中国季降水量的气候噪声和潜在可预报性估计

利用中国130个测站1961—2004年的日降水量资料,使用低频白噪声延伸法和方差分析法估计了中国季降水量的气候噪声方差和潜在可预报性。结果表明：中国季降水量的气候噪声方差由南向北、由沿海向内陆逐渐减小,且有明显的季节变化,夏季最高,其次是春秋季,冬季最小,而且内陆的季节变化比东南沿海的季节变化显著。季降水量的潜在可预报性有较大的季节和区域差异,但总体来说,全国大部分地区的季降水量是潜在可预报的。以绝对误差小于均方差0.68倍作为预测正确标准,全国大部分地区季降水量的预报正确率上限为50%-60%。     

贵州省罗甸透闪石矿床地质特征及找矿预测

罗甸透闪石矿床属燕山期岩浆热液矿床,成矿作用为接触交代;侵入岩体为辉绿岩,属偏碱性基性幔源浅成岩,岩体呈似层状顺层侵入于二叠系中统栖霞组（P2q）与茅口组（P2m）接触面之间;围岩蚀变有透闪石化和大理岩化,由岩体向外依次分为大理岩化带→透闪石化带;软玉矿体赋存于外接触带茅口组一侧,顺层产出;含矿带厚10～30余米,其中夹矿体十余层,矿体形态以似层状为主,次为透镜状,厚0.05～0.3 m。在1000 km2范围内发现5个辉绿岩体露头,呈带状出露,长3～35 km,显示有矿化,具有较好的找矿远景。     

基于LiDAR的农田地形环境三维重建方法

为克服传统农田土地平整测量方法耗时费力的特点,提出采用LiDAR技术对农田地形进行重建的探索性研究。通过HDL-32E型激光雷达等搭建了系统的硬件平台,应用C++语言编写了系统数据的采集程序;在此基础上对激光雷达所采集数据进行了标定,研究了农田地形重建系统中不同坐标系的转换方法;同时基于最小值去噪法设计了更适用于农田地形点云去噪的均值限差去噪法。通过对比在农田起伏较大区域不同坡度范围内RTK与激光雷达所测单元个数,对系统精度进行了评价;最后实现了车载农田地形重建系统的界面显示、应用与精度评估。结果表明,在10°~15°、25°~30°大坡度范围内激光雷达所获农田地形更为丰富,精度更高。该方法重建的农田地形模型点云数据和原始农田地形点云数据投影面积逼近度可达93%,验证了本文研究方法应用于农田地形环境重建的可行性,同时为今后的土地精细平整工作提供了理论参考与依据。     

快速城市化地区水系结构变化特征——以深圳市为例

为了探讨城市化对水系结构的影响,应用深圳市1982、2002年的二期水系详查图,定量分析了水系长度、密度、分枝比、分枝能力和分维数等参数的变化特征。结果表明: 快速城市化过程中, 深圳市的河道总长度减少、密度减小, 河道数目减少, 特别是低级别的支流减少较多; 河道的分枝比和分枝能力都有不同程度的弱化, 单个水系片区和全市的河流分维数都下降,河流具有简单化的趋势, 河流的多元化特征削弱; 对于不同水系片区来说, 其变化速度不同, 表明城市化过程对水系结构的干扰存在空间差异性。建议强力推进河流的蓝线规划和滨水区的开发管理, 将水网的保护和规划纳入到城市规划的管理范围; 注重在开发利用中的保护, 减少各类新建城市用地、农用地整理过程中对水系的破坏; 加大水土保持力度, 减少因水土流失导致河流淤塞; 加强管理, 严禁向河道中倾倒垃圾。     

