An Application of the Multi-Physics Ensemble Kalman Filter to Typhoon Forecast

This study examines the roles of the multi-physics approach in accounting for model errors for typhoon forecasts with the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). Experiments with forecasts of Typhoon Conson (2010) using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model show that use of the WRF’s multiple physical parameterization schemes to represent the model uncertainties can help the LETKF provide better forecasts of Typhoon Conson in terms of the forecast errors, the ensemble spread, the root mean square errors, the cross-correlation between mass and wind field as well as the coherent structure of the ensemble spread along the storm center. Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model show that the optimum number of the multi-physics ensemble is roughly equal to the number of combinations of different physics schemes assigned in the multi-physics ensemble. Additional idealized experiments with the Lorenz 40-variable model to isolate the dual roles of the multi-physics ensemble in correcting model errors and expanding the local ensemble space show that the multi-physics approach appears to be more essential in augmenting the local rank representation of the LETKF algorithm rather than directly accounting for model errors during the early cycles. The results in this study suggest that the multi-physics approach is a good option for short-range forecast applications with full physics models in which the spinup of the ensemble Kalman filter may take too long for the ensemble spread to capture efficiently model errors and cross-correlations among model variables.     

东南亚断裂构造的演化

本研究项目是采用诸如地质学解释、影像判读和地球物理探测等多种方法相结合进行的。在所得结果的基础上参考了越南国内外同行的一些资料编制了东南亚、越南及邻区的断裂构造图．其比例尺分别为1：4百万和1：1百万。分析所得结果显示出东南亚断裂构造演化的下列情况：1)在现今地质结构方面东南亚是欧亚岩石圈板块的东南部分．由一条消减带围绕．这条消减带的伸展从Myanmer开始,通过Nicobar,Java Timor直到东菲律宾。东南亚被Song Hong(即红河)断裂,Three Pagodas断裂和Hainam-Natuna断裂等2级断裂系统分成3个微板块。2)在早新生代．东南亚是分为5个微板块的。它们的分界断裂中有2个一级断裂(中央东海扩张带和Lupar-Kuching消减带)和3个二级断裂(即上述3个)。3)上述绝大多数二和三级断裂从晚新生代起活化且继承了从早新生代即已发生和发展了的二、三级断裂,但在某些条件下．运动方向却完全变成了相反,尤其是走滑运动的方向。我们的研究结果表明：在这一地区内,盆地、隆起、岩浆侵入、褶皱和局部断裂等构造的形成都取决于这些沿着一、二级走滑断裂的微板块运动。     

Spatiotemporal variations of extreme sea levels around the South China Sea: assessing the influence of tropical cyclones,monsoons and major climate modes

With sea levels projected to rise as a result of climate change, it is imperative to understand not only long-term average trends, but also the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme sea level. In this study, we use a comprehensive set of 30 tide gauges spanning 1954–2014 to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of extreme sea level around the low-lying and densely populated margins of the South China Sea. We also explore the long-term evolution of extreme sea level by applying a dynamic linear model for the generalized extreme value distribution (DLM-GEV), which can be used for assessing the changes in extreme sea levels with time. Our results show that the sea-level maxima distributions range from ~?90 to 400 cm and occur seasonally across the South China Sea. In general, the sea-level maxima at northern tide gauges are approximately 25–30% higher than those in the south and are highest in summer as tropical cyclone-induced surges dominate the northern signal. In contrast, the smaller signal in the south is dominated by monsoonal winds in the winter. The trends of extreme high percentiles of sea-level values are broadly consistent with the changes in mean sea level. The DLM-GEV model characterizes the interannual variability of extreme sea level, and hence, the 50-year return levels at most tide gauges. We find small but statistically significant correlations between extreme sea level and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Our study provides new insight into the dynamic relationships between extreme sea level, mean sea level and the tidal cycle in the South China Sea, which can contribute to preparing for coastal risks at multi-decadal timescales.

     

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using Bagging Ensemble Based Alternating Decision Trees,Logistic Regression and J48 Decision Trees Methods: A Comparative Study

In this study, we have evaluated and compared prediction capability of Bagging Ensemble Based Alternating Decision Trees (BADT), Logistic Regression (LR), and J48 Decision Trees (J48DT) for landslide susceptibility mapping at part of the Uttarakhand State (India). The BADT method has been proposed in the present study which is a novel hybrid machine learning ensemble approach of bagging ensemble and alternating decision trees. The J48DT is a relative new machine learning technique which has been applied only in few landslide studies, and the LR is known as a popular landslide susceptibility model. For the model studies, a spatial database of 930 historical landslide events and 15 landslide affecting factors have been collected and analyzed. This database has been used to build and validate the landslide models namely BADT, LR and J48DT Predictive capability of these models has been validated and compared using statistical analyzing methods and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Results show that these three landslide models (BADT, LR and J48DT) performed well with the training dataset. However, using the validation dataset the BADT model has the highest prediction capability, followed by the LR model, and the J48DT model, respectively. This indicates that the BADT is a promising method which can be used for landslide susceptibility assessment also for other landslide prone areas.     

(137)Cs baseline levels in the Mediterranean and Black Sea: a cross-basin survey of the CIESM Mediterranean Mussel Watch programme

The common mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis was selected as unique biomonitor species to implement a regional monitoring programme, the CIESM Mediterranean Mussel Watch (MMW), in the Mediterranean and Black Seas. As of today, and upon standardization of the methodological approach, the MMW Network has been able to quantify (137)Cs levels in mussels from 60 coastal stations and to produce the first distribution map of this artificial radionuclide at the scale of the entire Mediterranean and Black Seas. While measured (137)Cs levels were found to be very low (usually < 1 Bq kg(-1) wet wt) (137)Cs activity concentrations in the Black Sea and North Aegean Sea were up to two orders of magnitude higher than those in the western Mediterranean Basin. Such effects, far from representing a threat to human populations or the environment, reflect a persistent signature of the Chernobyl fallout in this area.     

