Impacts of climate change on building energy demands in the intra-Americas region

It was recently reported a regional warming in the intra-Americas region where sea surface temperature exhibited increases exceeding 0.15 °C/decade and an accelerated air temperature rise that could impact building energy demands per capita (EDC). Reanalysis data is used herein to quantify the impacts of these warming trends on EDC. Results of the analysis depict a Southern Greater Antilles and inland South America with a positive annual EDC rate of 1–5 kWh per year. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios were selected to analyze energy demand changes in the twenty-first century. A multi-model ensemble forecasts an EDC increase of 9.6 and 23 kWh/month in the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 at the end of the twenty-first century, which may increase average building cooling loads in the region by 7.57 GW (RCP2.6) and 8.15 GW (RCP4.5), respectively. Furthermore, 4 of 9 (RCP2.6) and 7 of 9 (RCP4.5) of the major countries in this region have EDCs ranging between 1887 and 2252 kWh/year at the end of this century. Therefore, increased energy production and improved energy infrastructure will be required to maintain ideal indoor building conditions at the end of the twenty-first century in these tropical coastal regions as consequence of a warmer climate.     

Effect of asymmetrical street canyons on pedestrian thermal comfort in warm-humid climate of Cuba

Walkability and livability in cities can be enhanced by creating comfortable environments in the streets. The profile of an urban street canyon has a substantial impact on outdoor thermal conditions at pedestrian level. This paper deals with the effect of asymmetrical street canyon profiles, common in the historical centre of Camagüey, Cuba, on outdoor thermal comfort. Temporal-spatial analyses are conducted using the Heliodon2 and the RayMan model, which enable the generation of accurate predictions about solar radiation and thermal conditions of urban spaces, respectively. On these models, urban settings are represented by asymmetrical street canyons with five different height-to-width ratios and four street axis orientations (N-S, NE-SW, E-W, SE-NW). Results are evaluated for daytime hours across the street canyon, by means of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET index) which allows the evaluation of the bioclimatic conditions of outdoor environments. Our findings revealed that high profiles (façades) located on the east-facing side of N-S streets, on the southeast-facing side of NE-SW streets, on the south-facing side of E-W street, and on the southwest-facing side of SE-NW streets, are recommended to reduce the total number of hours under thermal stress. E-W street canyons are the most thermally stressed ones, with extreme PET values around 36 °C. Deviating from this orientation ameliorates the heat stress with reductions of up to 4 h in summer. For all analysed E-W orientations, only about one fifth of the street can be comfortable, especially for high aspect ratios (H/W > 3). Optimal subzones in the street are next to the north side of the E-W street, northwest side of the NE-SW street, and southwest side of the SE-NW street. Besides, when the highest profile is located on the east side of N-S streets, then the subzone next to the east-facing façade is recommendable for pedestrians. The proposed urban guidelines enable urban planners to create and renovate urban spaces which are more efficient in diminishing pedestrian thermal stress.     

Human mortality impacts of the 2015 summer heat spells in Slovakia

In 2015, Central Europe experienced an unusually warm summer season. For a great majority of climatic stations around Slovakia, it had been the warmest summer ever recorded over their entire instrumental observation period. In this study, we investigate the mortality effects of hot days’ sequences during that particular summer on the Slovak population. In consideration of the range of available mortality data, the position of 2015 is analysed within the years 1996–2015. Over the given 20-year period, the summer heat spells of 2015 were by far the most severe from a meteorological point of view, and clearly the deadliest with the total of almost 540 excess deaths. In terms of impacts, an extraordinary 10-day August heat spell was especially remarkable. The massive lethal effects of heat would have likely been even more serious under normal circumstances, since the number of premature deaths appeared to be partially reduced due to a non-standard mortality pattern in the first quarter of the year. The heat spells of the extremely warm summer of 2015 in Slovakia are notable not just for their short-term response in mortality. It appears that in a combination with the preceding strong influenza season, they subsequently affected mortality conditions in the country in the following months up until the end of the year. The impacts described above were rather different for selected population subgroups (men and women, the elderly). Both separately and as a part of the annual mortality cycle, the 2015 summer heat spells may represent a particularly valuable source of information for public health.     

Changes in heat wave characteristics over Extremadura (SW Spain)

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Heat wave (HW) events are becoming more frequent, and they have important consequences because of the negative effects they can have not only on the human...     

A GIS-based fire spread simulator integrating a simplified physical wildland fire model and a wind field model

??This article discusses the integration of two models, namely, the Physical Forest Fire Spread (PhFFS) and the High Definition Wind Model (HDWM), into a Geographical Information System-based interface. The resulting tool automates data acquisition, preprocesses spatial data, launches the aforementioned models and displays the corresponding results in a unique environment. Our implementation uses the Python language and Esri’s ArcPy library to extend the functionality of ArcMap 10.4. The PhFFS is a simplified 2D physical wildland fire spread model based on conservation equations, with convection and radiation as heat transfer mechanisms. It also includes some 3D effects. The HDWM arises from an asymptotic approximation of the Navier–Stokes equations, and provides a 3D wind velocity field in an air layer above the terrain surface. Both models can be run in standalone or coupled mode. Finally, the simulation of a real fire in Galicia (Spain) confirms that the tool developed is efficient and fully operational.     

