Modelling the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on extreme erosion events in forested landscapes

Existing models of post-fire erosion have focused primarily on using empirical or deterministic approaches to predict the magnitude of response from catchments given some initial rainfall and burn conditions. These models are concerned with reducing uncertainties associated with hydro-geomorphic transfer processes and typically operate at event timescales. There have been relatively few attempts at modelling the stochastic interplay between fire disturbance and rainfall as factors which determine the frequency and severity with which catchments are conditioned (or primed) for a hazardous event. This process is sensitive to non-stationarity in fire and rainfall regime parameters and therefore suitable for evaluating the effects of climate change and strategic fire management on hydro-geomorphic hazards from burnt areas. In this paper we ask the question, “What is the first-order effect of climate change on the interaction between fire disturbance and storms?” The aim is to isolate the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on the frequency of extreme erosion events. Fire disturbance and storms are represented as independent stochastic processes with properties of spatial extent, temporal duration, and frequency of occurrence, and used in a germ–grain model to quantify the annual area affected by extreme erosion events due to the intersection of fire disturbance and storms. The model indicates that the frequency of extreme erosion events will increase as a result of climate change, although regions with frequent storms were most sensitive.     

Sediment supply: The main driver of shelf-margin growth

Despite the obvious importance of sediment supply to shelf-margin architecture and to the potential of margins to contain and bypass deep-water sands, the role of supply in shelf-margin growth has received limited attention. High cross-shelf sediment flux is critically important for the occurrence of deep-water sands, not least on Greenhouse or rapidly subsiding margins where the impact of eustatic sea-level fall may be insufficient to drive sediment delivery out across the shelf into deep-water areas. To draw greater attention to the supply parameter we review a number of shelf margins that have grown chiefly through supply by shelf-edge deltas and associated sediment-gravity flows. Based on structural style and water depth, we recognize two broad types of shelf-margin. Moderately deep-water margins produce clinoforms < 1000 m high and show rates of shelf-edge progradation < 60 km/My and aggradation < 270 m/My, and consequently, infill their basins relatively rapidly, and develop more progradational architectures with morphologically smooth and relatively undeformed slopes. Very deep-water margins produce clinoforms > 1000 m high and generally show rates of shelf-edge progradation < 40 km/My and aggradation < 2500 m/My, and therefore infill their basins more slowly and develop more aggradational architectures with much gravity-driven slope deformation, proneness to failure and ponded architectures (salt or shale driven). On both margin types, long-term (> 1 My) rates of shelf-edge progradation of several tens of km/My tend to be linked to the delivery of relatively large volumes of sand into the deep-water basin. Delivery of this sand beyond the shelf-edge happens despite Greenhouse conditions and is likely recurrent and periodic (delivery cycles in the order of 100′s ky). Such prominent margin growth is a strong indication that sediment influx was relatively high and we refer to these margins as “supply-dominated” shelf margins. The Gulf of Mexico margin is a well-known and data-rich example of a “supply-dominated” shelf-margin during certain times (e.g., Paleocene). In contrast, on both margin types, low rates of shelf-edge progradation are linked to diminished (or even non-existent) and less frequently recurrent deep-water sediment delivery suggestive of relatively low sediment influx. Occurrence of deep-water sand delivery under low sediment influx probably requires fall of relative sea level. The differences between rapidly and slowly prograding margins indicate that sediment supply (and not sea level) is likely to be the key limiting factor on the growth of shelf margins and that sediment supply, as interpreted through progradation rate, can therefore be used to make a first-order prediction of relative amounts of sand passed to deep-water areas.     

Fast and Accurate Approximation to Kriging Using Common Data Neighborhoods

Unknown values of a random field can be predicted from observed data using kriging. As data sets grow in size, the computation times become large. To facilitate kriging with large data sets, an approximation where the kriging is performed in sub-segments with common data neighborhoods has been developed. It is shown how the accuracy of the approximation can be controlled by increasing the common data neighborhood. For four different variograms, it is shown how large the data neighborhoods must be to get an accuracy below a chosen threshold, and how much faster these calculations are compared to the kriging where all data are used. Provided that variogram ranges are small compared to the domain of interest, kriging with common data neighborhoods provides excellent speed-ups (2–40) while maintaining high numerical accuracy. Results are presented both for data neighborhoods where the neighborhoods are the same for all sub-segments, and data neighborhoods where the neighborhoods are adapted to fit the data densities around the sub-segments. Kriging in sub-segments with common data neighborhoods is well suited for parallelization and the speed-up is almost linear in the number of threads. A comparison is made to the widely used moving neighborhood approach. It is demonstrated that the accuracy of the moving neighborhood approach can be poor and that computational speed can be slow compared to kriging with common data neighborhoods.     

Latest Caledonian to Present tectonomorphological development of southern Norway

The regional resultant stress field of the northeastern North Atlantic has shifted significantly throughout the Phanerozoic. In Fennoscandian parts of the Caledonian orogen, mountain building, which was characterized by NW-SE contraction (reference to present North), was followed by a collapse with transport both parallel and transverse to the mountain chain. The Late Palaeozoic – Mesozoic saw several stages of E-W to NW-SE extension, varying in time and position. Local episodes of inversion are traceable in some cases, particularly in connection with deep-seated and long-lived zones of weakness. The Cenozoic has to a larger degree been affected by compression, including folding and basin inversion. Again some of the more pronounced effects of local inversion are related to pre-existing fault systems. Neogene uplift of the western mountainous area in Scandinavia can be unravelled by potential field study, AFT data and reflection seismic sections. Assuming that the region is close to isostatic equilibrium, the uplifted areas must be supported at depth by substantial volumes of low-density material within the crust or the mantle, close to the crust/mantle interface or close to the lithosphere/asthenosphere interfaces.     

Triassic seismic sequence stratigraphy and paleogeography of the western Barents Sea area

A sequence stratigraphic framework of the Triassic on the Norwegian Barents shelf is presented. The Triassic succession was subdivided into five second-order sequences based on facies analysis of 2D seismic data constrained by well data. The sequences were separated by maximum flooding surfaces that correlate seismically for hundreds of kilometers.     

A parallel block preconditioner for large-scale poroelasticity with highly heterogeneous material parameters

Large-scale simulations of coupled flow in deformable porous media require iterative methods for solving the systems of linear algebraic equations. Construction of efficient iterative methods is particularly challenging in problems with large jumps in material properties, which is often the case in realistic geological applications, such as basin evolution at regional scales. The success of iterative methods for such problems depends strongly on finding effective preconditioners with good parallel scaling properties, which is the topic of the present paper. We present a parallel preconditioner for Biot’s equations of coupled elasticity and fluid flow in porous media. The preconditioner is based on an approximation of the exact inverse of the two-by-two block system arising from a finite element discretisation. The approximation relies on a highly scalable approximation of the global Schur complement of the coefficient matrix, combined with generally available state-of-the-art multilevel preconditioners for the individual blocks. This preconditioner is shown to be robust on problems with highly heterogeneous material parameters. We investigate the weak and strong parallel scaling of this preconditioner on up to 512 processors and demonstrate its ability on a realistic basin-scale problem in poroelasticity with over eight million tetrahedral elements.     

Late Devensian ice‐marginal features in the central North Sea – processes and chronology

Palaeoglaciological reconstructions of the North Sea sector of the last British Ice Sheet have, as other shelf areas, suffered from a lack of dates directly related to ice‐front positions. In the present study new high‐resolution TOPAS seismic data, bathymetric records and sediment core data from the Witch Ground Basin, central North Sea, were compiled. This compilation made it possible to map out three ice‐marginal positions, partly through identification of terminal moraines and partly through location of glacial‐fed debrisflows. The interfingering of the distal parts of the glacial‐fed debrisflows with continuous marine sedimentation enabled the development of a chronology for glacial events based on previously published and some new radiocarbon dates on marine molluscs and foraminifera. From these data it is suggested that after the central Witch Ground Basin was deglaciated at c. 27 cal. ka BP, the eastern part was inundated by glacial ice from the east in the Tampen advance at c. 21 cal. ka BP. Subsequently, the basin was inundated by ice from northeast during the Fladen 1 (c. 17.5 cal. ka BP) and the Fladen 2 (16.2 cal. ka BP) events. It should be emphasized that the Fladen 1 and 2 events, individually, may represent dynamics of relatively small lobes of glacial ice at the margin of the British Ice Sheet and that the climatic significance of these may be questioned. However, the Fladen Events probably correlate in time with the Clogher Head and Killard Point re‐advances previously documented from Ireland and the Bremanger event from off western Norway, suggesting that the British and Fennoscandian ice sheets both had major advances in their northwestern parts, close to the northwestern European seaboard, at this time.     

A Triangular Form‐based Multiple Flow Algorithm to Estimate Overland Flow Distribution and Accumulation on a Digital Elevation Model

In this study, we present a newly developed method for the estimation of surface flow paths on a digital elevation model (DEM). The objective is to use a form‐based algorithm, analyzing flow over single cells by dividing them into eight triangular facets and to estimate the surface flow paths on a raster DEM. For each cell on a gridded DEM, the triangular form‐based multiple flow algorithm (TFM) was used to distribute flow to one or more of the eight neighbor cells, which determined the flow paths over the DEM. Because each of the eight facets covering a cell has a constant slope and aspect, the estimations of – for example – flow direction and divergence/convergence are more intuitive and less complicated than many traditional raster‐based solutions. Experiments were undertaken by estimating the specific catchment area (SCA) over a number of mathematical surfaces, as well as on a real‐world DEM. Comparisons were made between the derived SCA by the TFM algorithm with eight other algorithms reported in the literature. The results show that the TFM algorithm produced the closest outcomes to the theoretical values of the SCA compared with other algorithms, derived more consistent outcomes, and was less influenced by surface shapes. The real‐world DEM test shows that the TFM was capable of modeling flow distribution without noticeable ‘artefacts’, and its ability to track flow paths makes it an appropriate platform for dynamic surface flow simulation.     

Configuration,history and impact of the Norwegian Channel Ice Stream

The Norwegian Channel between Skagerrak, in the southeast, and the continental margin of the northern North Sea, in the northwest, is the result of processes related to repeated ice stream activity through the last 1.1 m yr. In such periods the Skagerrak Trough (700 m deep) has acted as a confluence area for glacial ice from southeastern Norway, southern Sweden and parts of the Baltic. Possibly related to the threshold in the Norwegian Channel off Jæren (250 m deep), the ice stream, on a number of occasions over the last 400 ka, inundated the coastal lowlands and left an imprint of NW‐oriented ice directional features (drumlins, stone orientations in tills and striations). Marine interstadial sediments found up to 200 m a.s.l. on Jæren have been suggested to reflect glacial isostasy related to the Norwegian Channel Ice Stream (NCIS). In the channel itself, the ice stream activity is evidenced by mega‐scale glacial lineations on till surfaces. As a result of subsidence, the most complete sedimentary records of early phases of the NCIS are preserved close to the continental margin in the North Sea Fan region. The strongest evidence for ice stream erosion during the last glacial phase is found in the Skagerrak. On the continental slope the ice stream activity is evidenced by the large North Sea Fan, which is mainly a result of deposition of glacial‐fed debris flows. Northwards of the North Sea Fan, rapid deposition of meltwater plume deposits, possibly related to the NCIS, is detected as far north as the Vøring Plateau. The NCIS system offers a unique possibility to study ice stream related processes and the impact the ice stream development had on open ocean sedimentation and circulation.     

Quality of geological CO2 storage to avoid jeopardizing climate targets

We explore allowable leakage for carbon capture and geological storage to be consistent with maximum global warming targets of 2.5 and 3 °C by 2100. Given plausible fossil fuel use and carbon capture and storage scenarios, and based on modeling of time-dependent leakage of CO₂, we employ a climate model to calculate the long-term temperature response of CO₂ emissions. We assume that half of the stored CO₂ is permanently trapped by fast mechanisms. If 40?% of global CO₂ emissions are stored in the second half of this century, the temperature effect of escaped CO₂ is too small to compromise a 2.5 °C target. If 80?% of CO₂ is captured, escaped CO₂ must peak 300?years or later for consistency with this climate target. Due to much more CO₂ stored for the 3 than the 2.5 °C target, quality of storage becomes more important. Thus for the 3 °C target escaped CO₂ must peak 400?years or later in the 40?% scenario, and 3000?years or later in the 80?% scenario. Consequently CO₂ escaped from geological storage can compromise the less stringent 3 °C target in the long-run if most of global CO₂ emissions have been stored. If less CO₂ is stored only a very high escape scenario can compromise the more stringent 2.5 °C target. For the two remaining combinations of storage scenarios and climate targets, leakage must be high to compromise these climate targets.