不同天气现象下毕节高温特征及预报回归检验分析

利用毕节2010—2019年观测资料,分析不同天气现象下日最高气温特征,建立高温模型,并对近5 a 24 h高温进行检验,得出如下结论：(1)毕节高温日变化在夏季最稳定,春季波动最大。气温日较差晴天最大,阴天最小,多云时略大于阴间多云。(2)毕节8～10成云出现频率高达65.7%,夏季晴天频率波动大,春、夏季多云频率较高,且按天气现象分类统计月平均高温时,其峰值均出现在7月。(3) 24 h高温预报准确率月、季变化特征明显,夏季准确率最高,较最低的冬季高出21.4%,在区别天气现象的情况下,阴雨天时预报准确率最高,多云时最低,其中12月多云时最低为25%。(4)回归模型分析发现不同季节同种天气现象24 h高温预报影响因子权重差异明显,日照时数和平均本站气压对模型影响程度较高。不同季节晴天影响因子差异最大,拟合效果最好时段在夏季,平均估计误差为1.2℃,估计误差最大在冬季,平均估计误差为1.7℃。     

双偏振雷达在毕节一次强风暴中的特征分析

利用习水C波段双偏振雷达和常规气象观测资料对2021年5月9日发生在毕节的一次冰雹和雷暴大风强对流天气特征进行分析,结果表明：上干冷下暖湿层结使得毕节大气层结极不稳定,午后地面辐合线叠加露点锋抬升触发对流形成有组织性的多单体强风暴。反射率因子表现出典型强风暴型雷暴单体特征,有利于大冰雹的生成和发展。双偏振雷达参量Z_DR和CC能有效识别降水粒子类型,其中已识别冰雹区中相关系数ρ_HV异常低值区能较好地反映出大冰雹或超大冰雹特征。阵风锋的出现以及风暴单体底层的冷池出流是百里杜鹃—黔西一线大风出现的主要原因,配合径向速度图上低层强气旋式辐合使得地面大风加强,造成黔西县出现极端破坏性大风天气。     

Chemical analysis of mineral dust grains by SIMS: Application to a cometary mission

Analysis of a dust sample (e.g. collected during a cometary rendezvous mission) by SIMS (Secondary Ion Mass Spectroscopy) can provide information on elemental abundances (? 100 amu), the molecular composition of grain surfaces, and isotopic ratios of selected elements. This can be accomplished with dust covering as little as 10^?4 of the collector surface area. In order to demonstrate these capabilities a special experimental set-up for substrate preparation, dust collection and SIMS analysis of dust under ultrahigh vacuum conditions was developed. The comparison of elemental abundance ratios for different olivines and pyroxenes measured with the special SIMS equipment with that measured by an electron microprobe indicated an accuracy for SIMS of the elemental abundance measurements of ? 30%. By varying the energy threshold of secondary ions to be mass-analysed from 0 to 50 eV it is possible to identify molecular ions in the spectra and to estimate their abundance with respect to elemental ions on the same mass line. The ratios of molecular to elemental ions vary by a factor of 1–25. The concept for a future cometary rendezvous experiment as well as first results of chemical investigation on mineral dust samples obtained are reported.     

Comparison of Different Generation Mechanisms of Free Convection between Two Stations on the Tibetan Plateau

Based on high-quality data from eddy covariance measurements at the Qomolangma Monitoring and Research Station for Atmosphere and Environment(QOMS) and the Southeast Tibet Monitoring and Research Station for Environment(SETS),near-ground free convection conditions(FCCs) and their characteristics are investigated. At QOMS, strong thermal effects accompanied by lower wind speeds can easily trigger the occurrence of FCCs. The change of circulation from prevailing katabatic glacier winds to prevailing upslope winds and the oscillation of upslope winds due to cloud cover are the two main causes of decreases in wind speed at QOMS. The analysis of results from SETS shows that the most important trigger mechanism of FCCs is strong solar heating. Turbulence structural analysis using wavelet transform indicates that lowerfrequency turbulence near the ground emerges from the detected FCCs both at QOMS and at SETS. It should be noted that the heterogeneous underlying surface at SETS creates large-scale turbulence during periods without the occurrence of FCCs. Regarding datasets of all seasons, the distribution of FCCs presents different characteristics during monsoonal and non-monsoonal periods.