A pollen-based record of late glacial–Holocene climatic variability in the southern lake district, Chile

A pollen record from Puyehue area (40°S; 72°W) in the southern Lake District, Chile, indicates that prior to 13,410 ¹⁴C yr BP (ca. 16,500–15,200 cal yr BP), cold resistant and hygrophilous vegetation, particularly Nothofagus forest and myricaceous vegetation, covered the area. From ca. 15,000 cal yr BP onward, the forest became increasingly dense. Between 10,010 and 7450 ¹⁴C yr BP (ca. 11,000–8000 cal yr BP), the expansion of Nothofagus obliqua and the spread of grasses suggests the climate became warmer and semi-arid. Lowland deciduous forest (Nothofagus obliqua, Aextoxicon punctatum, Laurelia sempervirens) and Valdivian rainforest (Nothofagus dombeyi, Eucryphia cordifolia, Caldcluvia paniculata, Aextoxicon punctatum, Laureliopsis philippiana) were abundant. During the next two thousand years, stable warm climatic conditions prevailed, and the diversity of the vegetation increased. From 5760 to 1040 ¹⁴C yr BP (ca. 6500–900 cal yr BP), the North Patagonian rainforest expanded. The presence of Pilgerodendron/Fitzroya, together with Nothofagus forest, suggests that humid conditions prevailed. During the last millennium, human impact intensified and regional vegetation was disturbed, particularly the lowland deciduous forest and Valdivian rainforest. North-Patagonian and subantartic taxa, such as Podocarpus nubigena, Pilgerodendron/Fitzroya, Nothofagus dombeyi type, Austrocedrus chilensis and Drimys winteri, occupied the low and high-altitude parts of the Cordillera. Five hundred years ago, shrub and grasses expanded in the Nothofagus forest, suggesting that forest became more open under cool–cold, and humid climatic conditions. These conditions prevail to the present day. This is the fourth in a series of eight papers published in this special issue dedicated to the 17,900 year multi-proxy lacustrine record of Lago Puyehue, Chilean Lake District. The papers in this special issue were collected by M. De Batist, N. Fagel, M.-F. Loutre and E. Chapron.     

An assessment of Canadian prairie drought: past, present, and future

Within Canada, the Canadian Prairies are particularly drought-prone mainly due to their location in the lee of the western cordillera and distance from large moisture sources. Although previous studies examined the occurrence of Canadian Prairie droughts during instrumental, pre-instrumental and to a lesser extent, future periods, none have specifically focused on all time three scales. Using two different drought indicators, namely the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), this investigation assesses the variability of summer drought duration and intensity over a core region of the Prairies during (a) the pre-instrumental record extending back several centuries (inferred from tree rings), (b) the instrumental record (1901–2005), and (c) the twenty-first century using statistically downscaled climate variables from several Atmosphere–Ocean Global climate models with multiple emission scenarios. Results reveal that observed twentieth century droughts were relatively mild when compared to pre-settlement on the Prairies, but these periods are likely to return (and even worsen) in the future due to the anticipated warming during the course of the twenty-first century. However, future drought projections are distinctly different between the two indices. All PDSI-related model runs show greater drought frequency and severity mainly due to increasing temperatures. Conversely, the precipitation-based SPI indicates no significant changes to future summer drought frequency although there tends to be a higher persistence of multi-year droughts in central and southern portions of Canadian Prairies. These findings therefore stress the importance of considering anticipated warming trends when assessing future regional-scale drought, especially given the uncertainties and lack of consistency in future precipitation signals among climate models. This study can be considered an initial step toward quantifying and understanding Canadian Prairie drought occurrence and severity over several centuries as determined from paleo, instrumental, and climate model data sources.     

Evidence of Organized Large Eddies by Ground-Based Doppler Lidar, Sonic Anemometer and Sodar

In an experiment investigating the planetary boundary layer (PBL) wind and temperature fields, and PBL inversion height recorded by various instruments, the results reveal the presence of organized large eddies (OLE) or rolls. The measurements by lidars, anemometers, soundings and sodar gave an overview of the characteristics of the rolls and sources of energy production that maintain them. The experimental results obtained on two consecutive days are compared to model outputs. The agreement is excellent, showing that thermal stratification and wind shear are important factors in the structure and dynamics of OLE. A heterodyne Doppler lidar (HDL) is shown to be a useful tool in the study of OLE.     