Layered tektites of southeast Asia: Field studies in central Laos and Vietnam

Abstract— We have recovered 18 kg of layered tektites from 10 tektite-bearing localities in Laos and central Vietnam, including 5 localities around the town of Muong Nong (Laos). Several of these deposits originally contained several hundred kilograms of layered tektite fragments, and one fragmented mass may have been as large as 1000 kg. This is the largest single deposit of tektites yet reported. In this region, layered tektite fragments are found in isolated clusters usually associated with a pebbly laterite horizon that is 0–1 m below the surface. Near Khe Sanh, Vietnam, we estimate the abundance of layered tektite fragments to be ～100 g/m². This is greater than five times the abundance estimated for northeast Thailand (Fiske et al., 1996). In a region that extends from northeast Thailand, through central Laos, and into central Vietnam, we found only layered tektites, which confirmed the existence of a large (>50 000 km²) subfield of the Australasian strewn field with only layered tektites. The east-west extent of the “layered-only” subfield is well constrained, but little field data exist to constrain its north-south extent.     

Flood susceptibility modelling using advanced ensemble machine learning models

Floods are one of nature's most destructive disasters because of the immense damage to land, buildings, and human fatalities.It is difficult to forecast the areas that are vulnerable to flash flooding due to the dynamic and complex nature of the flash floods.Therefore, earlier identification of flash flood susceptible sites can be performed using advanced machine learning models for managing flood disasters.In this study, we applied and assessed two new hybrid ensemble models, namely Dagging and Random Subspace(RS) coupled with Artificial Neural Network(ANN), Random Forest(RF), and Support Vector Machine(SVM) which are the other three state-of-the-art machine learning models for modelling flood susceptibility maps at the Teesta River basin, the northern region of Bangladesh.The application of these models includes twelve flood influencing factors with 413 current and former flooding points, which were transferred in a GIS environment.The information gain ratio, the multicollinearity diagnostics tests were employed to determine the association between the occurrences and flood influential factors.For the validation and the comparison of these models, for the ability to predict the statistical appraisal measures such as Freidman, Wilcoxon signed-rank, and t-paired tests and Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve(ROC) were employed.The value of the Area Under the Curve(AUC) of ROC was above 0.80 for all models.For flood susceptibility modelling, the Dagging model performs superior, followed by RF,the ANN, the SVM, and the RS, then the several benchmark models.The approach and solution-oriented outcomes outlined in this paper will assist state and local authorities as well as policy makers in reducing flood-related threats and will also assist in the implementation of effective mitigation strategies to mitigate future damage.     

越南西北部莱州地区新生代煌斑岩地球化学特征及其成因

越南西北部菜州地区出露的新生代煌斑岩岩脉对理解特提斯造山带东段的深部岩石圈特征和演化具有重要的地质意义.本文报道莱州地区煌斑岩的元素地球化学和Sr-Nd-Pb同位素组成特征,探讨其岩石成因.该地区煌斑岩属于钙碱性,钾质-超钾质煌斑岩特征.地球化学特征对比表明,菜州地区煌斑岩与哀牢山断裂带碱性岩具有相似的地球化学特征,但与海南和越南南部火山岩存在明显差异.分析结果表明,煌斑岩具有高的87Sr/86Sr比值、低143Nd/144Nd比值和高放射性成因Pb同位素组成特征.岩石的微量元素组成特征指示,形成煌斑岩的地幔源区可能经历过流体交代作用或沉积物组分的加入.低208Pb*/206Pb*比值暗示地幔源区富集事件是近期发生的,可能与晚古生代-早中生代印支地块向扬子地块俯冲事件有关.     

Sediment transport and beach morphodynamics induced by free long waves,bound long waves and wave groups

New laboratory data are presented on the influence of free long waves, bound long waves and wave groups on sediment transport in the surf and swash zones. As a result of the very significant difficulties in isolating and identifying the morphodynamic influences of long waves and wave groups in field conditions, a laboratory study was designed specifically to enable measurements of sediment transport that resolve these influences. The evolution of model sand beaches, each with the same initial plane slope, was measured for a range of wave conditions, firstly using monochromatic short waves. Subsequently, the monochromatic conditions were perturbed with free long waves and then substituted with bichromatic wave groups with the same mean energy flux. The beach profile changes and net cross-shore transport rates were extracted and compared for the different wave conditions, with and without long waves and wave groups. The experiments include a range of wave conditions, e.g. high-energy, moderate-energy, low-energy waves, which induce both spilling and plunging breakers and different turbulent intensities, and the beaches evolve to form classical accretive, erosive, and intermediate beach states. The data clearly demonstrate that free long waves influence surf zone morphodynamics and promote increased onshore sediment transport during accretive conditions and decreased offshore transport under erosive conditions. In contrast, wave groups, which can generate both forced and free long waves, generally reduce onshore transport during accretive conditions and increase offshore transport under erosive conditions. The influence of the free long waves and wave groups is consistent with the concept of the relative fall velocity, H/w_sT, as a dominant parameter controlling net beach erosion or accretion. Free long waves tend to reduce H/w_sT, promoting accretion, while wave groups tend to increase the effective H/w_sT, promoting erosion.