The depletion of oil

The trend of previous estimates of the world's ultimate recovery of oil suggests a figure of 1650 BBO, of which 1438 BBO have been discovered and 978 BBO remain to be produced. Some large reported reserve figures are questioned. Importance is attached to the mid-point of depletion when rising production tends to give way to decline. The share of the world's supply coming from six Middle East countries is set to continue to rise from its 1986 low of 16% to as much as 50% by 2010, with the likely consequence of higher oil prices and serious political implications. The world is rapidly approaching a turning point when it has to face the consequences of an irreversible decline in oil production.     

Elasto-Plastic Analysis of Tubular Joints of Offshore Platforms by Finite Element Method

The plastic node method is reformulated by the variational principle and is applied to elasto-plastic finite element analysis of tubular joints, eventually including the effect of internal and external gussets, stiffener rings, etc., if necessary. Four different joints are studied here in detail for the elasto-plastic behavior, the strain at the hot spot, the strain concentration factor around the intersection line, and the propagation of the plastic region with loading up to collapse in order to determine the ultimate strength, safety factor, and development of the plastic field. The present results are in good agreement with the experimental results.     

Paleocene to lower Eocene clay sedimentation in the Bay of Biscay

A study of the mineralogy of red clay sequences overlying basalt in the Bay of Biscay revealed two successive units: unit one (lower unit) indicates that clay minerals are the result of subaerial weathering of acid or basic continental rocks, occurring in the Galice province (northwest Spain); and unit two (upper unit) consists of fine-grained particles which suggest distinct volcanic activity. Clay materials from the first unit (Paleocene) are deposited in shallow environments, whereas the second unit materials (lower Eocene) Occur in deeper environments followed by neoformation of clay Minerals and concentration of chemical elements (cobalt, nickel, lead, zinc, and barium).     

A statistical analysis of non-linear random waves

A statistical analysis of unidirectional non-linear random waves is presented which is based on second-order random wave theory. The analysis technique is similar to a method which is available for the statistical analysis of a two-term Volterra series. It is shown that the statistical problem can be reduced to that of finding the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of two real symmetric matrices, from which the cumulants, the characteristic function, and the probability density function of the surface elevation can be found. Various numerical examples are considered, and the possibility of extending the technique to deal with spreading seas is discussed.     

Control over natural resources in ecological economical systems

We consider the problem of stable development of natural economical complexes from the viewpoint of basic balances in an ecological economical system. We construct a basic dynamical model of the complex capable of predicting various scenarios of the industrial development, consumption of natural resources, and pollution of the environment and propose a mechanism of control over the process of development by introducing rent payments for the use of natural resources and ecological fines for the pollution of the environment. The efficiency of the applied model is demonstrated by analysing the process of control over the concentration of biological resources in marine media as an example. We describe the results of numerical experiments performed to show the possibility of creation of the information technology of control over marine bioresources. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev