling them elsewhere is threatened. Although its financial significance and achieved emission reductions are limited, the voluntary market's role as an incubator for innovation has made it a prominent representative of non-state mitigation mechanisms. Therefore, we ask: What effects will the regime change to the Paris Agreement have on the voluntary carbon offset market (VCM) and how does it react to these effects?

This study analyses perceptions of, and reactions to, the new regulatory environment within the VCM. We apply the Discursive Agency Approach to scrutinize the institutions, discourses and influential agents involved in the VCM, and the strategic practices they apply to manage the transition towards the Paris regime. We find two dominant coping strategies: to align the voluntary offsetting mechanism with the Paris Agreement, and to re-invent its overall purpose as a tool to deliver sustainable development rather than solely emission reductions. Based on these results, we outline ‘thought spaces’ for a future VCM: (1) voluntary and non-party offsetting beyond nationally determined contributions (NDCs), (2) results-based financing for emission reductions and sustainable development, and (3) private climate action under international oversight.

Key policy insights

• The Paris Agreement threatens the VCM's business model, prompting market agents to frame and legitimize their work in new ways.

• The voluntary market's viability depends on the future accounting rules for emission reductions under Paris Agreement Article 6. Discursive struggles surround the risks of double counting and NDC ambitions.

• Based on an understanding of the past, we can draw lessons from agents’ attempts to re-legitimize their role under the new Paris Agreement; their future visions will shape the debates about this nascent regime.