Coupled modeling of thermics and hydrogeology with the Cast3M code: application to the Rainbow hydrothermal field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 36°14′N)

We present a new numerical tool developed in the Cast3M software framework to model hydrothermal circulation. Thermodynamic properties of one-phase pure water are calculated from the International Association for the Properties of Water and Steam formulation. This new numerical tool is validated on several test cases of convection in closed-top and open-top boxes. Simulations of hydrothermal circulation in a homogeneous-permeability porous medium also give results in good agreement with already published simulations. This new numerical tool is used to construct a geometric and physical conceptual model of the Rainbow vent site at 36°14^′N on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Several configurations are discussed, showing that high temperatures and high mass fluxes measured at the Rainbow site cannot be modeled with hydrothermal circulation in a homogeneous-permeability porous medium. These high values require the presence of a fault or a preferential pathway right below the venting site. We propose and discuss a two-dimensional single-pass model that allows us to simulate both high temperatures and high mass fluxes. This modeling of the hydrothermal circulation at the Rainbow site constitutes the first but necessary step to understand the origin of high concentrations of hydrogen issued from this ultramafic-hosted vent field.     

Global occurrence models for human and economic losses due to earthquakes (1967–2018) considering exposed GDP and population

Natural Hazards - In moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions, estimating the socio-economic consequences of an earthquake on the regional scale is a costly and difficult task. This study analyses...     

Pb isotopic constraints on the formation of the Dikulushi Cu–Pb–Zn–Ag mineralisation, Kundelungu Plateau (Democratic Republic of Congo)

Base metal–Ag mineralisation at Dikulushi and in other deposits on the Kundelungu Plateau (Democratic Republic of Congo) developed during two episodes. Subeconomic Cu–Pb–Zn–Fe polysulphide ores were generated during the Lufilian Orogeny (c. 520 Ma ago) in a set of E–W- and NE–SW-oriented faults. Their lead has a relatively unradiogenic and internally inhomogeneous isotopic composition (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.07–18.49), most likely generated by mixing of Pb from isotopically heterogeneous clastic sources. These sulphides were remobilised and enriched after the Lufilian Orogeny, along reactivated and newly formed NE–SW-oriented faults into a chalcocite-dominated Cu–Ag mineralisation of high economic interest. The chalcocite samples contain only trace amounts of lead and show mostly radiogenic Pb isotope signatures that fall along a linear trend in the ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb vs. ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb diagram (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.66–23.65; ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.72–16.02). These anomalous characteristics reflect a two-stage evolution involving admixture of both radiogenic lead and uranium during a young fluid event possibly c. 100 Ma ago. The Pb isotope systematics of local host rocks to mineralisation also indicate some comparable young disturbance of their U–Th–Pb systems, related to the same event. They could have provided Pb with sufficiently radiogenic compositions that was added to less radiogenic Pb remobilised from precursor Cu–Pb–Zn–Fe polysulphides, whereas the U most likely originated from external sources. Local metal sources are also suggested by the ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb–²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb systematics of combined ore and rock lead, which indicate a pronounced and diversified lithological control of the immediate host rocks on the chalcocite-dominated Cu–Ag ores. The Pb isotope systematics of polysulphide mineralisation on the Kundelungu Plateau clearly record a diachronous evolution.     

Modeling of damage-related earthquake losses in a moderate seismic-prone country and cost–benefit evaluation of retrofit investments: application to France

We performed large-scale earthquake economic loss estimations for France and cost–benefit analyses for several French cities by developing a semiempirical, intensity-based approach. The proposed methodology is inexpensive and easily applicable in case of a paucity of detailed information regarding the specific regional seismic hazard and the structural characteristics of the building stock, which is of particular importance in moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions. The exposure model is derived from census datasets, and the seismic vulnerability distribution of buildings is calculated using data mining techniques. Several hypothetical, large-scale retrofit scenarios are proposed, with increasing levels of investment. These cities, in their respective reinforced states, are then subjected to a series of hazard scenarios. Seismic hazard data for different return periods are calculated from regulatory accelerations from French seismic zoning. Loss estimations for the original (non-reinforced) configuration show high levels of expected building repair and replacement costs for all time spans. Finally, the benefits in terms of damage avoidance are compared with the costs of each retrofit measure. Relatively limited strengthening investments reduce the probability of building collapse, which is the main cause of human casualties. However, the results of this study suggest that retrofitting is, on average, only cost-effective in the parts of France with the highest seismicity and over the longest time horizons.     

Modelling a geo-composite cell using discrete analysis

Reinforced soil structures can be used to protect infrastructures against rockfalls. An innovative way to implement such protection is to construct the front face using a cellular assembly. This paper focuses on the cellular scale, with the cell a complex heterogeneous material, composed of a wire netting box filled with rocky particles. The behaviour of a single cell was modelled using the discrete element method, thus accounting for the interaction between the rocky particles and the interaction between the box and the rocky particles. A constitutive model was developed and calibrated along confined compression loading paths, then preliminary elements of validation were obtained from the simulation of unconfined compression tests.     

The fractional power law of wind wave growth in deep water for short fetch

Combining the 3/2 power law proposed by Toba with the significant wave energy balance equation for wind waves, wave growth in deep water for short fetch is investigated. It is found that the variations of wave height and period with fetch have the form of power function with fractional exponents 3/8 and 1/4 respectively. Using these exponents in the power functions and through data fitting, the concise wind wave growth relations for short fetch are obtained.