Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

Tropospheric Ozone in a Global-Scale Three-Dimensional Lagrangian Model and Its Response to NOX Emission Controls

A three-dimensional Lagrangian tropospheric chemistry modelis used toinvestigate the impact of human activities on the tropospheric distributionofozone and hydroxyl radicals. The model describes the behaviour of 50 speciesincluding methane, carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen, sulphur dioxide andnineorganic compounds emitted from human activities and a range of other sources.Thechemical mechanism involves about 100 chemical reactions of which 16 arephotochemical reactions whose diurnal dependence is treated in full. The modelutilises a five minute chemistry time step and a three hour advection timestepfor the 50,000 air parcels. Meteorological data for the winds, temperatures,clouds and so on are taken from the UK Meteorological Office global model for1994 onwards. The impacts of a 50% reduction in European NO_Xemissions onglobal ozone concentrations are assessed. Surface ozoneconcentrations decrease in summertime and rise in wintertime, but to differentextents.     

A Preliminary Analysis of Disturbance Tracksover the Mediterranean Basin

Summary  The Mediterranean basin experiences considerable cyclone activity mostly during fall, winter and spring and diminished activity during summer. In this study we present results of synoptic disturbance track analysis for two contrasting winter months and two, near average, summer months over the eastern Mediterranean. The surface and 500 hPa disturbance tracks were subjectively analyzed from two points of view. First, looking at tracks of conventionally defined cyclone centers (eddies) based on actual pressure and height distribution and second, looking at tracks of transient cyclonic disturbances (TRADs), defined as centers of negative deviations from the time mean. The second type of analysis demonstrated a considerable increase in the number of detectable tracks. Over the Mediterranean and vicinity the ratio between the number of surface TRAD tracks to cyclone tracks is, about 2, whereas at 500 hPa the ratio is much higher, about 5. However, the average life span of transient disturbances was only slightly longer than that of conventional cyclones (mainly at 500 hPa). At the surface and at 500 hPa about 50% of the cyclone tracks coincided to a certain extent with TRAD tracks. In summer, when conventional analysis over the eastern Mediterranean yields mostly quasi‐stationary low pressure centers associated with the Persian Gulf Trough, we detected clear signs of transient disturbances. Some interpretations of the differences between cyclones and TRADs in terms of weather in the eastern Mediterranean are also made. Received January 19, 1999Revised June 23, 1999     

A NEW APPROACH TO THE INVERSION OF SEISMIC DATA*

A new inversion method for seismic reflection data is based on impedance concepts and uses transformations to reduce the essentially non-linear problem to a linear eigenvalue formulation without approximation. A set of reflection data has been inverted using this method. The characteristic impedances of the layers so determined are compared with log data from a reference borehole.     

Paleostress analysis of the brittle deformations on the northwestern margin of the Red Sea and the southern Gulf of Suez,Egypt

Shear fractures, dip-slip, strike-slip faults and their striations are preserved in the pre- and syn-rift rocks at Gulf of Suez and northwestern margin of the Red Sea. Fault-kinematic analysis and paleostress reconstruction show that the fault systems that control the Red Sea–Gulf of Suez rift structures develop in at least four tectonic stages. The first one is compressional stage and oriented NE–SW. The average stress regime index R' is 1.55 and S_Hmax oriented NE–SW. This stage is responsible for reactivation of the N–S to NNE, ENE and WNW Precambrian fractures. The second stage is characterized by WNW dextral and NNW to N–S sinistral faults, and is related to NW–SE compressional stress regime. The third stage is belonging to NE–SW extensional regime. The S_Hmax is oriented NW–SE parallel to the normal faults, and the average stress regime R' is equal 0.26. The NNE–SSW fourth tectonic stage is considered a counterclockwise rotation of the third stage in Pliocene-Pleistocene age. The first and second stages consider the initial stages of rifting, while the third and fourth represent the main stage of rifting.     

Tidal effects in geomagnetic variations

Doklady Earth Sciences - This paper reports the results of processing and analysis of geomagnetic variations, estimates of their spectra, and the first identified waves of lunar–solar tides...     

Magnesium-iron compositional variance in hornblende pyroxene granulites

Hornblende-orthopyroxene-calcic pyroxene-plagioclase (andesine-labradorite) — magnetite-ilmenite±quartz assemblages are evidently the most common granulite facies representatives of basic rocks throughout the world, and they must represent a variance of more than one. Ramberg (1948) invoked an additional degree of freedom arising out of unequal fractionation of Mg and Fe in the ferromagnesian silicates in such rocks. This is examined in detail on the basis of chemical data on twentytwo hornblende-orthopyroxenecalcic pyroxene triads, half of them from the type charnockite area near Madras.Theoretical consideration of a magnesium-iron distribution model shows that in quartz-bearing hornblende pyroxene granulites, the Mg/Mg+Fe ratios of hornblende, orthopyroxene and calcic pyroxene are uniquely determined by temperature at constant pressure. But these assemblages contain quartz rarely and Mg-Fe distribution among the three can be best described by three exchange equilibria where, at constant temperature, there is a fixed relation between the Mg/Mg+Fe ratios of the minerals. Among these, the exchange equilibria between hornblende-orthopyroxene and hornblende-calcic pyroxene appear to be interdependent; however, they are known to be significantly modified by varying tetrahedral aluminium contents of hornblendes. Comparison of molecular Mg/(Mg+Fe) ratios of hornblendes and parent rocks strongly points to an absence of Mg-Fe compositional variance in the total system, a petrologically important corollary being that the hornblendes in these rocks are highly unlikely to be secondary after pyroxenes. The general variance of the assemblages is also discussed.     

Hα emission objects in Circinus

We present a new survey for Hα emission objects in the Circinus cloud complex and introduce an efficient photometric method for detecting Hα emission via observations in a narrow‐band filter. The observed flux is compared to a blackbody fit of the continuum. Our search strategy reveals 20 stars with strong Hα emission (EW > 10 Å), eight of them being new detections. All Hα stars display infrared excess corroborating their youth. On the other hand, the region contains a number of infrared excess objects that do not show Hα emission. Our results support the picture that accretion – as witnessed by Hα emission – is a highly variable phenomenon. Therefore, Hα surveys can only trace the temporarily active objects. In contrast, infrared excess is a more robust tracer that reveals most of the population of young stellar objects in a star forming region. Our analysis of the general stellar content of the region yields a reliable distance of 450 pc for the Circinus cloud. Moreover, we find a ratio of total‐to‐selective extinction of R^V = 2.8 suggesting that smaller‐than‐normal dust grains may be present. (© 2013 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The truth about Ground Truth

This paper presents a critical appreciation of the book edited by Pickles called Ground Truth . It offers a response in defence of GIS, written from the perspective of a quantitative geographer's unavoidably academic view of the strengths and weaknesses of GIS and Ground Truth. In essence, there is a growing need for a multi-partisan approach to improving rather than rubbishing a geoinformation technology that is an expanding global industry of considerable relevance both to the present and to the future.