Mapping the mean monthly precipitation of a small island using kriging with external drifts

This study focuses on the spatial distribution of mean annual and monthly precipitation in a small island (1128 km²) named Martinique, located in the Lesser Antilles. Only 35 meteorological stations are available on the territory, which has a complex topography. With a digital elevation model (DEM), 17 covariates that are likely to explain precipitation were built. Several interpolation methods, such as regression-kriging (????????, ????????, and ????????) and external drift kriging (??????) were tested using a cross-validation procedure. For the regression methods, predictors were chosen by established techniques whereas a new approach is proposed to select external drifts in a kriging which is based on a stepwise model selection by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The prediction accuracy was assessed at validation sites with three different skill scores. Results show that using methods with no predictors such as inverse distance weighting (??????) or universal kriging (????) is inappropriate in such a territory. ?????? appears to outperform regression methods for any criteria, and selecting predictors by our approach improves the prediction of mean annual precipitation compared to kriging with only elevation as drift. Finally, the predicting performance was also studied by varying the size of the training set leading to less conclusive results for ?????? and its performance. Nevertheless, the proposed method seems to be a good way to improve the mapping of climatic variables in a small island.     

Climate Warming Mitigation from Nationally Determined Contributions

Individual countries are requested to submit nationally determined contributions(NDCs) to alleviate global warming in the Paris Agreement. However, the global climate effects and regional contributions are not explicitly considered in the countries’ decision-making process. In this study, we evaluate the global temperature slowdown of the NDC scenario(?T =0.6°C) and attribute the global temperature slowdown to certain regions of the world with a compact earth system model.Considering reductions ...     

Adaptation of prestack migration to multi-offset ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data

In adapting the prestack migration technique used in seismic imaging to the inversion of ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) from time‐ to depth‐sections, we show that the theoretical integral formulation of the inversion can be applied to electromagnetic problems, albeit with three assumptions. The first two assumptions concern the electromagnetic characteristics of the medium, primarily that the medium must be perfectly resistive and non‐dispersive, and the third concerns the antennae radiation pattern, which is taken to be 2D. The application of this adaptation of the inversion method is confirmed by migrating actual GPR measurements acquired on the test site of the Laboratoire Central des Ponts et Chaussées. The results show good agreement with the geometry of the structures in the medium and confirm that the possible departure from the assumption of a purely resistive medium has no visible effect on the information concerning the geometry of scattering and reflecting structures. The field experiments also show that prestack migration processing is sufficiently robust with regard to the assumption of a non‐dispersive medium. The assumption of a 2D antennae radiation pattern, however, produces artefacts that could be significant for laterally heterogeneous media. Nevertheless, where the medium is not highly laterally heterogeneous, the migration gives a clear image of the scattering potential due to the geometry of structural contrasts in the medium; the scatterers are well focused from diffraction hyperbolae and well localized. Spatial geometry has limited dimensional accuracy and positions are located with a maximum error equal to the minimum wavelength of the signal bandpass. Objects smaller than one wavelength can nevertheless be detected and well focused if their dielectric contrasts are sufficiently high, as in the case of iron or water in gneiss gravels. Furthermore, the suitability of multi‐offset protocols to estimate the electromagnetic propagating velocity and to decrease the non‐coherent noise level of measurements is confirmed. Our velocity estimation is based on the semblance calculation of multi‐offset migrated images, and we confirmed the relevance of this quantification method using numerical data. The signal‐to‐noise ratio is improved by summing multi‐offset results after the addition of random noise on measurements. Thus the adaptation of prestack migration to multi‐offset radar measurements significantly improves the resolution of the scattering potential of the medium. Limitations associated with the methods used here suggest that 3D algorithms should be applied to strongly laterally heterogeneous media and further studies concerning the waveform inversion are necessary to obtain information about the electric nature of the medium.     

Aerosol polarized phase function and single-scattering albedo retrieved from ground-based measurements

Aerosol optical parameters, polarized phase function and single-scattering albdeo, have been retrieved from ground-based sun photometer measurements in Beijing 2003. The measured aerosol optical thickness varies from 0.12 to 0.77 with an average value of 0.39. The measured Ångström coefficient ranges from 0.75 to 1.47 with an average value of 1.21. The retrieved single-scattering albedo at 870 nm is within the 0.76–0.94 range and the average value is 0.85, suggests there are considerable aerosol absorptions in Beijing. The maximum value of retrieved polarized phase function at 870 nm ranges from 0.068 to 0.225 with an average value of 0.16, and it illustrates good correlations with the Ångström coefficient, i.e. the relative size of aerosol particles. Analyses of measurements and theoretical calculations show the polarized phase function is sensitive to aerosol size distribution and complex refractive index, especially the imaginary part of the refractive index which denotes aerosol light absorbing effects. These results suggest that the polarized phase function is an effective and unique aerosol optical parameter and is able to improve the retrieval of aerosol physical properties.     

Impact of Terrain Heterogeneity on Coherent Structure Properties: Numerical Approach

A three-dimensional large-eddy simulation (LES) model, which includes the effects of plant–atmosphere interactions, is used to study the effects of surface inhomogeneities on near-surface coherent structures over an open field and behind a forest canopy. These simulated conditions are representative of two wind sectors of the Site Instrumental de Recherche par Télédétection Atmosphérique (SIRTA) experimental site at the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Palaiseau, France. Coherent structure properties deduced from wavelet transforms of the simulated near-surface vertical velocity time series are not modified by upstream terrain heterogeneities, in agreement with site measurements. This feature is related to the nature of structures detected from the vertical velocity time series. The turbulence close to the surface seems composed of both local coherent structures and large coherent structures reflecting outer-layer properties, which depend on the overall surface heterogeneity or upstream heterogeneity. It is argued that the streamwise velocity is representative of these large outer-layer structures that impinge onto the ground through a top-down mechanism as identified through the space–time correlation of the wind velocity components. In contrast, the vertical velocity is more representative of small structures resulting from the impingement of the large outer-layer structures. These small structures represent locally-generated, active turbulence, which adjusts rapidly to local surface conditions, and consequently they are only weakly dependent on upstream heterogeneities.     

A 3-D model for the Antarctic ice sheet: a sensitivity study on the glacial-interglacial contrast

On the longer climatic time scales, changes in the elevation and extent of the Antarctic ice sheet have an important role in modulating global atmospheric and oceanographic processes, and contribute significantly to world-wide sea levels. In this paper, a 3-D time-dependent thermomechanical model for the entire ice sheet is presented, that is subsequently used to examine the effects of glacial-interglacial shifts in environmental boundary conditions on its geometry. The model takes into account a coupled ice shelf, grounding-line dynamics, basal sliding and isostatic bed adjustment and considers the fully coupled velocity and temperature fields. Ice flow is calculated on a fine mesh (40 km horizontal grid size and 10 layers in the vertical) for grounded and floating ice and a stress transition zone in between at the grounding line, where all stress components contribute in the effective stress in the flow law. There is free interaction between ice sheet and ice shelf, so that the entire geometry is internally generated. A simulation of the present ice sheet reveals that the model is able to yield realistic results. A series of sensitivity experiments are then performed, in which lower temperatures, reduced accumulation rates and lower global sea level stands are imposed, either singly or in combination. By comparing results of pairs of experiments, the effects of each of these environmental changes can be determined. In agreement with glacial-geological evidence, we found that the most pronounced changes show up in the West Antarctic ice sheet configuration. They appear to be essentially controlled by variations in eustatic sea level, whereas typical glacial-interglacial changes in temperature and ice deposition rates tend to balance one another. These findings support the hypothesis that the Antarctic ice sheet basically follows glacial episodes in the northern hemisphere by means of sea-level teleconnections. Grounding occurs more readily in the Weddell sea than in the Ross sea and long time scales appear to be involved: it may take up to 30–40000 years for these continental shelf areas to become completely grounded after an initial stepwise perturbation in boundary conditions. According to these reconstructions, a steady state Antarctic ice sheet may contribute some 16 m to global sea level lowering at maximum glaciation.     

Pb,Hf and Nd isotope compositions of the two Réunion volcanoes (Indian Ocean): A tale of two small-scale mantle “blobs”?

Pb, Hf, Nd and Sr isotopes of basaltic lavas from the two Réunion Island volcanoes are reported in order to examine the origin of the sources feeding these volcanoes and to detect possible changes through time. Samples, chosen to cover the whole lifetime of the two volcanoes (from 2 Ma to present), yield a chemically restricted (compared to OIB lavas) but complex distribution. Réunion plume isotopic characteristics have been defined on the basis of the composition of uncontaminated shield-building lavas from the Piton de la Fournaise volcano. The average ?_Nd, ?_Hf, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb isotope ratios calculated for this component are + 4.4, + 9.1, 0.70411, 18.97, 15.59 and 39.03, respectively. In Pb–Pb isotope space, each volcano defines a distinct linear trend but slight variations are also detected within the various volcanic sequences. The Piton des Neiges volcano yields a distinct and significantly more scattered isotopic distribution than Piton de la Fournaise for both Pb, Hf and Nd isotope tracers. A principal component analysis of the Pb isotope data from Piton de la Fournaise reveals a major contribution of the C and EM-1 components (with a clear Dupal flavor) as main components for the modern Réunion plume. The same components have been identified for Piton des Neiges but with a stronger participation of a depleted mantle component and a weaker EM-1 contribution. The compositional change of the lavas erupted by the Piton des Neiges and Piton de la Fournaise volcanoes is attributed to the impingement of two small-scale blobs of plume material at the base of the Réunion lithosphere. Compared to other hot-spots worldwide, in particular Hawaii and Kerguelen, magmas beneath Réunion are generated from a considerably more homogeneous, compositionally more primitive plume higher in ²⁰⁶Pb. Although shallow-level contamination processes have been locally detected they did not alter significantly the composition of the plume magmas. This is tentatively attributed to mantle dynamics producing small, high-velocity blobs that ascend rapidly through the lithosphere, and to the lack of a well-developed magma chamber at depth in the lithosphere.