Ozone structure over the equatorial Andes from balloon-borne observations and zonal connection with two tropical sea level sites

In this paper we present first-time measurements of ozone profiles from a high altitude station in Quito, Ecuador (0.19°S, 78.4°W, and 2391 masl) taken from June 2014 to September 2015. We interpret ozone observations in the troposphere, tropopause, and stratosphere through a zonal comparison with data from stations in the Atlantic and Pacific (Natal and San Cristobal from the SHADOZ network). Tropospheric ozone concentrations above the Andes are lower than ozone over San Cristobal and Natal for similar time periods. Ozone variability and pollution layers are also reduced in the troposphere above the Andes. We explain these differences in terms of reduced contributions from the boundary layer and from horizontal transport. In the tropical tropopause layer, ozone is well-mixed up to near the cold point tropopause level. In this regard, our profiles do not show constraints to deep mixing above 14 km, as has been consistently observed at other tropical stations. Total column ozone and stratospheric column ozone are comparable among the three sites. However, the contribution of tropospheric column ozone to total column ozone is significantly lower above the Andes. Our comparisons provide a connection between observations from tropical stations in equatorial South America separated by the wide continental mass. Identified differences in ozone throughout the atmospheric column demonstrate the global benefit of having an ozone sounding station at the equatorial Andes in support of global monitoring networks.     

Edge-to-Stem Variability in Wet-Canopy Evaporation From an Urban Tree Row

Evaporation from wet-canopy (\(E_\mathrm{C}\)) and stem (\(E_\mathrm{S}\)) surfaces during rainfall represents a significant portion of municipal-to-global scale hydrologic cycles. For urban ecosystems, \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and \(E_\mathrm{S}\) dynamics play valuable roles in stormwater management. Despite this, canopy-interception loss studies typically ignore crown-scale variability in \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and assume (with few indirect data) that \(E_\mathrm{S}\) is generally \({<}2\%\) of total wet-canopy evaporation. We test these common assumptions for the first time with a spatially-distributed network of in-canopy meteorological monitoring and 45 surface temperature sensors in an urban Pinus elliottii tree row to estimate \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and \(E_\mathrm{S}\) under the assumption that crown surfaces behave as “wet bulbs”. From December 2015 through July 2016, 33 saturated crown periods (195 h of 5-min observations) were isolated from storms for determination of 5-min evaporation rates ranging from negligible to 0.67 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\). Mean \(E_\mathrm{S}\) (0.10 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\)) was significantly lower (\(p < 0.01\)) than mean \(E_\mathrm{C}\) (0.16 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\)). But, \(E_\mathrm{S}\) values often equalled \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and, when scaled to trunk area using terrestrial lidar, accounted for 8–13% (inter-quartile range) of total wet-crown evaporation (\(E_\mathrm{S}+E_\mathrm{C}\) scaled to surface area). \(E_\mathrm{S}\) contributions to total wet-crown evaporation maximized at 33%, showing a general underestimate (by 2–17 times) of this quantity in the literature. Moreover, results suggest wet-crown evaporation from urban tree rows can be adequately estimated by simply assuming saturated tree surfaces behave as wet bulbs, avoiding problematic assumptions associated with other physically-based methods.     

GPS Water Vapor and Its Comparison with Radiosonde and ERA-Interim Data in Algeria

Remote sensing of atmospheric water vapor using global positioning system(GPS) data has become an effective tool in meteorology,weather forecasting and climate research. This paper presents the estimation of precipitable water(PW)from GPS observations and meteorological data in Algeria,over three stations located at Algiers,Bechar and Tamanrasset.The objective of this study is to analyze the sensitivity of the GPS PW estimates for the three sites to the weighted mean temperature(T_m),obtained separately from two types of T_m–T_s regression [one general,and one developed specifically for Algeria(T_s stands for surface temperature)],and calculated directly from ERA-Interim data. The results show that the differences in T_m are of the order of 18 K,producing differences of 2.01 mm in the final evaluation of PW. A good agreement is found between GPS-PW and PW calculated from radiosondes,with a small mean difference with Vaisala radiosondes.A comparison between GPS and ERA-Interim shows a large difference(4 mm) in the highlands region. This difference is possibly due to the topography. These first results are encouraging,in particular for meteorological applications in this region,with good hope to extend our dataset analysis to a more complete,nationwide coverage over Algeria.     

The impacts of a plume-rise scheme on earth system modeling: climatological effects of biomass aerosols on the surface temperature and energy budget of South America

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Seasonal forest fires in the Amazon are the largest source of pollutants in South America. The impacts of aerosols due to biomass burning on the temperature...     

The influence of elevation on soil properties and forest litter in the Siliceous Moncayo Massif,SW Europe

Understanding the effects of elevation and related factors (climate, vegetation) on the physical and chemical soil properties can help to predict changes in response to future climate or afforestation forcings. This work aims to contribute to the knowledge of soil evolution and the classification of forest soils in relation to elevation in the montane stage, with special attention to podzolization and humus forms. The northern flank of the Moncayo Massif (Iberian Range, SW Europe) provides a unique opportunity to study a forest soils catena within a consistent quartzitic parent material over a relatively steep elevation gradient. With increasing elevation, pH, base saturation, exchangeable potassium, and fine silt-sized particles decrease significantly, while organic matter, the C/N ratio, soil aggregate stability, water repellency and coarse sand-sized particles increase significantly. The soil profiles shared a set of properties in all horizons: loamy-skeletal particle-size, extreme acidity (pH-H₂O<5.6) and low base saturation (<50%). The most prevalent soil forming processes in the catena include topsoil organic matter accumulation and even podzolization, which increases with elevation. From the upper to lower landscape positions of wooded montane stage of the Moncayo Massif, mull-moder-mor humus and an Umbrisol-Cambisol-Podzol soil unit sequences were found.