Summer temperatures in Europe and land heat fluxes in observation-based data and regional climate model simulations

The occurrence and intensity of heatwaves is expected to increase with climate change. Early warnings of hot summers have therefore a great socio-economical value. Previous studies have shown that hot summers are preceded by a Southern European rainfall deficit during winter, and higher spring temperatures. Changes in the surface energy budget are believed to drive this evolution, in particular changes in the latent and sensible heat fluxes. However these have rarely been investigated due to the lack of long-term reliable observation data. In this study, we analyzed several data-derived gridded products of latent and sensible heat fluxes, based on flux tower observations, together with re-analyses and regional climate model simulations over Europe. We find that warm summers are preceded by an increase in latent heat flux in early spring. During warm summers, an increase in available energy results in an excess of both latent and sensible heat fluxes over most of Europe, but a latent heat flux decrease over the Iberian Peninsula. This indicates that, on average, a summertime soil-moisture limited evapotranspiration regime only prevails in the Iberian Peninsula. In general, the models that we analyzed overestimate latent heat and underestimate sensible heat as compared to the flux tower derived data-product. Most models show considerable drying during warm seasons, leading to the establishment of a soil-moisture limited regime across Europe in summer. This over-estimation by the current generation of models of latent heat and hence of soil moisture deficit over Europe in summer has potential consequences for future summertime climate projections and the projected frequency of heat waves. We also show that a northward propagation of drought during warm summers is found in model results, a phenomenon which is also seen in the flux tower data-product. Our results lead to a better understanding of the role of latent and sensible heat flux in summer heatwaves, and provide a framework for benchmark of modeling studies.     

Developing a likely climate scenario from multiple regional climate model simulations with an optimal weighting factor

This study presents a performance-based comprehensive weighting factor that accounts for the skill of different regional climate models (RCMs), including the effect of the driving lateral boundary condition coming from either atmosphere–ocean global climate models (AOGCMs) or reanalyses. A differential evolution algorithm is employed to identify the optimal relative importance of five performance metrics, and corresponding weighting factors, that include the relative absolute mean error (RAME), annual cycle, spatial pattern, extremes and multi-decadal trend. Based on cumulative density functions built by weighting factors of various RCMs/AOGCMs ensemble simulations, current and future climate projections were then generated to identify the level of uncertainty in the climate scenarios. This study selected the areas of southern Ontario and Québec in Canada as a case study. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Three performance metrics were found essential, having the greater relative importance: the RAME, annual variability and multi-decadal trend. (2) The choice of driving conditions from the AOGCM had impacts on the comprehensive weighting factor, particularly for the winter season. (3) Combining climate projections based on the weighting factors significantly increased the consistency and reduced the spread among models in the future climate changes. These results imply that the weighting factors play a more important role in reducing the effects of outliers on plausible future climate conditions in regions where there is a higher level of variability in RCM/AOGCM simulations. As a result of weighting, substantial increases in the projected warming were found in the southern part of the study area during summer, and the whole region during winter, compared to the simple equal weighting scheme from RCM runs. This study is an initial step toward developing a likelihood procedure for climate scenarios on a regional scale using equal or different probabilities for all models.     

Sensitivity of seasonal precipitation extremes to model configuration of the Canadian Regional Climate Model over eastern Canada using historical simulations

This study analyzes the uncertainty of seasonal (winter and summer) precipitation extremes as simulated by a recent version of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) using 16 simulations (1961–1990), considering four sources of uncertainty from: (a) the domain size, (b) the driving Atmosphere–Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCM), (c) the ensemble member for a given AOGCM and (d) the internal variability of the CRCM. These 16 simulations are driven by 2 AOGCMs (i.e. CGCM3, members 4 and 5, and ECHAM5, members 1 and 2), and one set of re-analysis products (i.e. ERA40), using two domain sizes (AMNO, covering all North America and QC, a smaller domain centred over the Province of Québec). In addition to the mean seasonal precipitation, three seasonal indices are used to characterize different types of variability and extremes of precipitation: the number of wet days, the maximum number of consecutive dry days, and the 95th percentile of daily precipitation. Results show that largest source of uncertainty in summer comes from the AOGCM selection and the choice of domain size, followed by the choice of the member for a given AOGCM. In winter, the choice of the member becomes more important than the choice of the domain size. Simulated variance sensitivity is greater in winter than in summer, highlighting the importance of the large-scale circulation from the boundary conditions. The study confirms a higher uncertainty in the simulated heavy rainfall than the one in the mean precipitation, with some regions along the Great Lakes—St-Lawrence Valley exhibiting a systematic higher uncertainty value.     

Uncertainties in simulating regional climate of Southern Africa: sensitivity to physical parameterizations using WRF

This study aims at quantifying seasonal biases of regional climate model outputs during southern African summer, against a dense in situ measurement network (daily rain-gauge and surface air temperature records, and 12?h UTC radiosondes), and uncertainties associated with some physical parameterizations. Using the non-hydrostatic Advanced Research Weather Forecast (WRF) laterally forced by ERA40 reanalysis, twenty-seven experiments configured with three schemes of cumulus (CU), planetary boundary layer (PBL) and microphysics (MP), are performed at 35?km horizontal resolution during the core of a summer rainy season (December 1993 to February 1994 season) representative of the South African rainfall climatology. WRF simulates accurately seasonal large-scale rainfall patterns, as well as seasonal gradients of South African rainfall and 2-m temperature, and seasonal vertical profiles of the air temperature and humidity. However seasonal biases fluctuate strongly from an experiment to another, denoting considerable uncertainties generated by the physical package. Rainfall amounts are the most sensitive parameter to the tested schemes. Their geography, intensity, and intraseasonal characteristics are predominantly sensitive to CU schemes, and much less to PBL and MP schemes. Some CU-PBL combinations produce additive effects, which can dramatically either reduce or increase biases. Satisfactory configurations are found for South African climate, which would not have been possible without testing numerous physical parameterizations.     

Synchronicity in Climate and Vegetation Transitions Between Europe and North America During the Holocene

Interpreting the postglacial climate history of the European continent using pollen data has proven difficult due in part to human modification of the landscape. Separating climate from human-caused changes in the vegetation requires a strategy for determining times of change across the entire region. We quantified transitions in the vegetation across Europe during the past 12,000 years using a mixture model approach on two datasets: radiocarbon dates from pollen diagrams and zone boundaries from selected reference sites. Major transitions in the vegetation, as recorded in pollen diagrams, appear synchronous across the continent. These transitions were also synchronous with those identified in North America pollen diagrams and major environmental changes recorded in North Atlantic marine records and Greenland ice cores. This synchronicity suggests that the major vegetation transitions in Europe during the Holocene and late glacial were primarily caused by large-scale atmospheric circulation change. These climate changes may have caused some of the cultural, political and migration changes in European societies during the Holocene.     

On the Origin of Near-Surface Streaks in the Neutrally-Stratified Planetary Boundary Layer

The dynamics of near-surface streak formation in the neutrallystratified, rotating planetary boundary layer areinvestigated. The purpose of this note is to compare large-eddysimulation results to theoretical predictions suggesting thatstreaks are associated with non-normal mode optimal perturbations.Streaks are regions near the surface of alternating high and lowspeed fluid organized into nearly linear bands, with horizontalspacing of several hundred metres, oriented up to 30° relativeto the geostrophic wind, that evolve through a continuous cycle ofgeneration, growth, decay and reformation. We find that the earlystages of streak formation and growth are consistent with thelinear theory.     

Evidence of Organized Large Eddies by Ground-Based Doppler Lidar, Sonic Anemometer and Sodar

In an experiment investigating the planetary boundary layer (PBL) wind and temperature fields, and PBL inversion height recorded by various instruments, the results reveal the presence of organized large eddies (OLE) or rolls. The measurements by lidars, anemometers, soundings and sodar gave an overview of the characteristics of the rolls and sources of energy production that maintain them. The experimental results obtained on two consecutive days are compared to model outputs. The agreement is excellent, showing that thermal stratification and wind shear are important factors in the structure and dynamics of OLE. A heterodyne Doppler lidar (HDL) is shown to be a useful tool in the study of OLE.     

Mangrove microbial diversity and the impact of trophic contamination

Mangroves are threatened ecosystems that provide numerous ecosystem services, especially through their wide biodiversity, and their bioremediation capacity is a challenging question in tropical areas. In a mangrove in Mayotte, we studied the potential role of microbial biofilm communities in removing nutrient loads from pre-treated wastewater. Microbial community samples were collected from tree roots, sediments, water, and from a colonization device, and their structure and dynamics were compared in two areas: one exposed to sewage and the other not. The samples from the colonization devices accurately reflected the natural communities in terms of diversity. Communities in the zone exposed to sewage were characterized by more green algae and diatoms, higher bacteria densities, as well as different compositions. In the area exposed to sewage, the higher cell densities associated with specific diversity patterns highlighted adapted communities that may play a significant role in the fate of nutrients.     

Calcul des pluies et débits classés sur le bassin du Bani (Mali): une approche de la vulnérabilité des ouvrages et de la population depuis la sécheresse

Résumé Dans un contexte de changement climatique, les dimensionnements d'ouvrages hydrauliques peuvent avoir un rôle crucial dans une évaluation de la vulnérabilité. Ainsi, on calcule avec les données les plus récentes possibles la pluie journalière maximale annuelle de période de retour donnée (10, 20 et 100 ans) sur 51 stations ainsi que les débits de projet pour six stations sur le bassin versant du Bani au Mali (129 000 km²). Pluies et débits sont calculés avec une méthode utilisant les L-moments et en découpant le bassin en régions climatiques homogènes. Une formule empirique d'évaluation du débit décennal est enfin réévaluée, considérant la baisse importante des débits maximaux depuis 1970. Les valeurs trouvées soulignent l'importance du choix de la période, puisque quelques années peuvent faire varier de façon importante les valeurs classées.     

Influence of high-resolution wind forcing on hydrodynamic modeling of the Gulf of Lions

The impact of the choice of high-resolution atmospheric forcing on ocean summertime circulation in the Gulf of Lions (GoL; Mediterranean Sea) is evaluated using three different datasets: AROME (2.5 km, 1 h), ALADIN (9.5 km, 3 h), and MM5 (9 km, 3 h). A short-term ocean simulation covering a 3-month summer period was performed on a 400-m configuration of the GoL. The main regional features of both wind and oceanic dynamics were well-reproduced by all three atmospheric models. Yet, at smaller scales and for specific hydrodynamic processes, some differences became apparent. Inertial oscillations and mesoscale variability were accentuated when high-resolution forcing was used. Sensitivity tests suggest a predominant role for spatial rather than temporal resolution of wind. The determinant influence of wind stress curl was evidenced, both in the representation of a mesoscale eddy structure and in the generation of a specific upwelling cell in the north-western part of the gulf.